ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

This La Nina is having a tough time. In 1998 this coming week readings were already -1C or lower and 2010 was getting pretty close (-0.8C). The north Pacific warming is related to the dying Nino Aleutian favored by more cold neutral-Nina ridging in that area. It's not quite -PDO yet, I don't think we will see solid -PDO this year. -PDO is warm off Japan and slightly eastward while cold horshoe through the North American coast.





Verification has shown guidance (especially the euro) too cold. We have seen this before...2012, I remember this event well I was burned hard not listening to what the PDO was signaling that year.

[Ntxw]

Reading will hold steady at -0.4C this week. Still no La Nina weekly reading yet. In 1998 around this same time the reading was -1.1C or moderate levels. While a late blooming event (2007) is still possible to achieve a moderate Nina in the trimonthly if it cranks hard soon, though the odds continue to decrease each passing month. The most recent first year Nina (2010) had -0.8C around this period.

None of the three had a PDO in June greater than 1 which is what will likely happen. Others were within neutral or -PDO

[cycloneye]

No change at Nino 3.4 on the CPC update of 7/5/16 as it remains at -0.4C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Dean_175]

AMJ ONI was 0.7.

Although ERSST applies a time filter to the data, meaning monthly values will likely change retrospectively, the monthly value for June Nino3.4 (+0.37C) indicates that we have a bit longer to go if we are actually going to see a La Nina develop. Also, both the ESOI and traditional SOI were near neutral values for the month, as were the equatorial easterlies-which indicates that we do not yet have an atmospheric signal for La Nina.

Last year, around this same time-we were already seeing evidence of a robust atmospheric El Nino signal and moderate to strong values in OISSTv2 nino3.4 weeklies.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/750745478870937600

[stormwise]

That area known as the manatu box has some very warm anom's beginning to show up on the plots.

[tarheelprogrammer]

That area known as the manatu box has some very warm anom's beginning to show up on the plots.

How does this effect the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

[stormwise]

I don't know enough to answer that, i was hoping Ntxw may since its PDO connected.

[NDG]

That area known as the manatu box has some very warm anom's beginning to show up on the plots.

How does this effect the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Maybe a sign of the PDO going negative in the near future, which it still looks positive to me.

[Yellow Evan]

PDO isn't going negative anytime soon. The +PDO regime will weaken somewhat, however.

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgsafe.org/ee5289d9b8.png[/ig]
That area known as the manatu box has some very warm anom's beginning to show up on the plots.

Yeah this means the PDO has weakened some. However for it to flip negative, the anamolies near Alaska need to cool.

[xcool22]

That area known as the manatu box has some very warm anom's beginning to show up on the plots.

How does this effect the Atlantic Hurricane Season?

that's a good question hmmm

[Ntxw]

[img]https://i.imgsafe.org/ee5289d9b8.png[/ig]
That area known as the manatu box has some very warm anom's beginning to show up on the plots.

Yeah this means the PDO has weakened some. However for it to flip negative, the anamolies near Alaska need to cool.

Need more than that. A True -PDO would extend from Alaska down the coast of North America and west/southwest of Mexico just north of ENSO, A solid warm tongue from Japan/Kamchatka on east through the Aleutians. There are varying ways but what's on that map isn't cold PDO.

This is what a cold PDO Nina looks like in July

[stormwise]

Maybe NDG and Kingarabian are on to something with a PDO shift time will tell.

[CourierPR]

In other words, we will most likely be dealing with La Nada this season?

[dexterlabio]

Would it be a first if a super El Nino year like 2015 precedes a neutral year? The big Nino events like in 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2009 were all followed by La Nina. Although someone could always argue that there's a first for everything...

[Ntxw]

Would it be a first if a super El Nino year like 2015 precedes a neutral year? The big Nino events like in 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2009 were all followed by La Nina. Although someone could always argue that there's a first for everything...

With ERSSTv4 ONI 1983-1984 technically does not qualify as a La Nina after 1982 super Nino. It is cold neutral as it did not have enough for the 5 consecutive trimonthlies. I think this is where we are headed. NMME, CFSv2, and now even the Euro have backed way off to weak Nina and even the Euro does not have it long enough to qualify as a bonafide Nina. The surface just has not cooperated, shades of the failed Nino in 2012 with discord to the PDO. La NIna is still the favored forecast from the CPC but it is looking more and more bleak for a true NIna event. Given it is mid July and the trimonthly requirement for an event, where we are the Atlantic hurricane season will probably coincide with neutral conditions.

Eric Webb also tweeted his ENSO reconstruction and that 1877-1878 super Nino also went to cold neutral in 1878-1879 failed Nina. That event resembles most to how the Nino behaved last year.

If the weeklies values started tanking hard (-1C) or more and stayed there within the next two months then it's possible to pull a backend moderate event like in 2007 but the preconditioning is not as good as that year to start.

[Hunabku]

It's helpful to consider the PDO as an indicator of larger ENSO trends. Although it may give us insights on where ENSO is going, it actually tends to lag behind ENSO. Notice this year the PDO's relative monthly records peaked after Nino. Now the PDO seems to be catching up with SST drops that occurred month(s) prior in ENSO regions.

If there is verification of the ENSO model forecasts that bottom out during July/Aug at a weak Nina or neutral state, then I suspect that the PDO will bottom out some month(s) after that, likely before going negative. Also, it's hard to know how deep or lasting the current drop in the PDO will be as there is no subsurface temp mapping for PDO that I am aware of, and the PDO is significantly governed by atmospheric processes, which have lots of near-term variability within longer decadal trends

[Yellow Evan]

As of late, PDO has seemed to spike in the spring and fall in the summer.

[Ntxw]

It's helpful to consider the PDO as an indicator of larger ENSO trends. Although it may give us insights on where ENSO is going, it actually tends to lag behind ENSO. Notice this year the PDO's relative monthly records peaked after Nino. Now the PDO seems to be catching up with SST drops that occurred month(s) prior in ENSO regions.

If there is verification of the ENSO model forecasts that bottom out during July/Aug at a weak Nina or neutral state, then I suspect that the PDO will bottom out some month(s) after that, likely before going negative. Also, it's hard to know how deep or lasting the current drop in the PDO will be as there is no subsurface temp mapping for PDO that I am aware of, and the PDO is significantly governed by atmospheric processes, which have lots of near-term variability within longer decadal trends

Yes which is why we have to be careful when considering discussion about a PDO reversal. It takes years to see the full flip and resulting pattern. Remember this +PDO came before the almost Nino in 2014. The weak NIna may not be strong enough to reverse the trend in this case to the current base.