Disturbed weather in Eastern Atlantic (Is invest 95L)

[floridasun78]

we need see how it look as move more west right now look like it very weak but models been on this wave to be hurr by weekend so let see

[abajan]

Seeing a significant westward shift in the 06Z GFS run. It builds much stronger ridging over the central Atlantic and turns the storm into the NE Leewards and up into the east US coast similar to an Isabel type track. The eastern US trough that had been recurving the system well east of the US lifts out and pinches off a weakness over the eastern US. Way too far out to tell but the trends look further and further west. We're going to transition into a positive NAO according to the latest GFS ensemble runs which could mean stronger Atlantic ridging in about 10 days or so.

I have no data to back it up it has always seemed to me that the most dangerous time of the year for the Lesser Antilles as far as cyclones are concerned, is late August because of the tendency to have a strong HIGH to our Northeast at that time of the year which keeps systems on a more Westerly track than they would normally take.

[HURAKAN]

not much to see at the moment

[ColinDelia]

[ROCK]

now what are we supposed to be watching?

[Vortex]

Sal and stable air should keep the system in check for the next 2-3 days...This would bring the system much further west as the globals are now suggesting...Early recurvature may not be a given. In fact, im leaning more towards an island threat...12Z GFS should be interesting...

[ROCK]

Sal and stable air should keep the system in check for the next 2-3 days...This would bring the system much further west as the globals are now suggesting...Early recurvature may not be a given. In fact, im leaning more towards an island threat...12Z GFS should be interesting...

I have been sold on recurve for some time....just go to show how models can change given present conditions in the short range....I agree with westward trend. How far west remains to be seen...islands and EC should be paying attention...

[KWT]

The models were way too agressive with this first wave...

The ECM looks to have made a good call with the two energy regions with the ITCZ and therefore for the next few days this won't be a player...but down the line in the C.Atlantic from say 40-50W its going to have a shot IMO of developing still.

GFS still only believes the 1st wave will develop, other models argue the GFS is totally wrong...we will see!

ps, this one is way too north at this stage and given the recent SAL outbreak to develop just yet, but this far north at 40-50W is probably not a bad thing unless shear ramps up...

[chrisjslucia]

Seeing a significant westward shift in the 06Z GFS run. It builds much stronger ridging over the central Atlantic and turns the storm into the NE Leewards and up into the east US coast similar to an Isabel type track. The eastern US trough that had been recurving the system well east of the US lifts out and pinches off a weakness over the eastern US. Way too far out to tell but the trends look further and further west. We're going to transition into a positive NAO according to the latest GFS ensemble runs which could mean stronger Atlantic ridging in about 10 days or so.

I have no data to back it up it has always seemed to me that the most dangerous time of the year for the Lesser Antilles as far as cyclones are concerned, is late August because of the tendency to have a strong HIGH to our Northeast at that time of the year which keeps systems on a more Westerly track than they would normally take.

[color=#000000]Abajan, you're almost on the money. These figures are from StormCarib site (courtesy of Caribbean Hurricane Network) and show the peak weeks are the first two weeks of September for the Eastern Caribbean. Close behind in activity are the middle 2 weeks of August. Link for the data is http://stormcarib.com/climatology/ECAR_weekly.htm

Period: 1851 - 2008
Peak of the season (since 1851):
Most storms: week of 9/1-9/7 (33 since 1851 or 1 every 4.8 years)
Most hurricanes: week of 9/1-9/7 (20 since 1851 or 1 every 7.9 years)
Most severe hurricanes: weeks of 9/1-9/7, 9/8-9/14 (7 since 1851 or 1 every 22.6 years)

Period: 1944 - 2008
Peak of the season (since 1944):
Most storms: week of 9/1-9/7 (16 since 1944 or 1 every 4.1 years)
Most hurricanes: week of 9/1-9/7 (9 since 1944 or 1 every 7.2 years)
Most severe hurricanes: week of 9/1-9/7 (5 since 1944 or 1 every 13.0 years)

Eastern Caribbean Region: peak
[/color]

[Vortex]

12Z GFS rolling shortly...

[dwsqos2]

There's nothing like seeing a dessicated mess.

[BigA]

So far, 12Z is stronger than 6Z at 144 hours and looks to be heading basically west.

[Fego]

At 144 hours, more westward than previous IMO.



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[Fego]

At 168 hours still west.



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[ronjon]

12Z GFS - 180 hrs - hurricane smashing into the northern leewards.

[Fego]

At 204 hours impact PR


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[Wx_Warrior]

[Hugo1989]

I feel that the Caribbean will have some impact. It's been a long time as the Lesser Antilles do not receive a strong direct impact.

[srainhoutx]

Much further W this run. The trend continues day after day via guidance. For those that have been impatient regarding this season, we often forget that La Nina years bring later activity that can linger into November and even beyond IMO.

[hurricaneCW]

And the U.S. landfall chances continue to increase with that run. So much for a 1995 redux. Still, other models develop the 2nd wave and the gfs completely abandons that solution. It will be interesting to see how both waves develop and how they will interact with each other.