Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET

UKMET shows formation in SE GOM and moves to Texas central Coast.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure what it is.

[skysummit]

I can't see any turning on satellite loop.

It's there. Plus the NHC disco mentions it.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Can't tell if this is now a semi-offical JB prediction or not, but Texas as at least a tropical storm, just now, on the PPV JB page.


This weekend.

[Steve]

>>UKMET shows formation in SE GOM and moves to Texas central Coast.

Trending northward at the end of the run toward possibly Galveston or the GT area. Hmmmm.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

12z UKMET

UKMET shows formation in SE GOM and moves to Texas central Coast.

But the UK Met Center text product doesn't have anything.

[Steve]

>>Can't tell if this is now a semi-offical JB prediction or not, but Texas as at least a tropical storm, just now, on the PPV JB page.

"at least a tropical storm" ain't the same as "probably a major", but we'll see with the evolution of time.

Steve

[MiamiensisWx]

It's not a sign of immediate development, but Bahamian convection is developing right on cue:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

I think the TWD mentioned low-level turning near the Turks and Caicos/far SE Bahamas, too.

[xironman]

It is a bit hard to see, a bit more of a twist than a turn. If you center at about 77W 25N you can see the low clouds heading NW on your right. To your left they are going SW. To the south the appear to almost be stationary in the last frames.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

New Euro has it near Corpus Sunday.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yesterday it was New Orleans. No reason to start pinpointing Houston or Golden Triangle with nothing "formed" yet. Long week ahead.

[cycloneye]

New Euro has it near Corpus Sunday.

The Link?

[Portastorm]

Here's a link to the 12z Euro ... hit on/near Corpus:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Meso]

Long awaited 12z EURO

[bigGbear]

[img]

Long awaited 12z EURO

Doesn't look like 12z

[ronjon]

Meso, that's actually today's 00Z run.

[skysummit]

The 12z EURO....really

[Meso]

Arg my bad.. I had the 12z run and then clicked back to change the forecast time and the date of the run went back with my browser :/ It'll teach me to sit and 'refresh' for 10 minutes

[Ed Mahmoud]

Cut-n-paste of relevant part of KBRO AFD...


ALTHOUGH LOCAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH HEADING INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK...NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT MULTIPLE
FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO DEVELOP A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. A LINGERING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH OR
LOW DIGGING SOUTH...AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
CARRIBEAN WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO FORMING A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
THAT MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS MODEL
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE LOW DRIFTING WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND THEN INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

[ronjon]

I think we are slowly beginning to see a model consensus developing on a system developing off the east coast of FL near the Bahamas. GFS, CMC, & NAM showing this development. There will be the mid-level energy dropping SW off of NE FL which may be the spark to get the convection going over the Bahamas spinning into a low pressure system. The question now is how strong it will get prior to moving west over the FL peninsula - will it stay weak or will it pull a Katrina? In either case, once it's in the GOM there can be little doubt what will happen then.