NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[OuterBanker]

Not a good beach day in Cancun, S Fl or Cuba.

Come to the OBX, weathers perfect here

[Aric Dunn]

Ship very near the location of the developing circ. confirms the surface obs and pressure. pressure 1010mb quite a bit lower than any other reports.

[southerngale]

Please do not hotlink images. Use the built-in ImageShack uploader or another uploading site of your choice. There is a sticky in this forum, and in Active Storms, reminding members of this. Thank you.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111217

[Vortex]

Won't be long folks...18Z GFS rolls in 40 min...

[crimi481]

Lowest pressure falls n S.E. sections of Gulf - at Bouy's are on S.W. Fl Coast (Ft Meyers - and Venice) 29.93

[Rgv20]

Aric/Mike/Rgv20 ,are the GFS,CMC and ECMWF ensembles out?

12zECMWF Eensemble Means just came out and its a mess! lol By 120hrs they have the low anywhere from just N of BOC to NE GOM. IMO this looks to be a Florida or a Central/NE Mexican Storm, still to early to make a call right now. The 12zCMC Ensembles just rolling in, going to be interesting what they show.

[MGC]

There are 4 areas of vorticity affecting the GOM currently. There are two ULL, one over extreme south Texas and another over the Florida panhandle. These ULL are causing a good bit of shear over the Gulf. There are two lows of concern at lower levels. The low west of Key West is devoid of convection due to dry air...this dry air and shear should preclude its development. The low currently near the coast of the western Yucatan is IMO the one to watch. It is currenly interacting with land but, it is moving northward and by tomorrow should be clear of significant land interaction. It is in a much more moisture rich enviroment and a slightly more favorable enviroment in reguards to shear. So, count me in on the Yucatan spin to be the one to become an invest....MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Evil Jeremy]

I can't wait to get some GFDL/HWRF runs on this, but this still needs to be tagged first... Shouldn't be too long now. 10 minutes till new GFS.

[Hurricane Andrew]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal024.gif
Hour 24: Low on N Yuc.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS...54 hours



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[tolakram]

Swirl becoming better defined every hour.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[floridasun78]

so models are picking up low over Yucatan

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS..84 hours



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[tolakram]

Updating this for the 12z euro, 120 hours

120 hour model maps. May the best model win.

all saved

[Weatherfreak000]

Models adamant on taking this to Florida it seems.

[tailgater]

Updating this for the 12z euro, 120 hours

120 hour model maps. May the best model win.

all saved

Thanks Mark

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS..96 hours

Churning in the middle of the Gulf..getting left behind?



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[Dean4Storms]

A good overview .......... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrA2IrxqNBo

edit by tolakram: added disclaimer

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

102 hours...I think the trough will get it



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[tolakram]

Back out a bit and ... may the best swirl win?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5