2015 EPAC Season

#701 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:39 pm

Both the storms on the TWO could also form outside the 5 day window.

#702 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:36 am

A low pressure area is expected to form well south of the coast of
Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions should support
gradual development of the system while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

#703 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 2:04 pm

A low pressure area is expected to form well south of the coast of
Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions should support
gradual development of the system while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

#704 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:02 pm

Another broad area of low pressure located about 1050 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the
next several days while it moves northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

A low pressure area is expected to form well south of the coast of
Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions should support
gradual development of the system while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

#705 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 12:54 pm

12z GFS shows what I've been waiting for a long time

#706 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 1:24 pm

lol here we go again. Thank goodness it's so far out.

#707 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:17 pm

Is that future 97E or currently 96E?

Euro was showing something similar but weaker.

#708 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:51 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Is that future 97E or currently 96E?

Euro was showing something similar but weaker.

What the ECMWF shows is 95E.

What the GFS shows is 10 days out and future 97E.

#709 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:52 pm

3. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with
a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this week while this system moves westward and
then west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

#710 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:29 am

Disorganized shower activity located several hundred miles south of
the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated with a tropical
wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

#711 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 7:50 am

0z GFS

6z GFS

#712 Postby **Kingarabian** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:18 pm

Doubt the CPAC can handle a cat. 5 this year. Maybe until 145W.

#713 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 6:34 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Doubt the CPHC can handle a cat. 5 this year. Maybe until 145W.

It could IMO if the shear is low.

#714 Postby **Extratropical94** » Tue Aug 25, 2015 9:43 am

Vertical instability is above the climatological average for this time of the year in the CPAC, shear is also not too high and FWIW,
the maximum potential intensity maps support a category 5 SE of Hawaii and in the deep tropics near the IDL.
It is possible, but the setup has to be quite perfect for this to happen.

#715 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Wed Aug 26, 2015 10:11 pm

CMC, ECMWF, FIM8, FIM9, and UKMET all show some sort of TC behind 13E.

#716 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:40 am

Well, I'll be damned if this ever happens:

#717 Postby **Extratropical94** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 7:50 am

New area of possible development next week.

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development early next week while the
system moves to the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

galaxy401 · #718 Postby **galaxy401** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:17 pm

Next name on the list is going to be very special. :lol:

#719 Postby **Kingarabian** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:35 pm

EPAC back to life.

#720 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:59 pm

An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred miles
southwest of Mexico over the weekend. Environmental conditions
could be conducive for some development early next week while the
system moves to the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

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