2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Astromanía]

0Z GFS looks like a realistic solution based on climo, a Cat 1/2 in the BoC. Texas could be in play here as well as both GEFS and EPS have some members slightly more north.

https://i.imgur.com/AcD825Y.png

Alex flashbacks

[cycloneye]

Dr Ventrice says not so fast.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1535602222700060673




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1535602616582938624




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1535603063347634177

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Euro has a strong tropical wave exiting the coast of Africa in the medium-long range.


EPS has picked up on this as well it appears, with a small signal.


Don't think much will come out of it as it is June after all but just a curiosity for now.

[Monsoonjr99]

Don't think much will come out of it as it is June after all but just a curiosity for now.

True. Seems even farther north than 95L last year which didn't quite develop.

[skyline385]

With the recent waves popping off on the models, MDR action might not be far behind. Obviously this is very long range so take it with a grain of salt

[skyline385]

Happy hour GFS going off at 84 hours, this is probably the earliest so far.

[aspen]

Happy Hour GFS gets interesting real quick today. It has a TC in the SW Caribbean at only 90 hours out, and it becomes a Cat 1 on its way to the Yucatán Peninsula.

[skyline385]

GFS going for 3

[MHC Tracking]

Normally would throw a run like this out entirely, especially given the time of year, but seeing the time of genesis slowly but surely moving up for this potential CAG system in the NATL, as well as increasing ECENS support, makes me think the signal may be legitimate. Intensity is still very likely too high but that should correct itself as we move forward in time.

[Europa non è lontana]

00z GFS, CMA, and ARPEGE are on board with a SW Caribbean spin-up around +96, although personally I would hesitate to take them at their word given that there is no concurrence with any of the Euro, ICON, or UKMet models, as they do not model development.

[MHC Tracking]

00z ECENS today has increased support somewhat significantly relative to 00z and 12z yesterday.

[cycloneye]

NHC does not bite yet.

[kevin]

Storm genesis already occurs at +66 hrs on 06z GFS, eventually strikes Mexico as a hurricane twice.

[Zonacane]

That’s a legit signal

[wxman57]

NHC does not bite yet.

Just another GFS modelcane. It's all by itself in predicting anything significant developing. It also has quite strong wind shear in the region.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Normally I would dismiss this as a faux signal but it does have two things going for it:
1. Lead time moving up significantly instead of regressing
2. There is support from the EPS (and GEPS/CMC ensembles as well)

With that being said, I do think the GFS is spinning it up way too quickly, which perhaps gives it the appearance of an unrealistic fantasycane with its fast intensification; this scenario is unlikely IMO. If something does in fact end up forming I could see a TS perhaps before it eventually runs into land.

[InfernoFlameCat]

NHC does not bite yet.

Just another GFS modelcane. It's all by itself in predicting anything significant developing. It also has quite strong wind shear in the region.

I want to disagree but you are rarely wrong. Gosh darn.

[aspen]

NHC does not bite yet.

They might wait another day to see if any other operational model picks up on it. Right now, the only global/operational model showing this system is the GFS, with a variety of ensemble support in the EPS, GEFS, and GEPS. EPS is the weakest (as usual), GEFS is the strongest, and the GEPS has a decent amount of members in support of the system despite nothing on the operational CMC.

If the time frame has remained the same (mid-week) in tomorrow’s model runs, then the NHC might give it a lemon.

[skyline385]

GFS continuing to move forward in time, give it a lemon NHC

EDIT: I may have jinxed it

[aspen]

GFS continuing to move forward in time, give it a lemon NHC

EDIT: I may have jinxed it

https://i.imgur.com/kwy2k5G.png

Time frame remains the same: development on Wednesday into Thursday.

I think some of the GFS’s weak ridge bias is at play here, causing the storm to be dragged north to avoid Nicaragua/Honduras.