ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

March 20th is the official start for Spring season and that's less than a month way. I think what this El-Nino does between now and then will be the game changer.

[Darvince]

And what it's looking like it will do is have another strong WWB, with no signs of any sort of strong easterlies after that until at least the spring equinox.

[cycloneye]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 6m6 minutes ago

We're going to come back to this in 3-4 weeks when the downwelling oceanic KW attenuates in the eastern Pac. Bad CFS

[cycloneye]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 24m24 minutes ago

HUGE signal for La Nina right around the corner via the evolution of a strong upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave o/the DL

[AJC3]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 24m24 minutes ago

HUGE signal for La Nina right around the corner via the evolution of a strong upwelling oceanic Kelvin wave o/the DL

I'll say....

[Kingarabian]

SOI needs to flip positive soon for it to catch up with that large pool of cool water.

[Dean_175]

SOI needs to flip positive soon for it to catch up with that large pool of cool water.

SOI probably won't flip positive until after warm SSTAs dissipate.

[Hurricaneman]

SOI needs to flip positive soon for it to catch up with that large pool of cool water.

SOI probably won't flip positive until after warm SSTAs dissipate.

It will cool very shortly but for the short term ENSO 1/2 are going to warm due to the wwb

[Kingarabian]

The easterlies have to be in place once those cool anomalies start to emerge. Or else the anomalies will be blown off.

[Ntxw]

2.1C this week, thats a more pronounced fall from 2.4C last week

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC 2/29/16 update that has Nino 3.4 going down (+2.1C) more faster than in the past few weeks but still the SOI is well negative and Kelvin Waves can still halt the dip.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

The current wwb doesn't seem to be causing a kelvin wave but if it continues we may get one the first week of March

[Hurricaneman]

The amount of convection over the southwestern Pacific for the past several days has been absolutely incredible, with nearly a solid covering of convection for that entire time across the entire region. Yet only Winston has come from that insane blob, sitting on its southern edge for the past week and a half.

Impressive WWB, but not as strong as the last record-breaking one:

What site is this image from

[stormwise]

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz2-6wwVnZs

long but very interesting

[cycloneye]

The Aussies dip El Nino to Moderate (Below +2C) different from CPC that is still at the strong category at +2.1C.

El Niño continues to influence global climate as it weakens

Issued on 1 March 2016 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The 2015–16 El Niño is now at moderate levels, and is likely to end in the second quarter of 2016. History and model outlooks indicate that neutral conditions are slightly favoured ahead of La Niña for the second half of 2016. Short term fluctuations in the various El Niño Indicators will continue, particularly during the southern tropical cyclone season.

The past fortnight has seen sea surface and below-surface cooling in the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The Nino3.4 index, a key El Niño Indicator, is now below +2 °C for the first time since September 2015, suggesting moderate El Niño levels. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index remains negative at moderate levels. A recent temporary weakening of the trade winds has only slightly slowed the decline of El Niño

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,why the Aussies always are ahead of CPC in their updates? In this case they dip El Nino to moderate while CPC is still at the strong threshold.

[Ntxw]

Bom seems to have 2C as strong while CPC is 1.5C or higher. Also their climo datasets are a bit different as well

[cycloneye]

Bom seems to have 2C as strong while CPC is 1.5C or higher. Also their climo datasets are a bit different as well

Thanks as always.

[Dean_175]

ONI for DJF is at 2.24C. Though the exact value will change in the next couple of months ( ERSST employs time-based filters of the data), this is a record for the DJF trimonthly. February came in at 2.19C -which is also a record.
This is the fourth consecutive ONI > 2.0C , and is the third above 2.1C- which makes this the second strongest El Nino on record-just behind 1997- in terms of the highest value reached in three consecutive ONI readings.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 fell below 2C for the first time since August to 1.9C. The only other change was Nino 1+2 is now back up to 1C