ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Let's hope it's fixed at 06z on 3/29/16.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 8m8 minutes ago

CFSv2 update to fix South Atlantic equatorial ocean abnormality failed at 06z. EMC to try again Tuesday.

[cycloneye]

Large subsurface cold pool moving eastward.

[cycloneye]

CFSv2 after the fix for August.

[Alyono]

That's looking a bit more favorable for the Atlantic as the cool waters are not just tied to the equator. Not ideal, but not awful either.

Also, not good for Hawaii. Look at the warm waters surrounding them

[cycloneye]

CFSv2 for September.

[SFLcane]

Hmm...unfavorable capeverde season cold MDR

[WPBWeather]

Umm. I think you are overreading a balky pic for the CFS--even after the corrections today. Both camps are grasping a bit on the ATL and MDR. Lets get a few more weeks and better runs to get a clearer picture.

[Andrew92]

That still looks a bit like 1959, but slightly more favorable for the Atlantic than that year. Cold anomalies in the EPAC were very squelched to almost just the Equator that year. This sample has cold anomalies close to the EPAC MDR at least.

I could maybe see one decent hurricane in the Atlantic MDR with this setup. But I agree with Alyono that this still isn't exactly the best setup for a particularly busy season. I also don't like the setup for Hawaii at all, but it's very early for now, not to mention difficult overall to get a hurricane there in the first place in favorable conditions.

-Andrew 92

[cycloneye]

The drip,drip,drip of Nino 3.4 continues.

[J_J99]

Its amazing to see Mother Nature in action with this El Nino, the strongest one in my lifetime so far. It also looks as if that this El Nino is collapsing at a rate eerily similar to the 1997-1998 El Nino. La Nina is looking very likely by summer IMHO.

[Kingarabian]

90 day SOI is knee's deep in El-Nino territory.

[xcool22]

That still looks a bit like 1959, but slightly more favorable for the Atlantic than that year. Cold anomalies in the EPAC were very squelched to almost just the Equator that year. This sample has cold anomalies close to the EPAC MDR at least.

I could maybe see one decent hurricane in the Atlantic MDR with this setup. But I agree with Alyono that this still isn't exactly the best setup for a particularly busy season. I also don't like the setup for Hawaii at all, but it's very early for now, not to mention difficult overall to get a hurricane there in the first place in favorable conditions.

-Andrew 92

what you meaing I also don't like the setup for Hawaii at all ?

[cycloneye]

Some recent ensemble member forecasts (Blue lines) go way down to strong La Nina after the CFSv2 fix but I think the complete result of the fix we haven't seen it yet entirely.

[Andrew92]

That still looks a bit like 1959, but slightly more favorable for the Atlantic than that year. Cold anomalies in the EPAC were very squelched to almost just the Equator that year. This sample has cold anomalies close to the EPAC MDR at least.

I could maybe see one decent hurricane in the Atlantic MDR with this setup. But I agree with Alyono that this still isn't exactly the best setup for a particularly busy season. I also don't like the setup for Hawaii at all, but it's very early for now, not to mention difficult overall to get a hurricane there in the first place in favorable conditions.

-Andrew 92

what you meaing I also don't like the setup for Hawaii at all ?

Lots of warm anomalies being forecast in the area. Also consider that 1959 (possibly a strong analog for this year) was a year in which Hawaii got hit by a hurricane, as well as 1992 which had warmer anomalies there but overall not too different. But I wouldn't panic if I lived there as it is very early. Just have a plan in case it happens.

-Andrew92

[xcool22]

okay thanks

[Ntxw]

Sea levels are lowering across the equatorial Pacific. Definitely signs of an incoming potential La Nina. You can also see the thermocline slope deepening (slope = Nina; flat = Nino). Slope is deepening of warm waters in the far WPAC and cool upwelling in the eastern basin.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 4/4/16 has Nino 3.4 the same as last week at +1.5C.ONI is down to +2.0C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

That JFM ONI reading, while down, is the strongest for that trimonthly period. Beating both 82 and 97's 1.8C. Also ties 1997 with the most 2C or greater trimonthlies and the latest 2C reading. So in the books the ending Nino was a long duration, very strong event.

[Ntxw]

Subsurface Nina post! Subsurface cold anomalies are impressive. A little better than 2010, a little behind (in terms of deeper values) than 1998 so maybe a Nina in-between? Though both events peaked around -1.4C which is borderline moderate to strong. There has never been an official "super" Nina so to speak; stronger than -2C. 1973-1974 is the strongest since 1950 at -1.9C. I don't think we will match this one, in April of 1973 the Nina was already well underway at the surface and by May-June you had a full fledged Nina.

1998



2010



2016



Of course a lot on how much surfaces depends on the winds. Will need stronger than normal trades to really kick it up.

[Ntxw]

Here is the subsurface cross of April 1973. Courtesy of ecmwf ocean reanalysis