Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

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lonelymike
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#741 Postby lonelymike » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:06 am

Its also good to note that the GFS is not exactly the most reliable tropical model around :wink:

Goodnite Irene
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#742 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:07 am

While we wait for ROCK to post the Euro, does anybody have tonight's Canadian and UKMET runs?
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#743 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:07 am

lonelymike wrote:Well some good news is that the mighty NOGAPS does not develop this system :lol:


Huh? Looks like it develops to me.. just takes it out to sea
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#744 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:08 am

lonelymike wrote:Well some good news is that the mighty NOGAPS does not develop this system :lol:


I wouldn't believe that model if it was my dying day, its just atrocious
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Re:

#745 Postby boca » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:08 am

lonelymike wrote:Its also good to note that the GFS is not exactly the most reliable tropical model around :wink:

Goodnite Irene


Its not even reliable at 120hrs but the consistency is what baffles me right now.
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Re: Re:

#746 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:13 am

boca wrote:
lonelymike wrote:Its also good to note that the GFS is not exactly the most reliable tropical model around :wink:

Goodnite Irene


Its not even reliable at 120hrs but the consistency is what baffles me right now.


it baffled me with Arlene and Don when they were developing....showed some transient cloud in the carib.... :lol:

maybe they tweaked it.... :D
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Re: Re:

#747 Postby boca » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:15 am

ROCK wrote:
boca wrote:
lonelymike wrote:Its also good to note that the GFS is not exactly the most reliable tropical model around :wink:

Goodnite Irene


Its not even reliable at 120hrs but the consistency is what baffles me right now.


it baffled me with Arlene and Don when they were developing....showed some transient cloud in the carib.... :lol:

maybe they tweaked it.... :D


Didn't they due an additional upgrade to the GFS in July,Im just guessing but does anyone know?
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#748 Postby lonelymike » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:16 am

Sad part about the Good For poop is that a few of the hurricane models run off this wonderful mess of mathamatical equations and algorithams :roll:


BTW where's Ivan He get shipped to Camp Bagwhanna already?
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#749 Postby Turtle » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:26 am

Any ideas what this small patch of rain is doing in East Texas?

Image

I'm forcasted to get 4.5" of rain from from hours 192+.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#750 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:31 am

anyone watching the latest RAM SAT view? convection is all but gone...looks like 93L all over again in about the same place....
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#751 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:35 am

The only thing I can say about the GFS is I think its too bullish, its going to probably be a slower intensification

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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#752 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:41 am

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

no vorticity at the 850MB level.....even 93L looks like crap....they might invest it just to run the BAMS and the GFDL tomorrow.....but I dont think they are going to without convection....
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#753 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:43 am

2 AM TWO

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#754 Postby AJC3 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 12:53 am

ROCK wrote:http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

no vorticity at the 850MB level.....even 93L looks like crap....they might invest it just to run the BAMS and the GFDL tomorrow.....but I dont think they are going to without convection....



I don't think this was what you meant to say, was it?
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#755 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:17 am

AJC3 wrote:
ROCK wrote:http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=

no vorticity at the 850MB level.....even 93L looks like crap....they might invest it just to run the BAMS and the GFDL tomorrow.....but I dont think they are going to without convection....



I don't think this was what you meant to say, was it?



my bad....I didnt refresh the page....there is some there and large at that..
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#756 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:19 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#757 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:23 am

that is one kick butt ridge

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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#758 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:26 am

eating some PR and a good chunk of Hispa...

Image


ridge weakening but so is whoever this becomes if anything....

Image
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#759 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:28 am

while we wait for the next update..does anyone notice how the ridge weakenes from 96-120hr...seems a bit extreme...
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Re: Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic - 10%

#760 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:30 am

Long range 0z CMC.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... 28&fixhh=1
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