2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[IcyTundra]

Since the full run of the 0Z GEFS isn't out yet I am looking at the 18Z GEFS. Just eyeballing it roughly 1/4 of the 31 members show development which is pretty mild support. I am going to remain skeptical of any significant development until the Euro and its ensemble suite comes on board.

[Stratton23]

Euro is on board with development now, recurves off the east coast , tracks aren’t important at this range though, the fact that the euro has jumped on board is pretty big though

[LarryWx]

Euro is on board with development now, recurves off the east coast , tracks aren’t important at this range though, the fact that the euro has jumped on board is pretty big though

~30% of EPS have a TC

[GCANE]

Erin has swept out SAL.
Next:
00Z GFS has a protected pouch developing off Africa in the ITCZ in about 2 days.
Traveling across the MDR, shooting the FL strait into the GoM, and then 946mb direct hit on NOLA 306hrs out.

[jlauderdal]

Erin has swept out SAL.
Next:
00Z GFS has a protected pouch developing off Africa in the ITCZ in about 2 days.
Traveling across the MDR, shooting the FL strait into the GoM, and then 946mb direct hit on NOLA 306hrs out.

Euro on the recurve with Florida in the middle between the gfs and euro, seen that setup before, just a few times

[N2FSU]

6z GFS


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[N2FSU]

0z GFS




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[LAF92]

[imgur][/imgur]
06z ECENS starting to uptick

[AnnularCane]

Erin has swept out SAL.
Next:
00Z GFS has a protected pouch developing off Africa in the ITCZ in about 2 days.
Traveling across the MDR, shooting the FL strait into the GoM, and then 946mb direct hit on NOLA 306hrs out.

Haven't heard "pouch" in a few years.

[ROCK]

12Z GFS wipes out NO...06Z wipes out Houston /Galveston...I predict Miami will be obliterated in the 12Z. Just a hunch.

[jlauderdal]

12Z GFS wipes out NO...06Z wipes out Houston /Galveston...I predict Miami will be obliterated in the 12Z. Just a hunch.

We were hit by model cane Erin last week so expect more of the same.

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[ROCK]

12Z GFS wipes out NO...06Z wipes out Houston /Galveston...I predict Miami will be obliterated in the 12Z. Just a hunch.

We were hit by model cane Erin last week so expect more of the same.

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What really sucks is I am moving from Central Texas to the West End of Galveston on the 23rd. Really don't need the stress.

[Stratton23]

06z GFS wallops texas

[ROCK]

06z GFS wallops texas

Yeah cat 4 at 935ish..that NE quad over Galveston / Houston would be worst case scenario. Thankfully its one model run at 306hrs lol....

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS going through the islands:

[cycloneye]

12z GFS continues to develop wave begind Erin. Tracks thru DR/ Haiti, part of Cuba and reach the Keys. Peeps, go from there.

[LAF92]

12z GFS going through the islands:

https://i.postimg.cc/kX6QwxNX/floop-gfs-2025081612-sfcwind-mslp-watl.gif

Gets shredded in the DR but resurrects after it passes thru Cuba

[BobHarlem]

A run through the Florida keys on the 12z gfs:

[hurricane2025]

Gfs notorious for strong trough thst won’t happen in August I promise

[LAF92]

Gfs notorious for strong trough thst won’t happen in August I promise

The strong trough would mean?