2021 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

GENESIS014, EP, E, , , , , 75, 2021, DB, O, 2021072900, 9999999999, , 014, , , , GENESIS, , EP752021

What is this? Link?

GENSIS EP752021 so that might be a new disturbance that likely will end up as 91E.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS showing 4 systems behind 90/99E and 1 weak one in front of 99E from a disturbance near 130W (not shown).

[Kingarabian]

We need another invest tag for the large disturbance near 10N/130W.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 10.1N 134.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2021 24 10.2N 134.2W 1008 25
1200UTC 30.07.2021 36 10.0N 134.1W 1007 27
0000UTC 31.07.2021 48 9.7N 133.8W 1007 30
1200UTC 31.07.2021 60 9.6N 133.5W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.08.2021 72 9.1N 133.4W 1008 24
1200UTC 01.08.2021 84 CEASED TRACKING

Quite the look this evening for the EPAC:

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1420756382375047176

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS showing 3 after 90/99E while 0z ECMWF is showing 2.

[Yellow Evan]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1420756382375047176?s=21

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1420760581557022736

[Yellow Evan]

EPS mean suggests we stay busy through mid-August for the most part.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows two powerful hurricanes in the long range.

[Kingarabian]

A blend of tracks from the 12z GFS and 12z Euro show potential of 1-3 risks for Hawaii over the next 2 weeks.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF calling for genesis in 48 hours, and making it a potent hurricane down the line.

[Kingarabian]

Three large disturbances looks impressive for a -ENSO/-PMM-/-PDO year. But then you see the vast amount of dry air to the N/NW of the basin and of course the shear.

[cycloneye]

The new one.

An area of disturbed weather has formed several hundred miles
south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional gradual
development is possible during the next several days while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/870325832286089246/eps_chi200_anomaly_hov_equatorial_2021072900_MEAN.png

EPS mean suggests we stay busy through mid-August for the most part.

GEFS up to its usual tricks but the EPS has formidable conditions returning again in late August/early September. Door might be open for a bit more active of a season than expected depending on how this verifies and how much the basin takes advantage of the conditions though the next week or so will be our initial taste.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS still showing a strong hurricane just past day 10. Unless the GFS is right when it comes and we actually have a bit of a standing wave, this won't verify.

[Kingarabian]

Recent modeling shows a lot of support for 5 systems over the next 2 weeks including the circled areas.

Assuming these all become named systems and a lull in activity follows, it would still leave the basin another 2 whole months for more systems. So it's looking like something close to 1990 (quantity with some quality) is in the cards. As long as the next 3 systems actually form.

[Yellow Evan]

I know 1990 was discussed as an analog earlier and it had a similar SST configuration but also had an American standing wave (which enhanced convection over the Americas) and a more favorable ENSO with activity shifted a bit more east than this season has been so far. If and this is a big if given what tends to happen historically anytime the models show a massive TC outbreak we get 4-5 storms in the next 2.5 weeks, we’re probably in position to get 100 units of ACE maybe a little more. Something like 1974 is probably more sensible comparison under more optimistic scenarios, and something like 2001 being the most likely.

[Category5Kaiju]

Three large disturbances looks impressive for a -ENSO/-PMM-/-PDO year. But then you see the vast amount of dry air to the N/NW of the basin and of course the shear.

https://i.imgur.com/NQnFSP8.gif

Yeah convection-wise, that looks like an El Nino year. But then as you said all three of those phases are negative, and there is definitely noticeable amounts of shear and dry air. I think in the end the climatology will win out and the EPAC will slowly become less active by I would say mid to late August or so; almost seems like the EPAC is trying to cram all of its big guns in before the potential weak La Nina exerts its influence later this season.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of disturbed weather continues several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional gradual
development is expected during the next several days, and the
system could become a tropical depression early next week while it
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Nancy Smar]

GENESIS014, EP, E, , , , , 75, 2021, DB, O, 2021072900, 9999999999, , 014, , , , GENESIS, , EP752021

What is this? Link?

GENSIS EP752021 so that might be a new disturbance that likely will end up as 91E.

Link: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/index/EP_storms.txt.nhc

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles
off the coast of southern Mexico are associated with a trough of low
pressure. Gradual development of this system is expected during
the next several days, and it could become a tropical depression
early next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.