2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Also notice it no longer shows those long-range TC's spinning up in the East Pacific, instead the action is on the Atlantic side.

Interesting times ahead?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Can someone please post graphics for the long range GFS run showing GOM storm?

Look above your post someone did.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Also notice it no longer shows those long-range TC's spinning up in the East Pacific, instead the action is on the Atlantic side.

Interesting times ahead?

It's quite common for activity to alternate between the East Pacific and the Atlantic Basin. Once the East Pac quiets down, look for the Atlantic side to heat up. I expect that the next Atlantic storm will develop by the end of the first week of August, and 3 or 4 more will follow in August.

[Blown Away]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2016071206&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=279

Watch the entire run, notice how the GFS sees pressures lowering throughout the Atlantic Basin as we move into the last week of July... Mother Nature on time once again and it seems August will be an exciting month for us...

[SFLcane]

Wait! thought season was over?

[RL3AO]

The models are hinting at tropical cyclones in the Atlantic as we approach August? Amazing.

[hurricanehunter69]

Careful what we wish for.....The steering of these systems looks ominous.....?

[floridasun78]

i see cmc show low later july by Africa http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 016071200& fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=51 ECMWF show area low pressure later this month too by afica too http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=279 thuis one show area almost same area other models http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=51 so look this may pick up from next week to end of july time table what models showing

[JaxGator]

Careful what we wish for.....The steering of these systems looks ominous.....?

Yes, the models (for now anyway) have been showing ominous steering and ridge over and around the Northeast that would favor a East Coast/Florida and Gulf strike. Mainly the GFS. Euro and JMA.

[RL3AO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/752888714431520768

[cycloneye]

A delay to the 12z GFS being released.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/752894367799582721




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/752896497692372992

[cycloneye]

NCEP is back.Lol.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/752911477988659201

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/752912639144161280

[gatorcane]

NCEP site updated. Tropicaltidbits still not updated. Here is the 384 hour 12Z GFS map from NCEP which shows no TCs:

[tarheelprogrammer]

From completely active to completely empty of activity in one run lol hopefully the models continuing staying quiet. Just odd for it to show that many TCs and then none even for that far out in that range. At least from what I have seen of the models.

[Alyono]

system plows into South America so it cannot develop in this run

[Hammy]

GFS is alternating every other run showing storms, rather than literally nothing for the last several weeks--the model has done poorly with longer-distance storms (not showing Colin or Bonnie until 5-6 days prior) so I don't expect much consistency, but it's certainly a change and likely indicates the pattern will be changing as well by month's end.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Again the CMC and ECMWF with nothing at all. Just some vorticity.

[gatorcane]

This is a pretty large wave the ECMWF has been consistently showing rolls off Africa in mid next week or so (7-8 days from now), last frame of the 12Z run shown below.

That said, climatology suggests this won't develop that far east but we would want to monitor it for development further west.

[chaser1]

From completely active to completely empty of activity in one run lol hopefully the models continuing staying quiet. Just odd for it to show that many TCs and then none even for that far out in that range. At least from what I have seen of the models.

My take on the longer range GFS is that it may be better "sniffing out" developing systems, but i'd rather the model just as quickly drop the bad potatoe if a following run simply cannot support the metrix of data to maintain an organized low. At such a long range, I'm looking at whatever trend and possibly increased run after run consistancy toward maintaining tropical low integrity, as an indicator or trend of whats to come. What has annoyed me in the past is when the GFS might maintain significant run after run T.S. consistancy, right up to a relative nearer range (such as 96 to 120 hours), and then suddenly drop the system altogether. Obviously atmospheric conditions detected must have caused its forecasts to change, but it was becoming so poor at detecting those changes while approaching its prior historical accurate short to mid range time frames. Hopefully much of that will have been ironed out through system upgrades... we'll see.

Kind of funny but I almost equate long term model watching with trying to track the elusive Florida tornado. From radar signiture to above ground sighting, jog... weeve..., back up and nothing, then debris and twisted trees some couple miles upstream, all before maybe one or two further rare sightings of our typically smaller and eratic funnel - then poof! Luckily, most of the time few here will actually witness seeing the funnel, but the weather's bad enough and the warning's have been issued. Seeing is certainly beleiving though and with increased sightings come the greater perception of risk. In a way, watching longer range models feels oddly similar. If a model doesnt show a storm, it doesnt mean there wont be one but a model run suddently popping a tropical storm forming raises one's eyebrow. Finally, with greater consistancy comes the obvious increase risk of development. Of course..... then there's the CMC, but thats an altogether different topic LOL.