NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[tolakram]

Still thinking its the gulf swirl.

[NDG]

18z GFS H85 Vorticity loop clearly shows that both vorticities will meet up and form a stronger vorticity just north of Yucatan P by Friday.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Ivanhater]

[South Texas Storms]

Man I really wish this could've been designated an invest by now so the 0z models could have a better center fix on it. Oh well, hopefully by tomorrow's 12z runs.

[ROCK]

got a real good looking naked swirl in the EGOM...

[South Texas Storms]

got a real good looking naked swirl in the EGOM...

Rock you keeping up the hope with me that we can at least get some rain out of this next week?
If not the freaking 100 degree heat will return. Sigh.

[OuterBanker]

I see the latest GFS does take Debby out to sea after Fl. That's a good sign, according to that model it won't pose a threat to anyone other than Fl.

[ROCK]

got a real good looking naked swirl in the EGOM...

Rock you keeping up the hope with me that we can at least get some rain out of this next week?
If not the freaking 100 degree heat will return. Sigh.

hope has nothing to do with it....just calling like a see it.....the EGOM swirl is toast and the YUC low will take over. Models see that...its not going to be absorb by a naked LLC swirl.... an invest tag would help....7 days in the GOM anything can happen...

[TheShrimper]

It will get an invest tag when it is warranted plain and simple.

[Aric Dunn]

got a real good looking naked swirl in the EGOM...

Rock you keeping up the hope with me that we can at least get some rain out of this next week?
If not the freaking 100 degree heat will return. Sigh.

hope has nothing to do with it....just calling like a see it.....the EGOM swirl is toast and the YUC low will take over. Models see that...its not going to be absorb by a naked LLC swirl.... an invest tag would help....7 days in the GOM anything can happen...

Its all a matter of size. the area in the east gulf although is naked and has a little swirl associated with it is irreverent. the overall system itself and associated pattern is many times larger than the little Yucatan system which is still over land and mostly in the mid levels. they will both contribute to what will likely become out invest then TC over the next 48 hours.

[jasons2k]

I just want to caution everyone it's still early in the game and a lot can change in a hurry. While the GFS and European agreement of a FL hit make a strong case to shift focus there, I would like to see some more consistency first. The thing about the 'crazy Canadian' is that it is consistent with the ridge pushing it west, while the GFS has been all over the place, spitting out multiple centers, suffering form convective feedback issues, etc. Even the Euro shows it missing trough #2 in the long range. There are too many questions and I just can't trust anything yet. Let's see what the overnight runs do to see if they shift again or not.

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Weather Statements
042
NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[South Texas Storms]

I just want to caution everyone it's still early in the game and a lot can change in a hurry. While the GFS and European agreement of a FL hit make a strong case to shift focus there, I would like to see some more consistency first. The thing about the 'crazy Canadian' is that it is consistent with the ridge pushing it west, while the GFS has been all over the place, spitting out multiple centers, suffering form convective feedback issues, etc. Even the Euro shows it missing trough #2 in the long range. There are too many questions and I just can't trust anything yet. Let's see what the overnight runs do to see if they shift again or not.

Very well said jasons! There is just so much uncertainty with this system right now that it would be foolish to rule out any possible landfall from Mexico to Florida.

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Weather Statements
042
NOUS42 KNHC 201245
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0845 AM EDT WED JUN 20 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-033

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A LOW LEVEL INVEST
AT 22/1800Z NEAR 24.0N 89.0W

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[gatorcane]

I just want to caution everyone it's still early in the game and a lot can change in a hurry. While the GFS and European agreement of a FL hit make a strong case to shift focus there, I would like to see some more consistency first. The thing about the 'crazy Canadian' is that it is consistent with the ridge pushing it west, while the GFS has been all over the place, spitting out multiple centers, suffering form convective feedback issues, etc. Even the Euro shows it missing trough #2 in the long range. There are too many questions and I just can't trust anything yet. Let's see what the overnight runs do to see if they shift again or not.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I agree 100% with Jasons' statement. In fact, let's not forget development is not a shoe-in here. In fact I would suggest this has more of a chance NOT to become a named system than becoming one and am leaning towards that at this time. The main reason is that the area is very broad and very disorganized with no organized low pressure area that I can see will develop in the next couple of days. Shear continues to be an issue. It's possible we will see something towards the weekend but development is going to be very slow to happen if at all. The FIM model is close to what I see could happen. Namely the trough moves NW into the Central GOM over the next few days and a low pressure area develops but stays a broad/disorganized low. Trough comes down early next week and moves it off to the NE or ENE. I just don't see anything strong developing out of this at this time.

Link to 12Z FIM model all fields loop:
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fim:&runTime=2012062012&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244&wjet=1

[KatDaddy]

Well stated Jasons. Its a complete mess out there across the GOM and NW Caribbean. Models have been challenged all week.

[Ntxw]

A little reminder. A few posters mentioned a stronger system goes poleward and weaker unorganized system meanders. The trough a few days ago forecasted to pick up any entity is currently making it's way into the central plains of the US as seen by the line of storms and clouds. It's going to drift east and northeast. As of right now we do not have a definitive tropical system.

Notice the trough in the central conus



By Friday the ridge will have set up in the southern plains. If this system is still weak it will not likely be picked up north or northeast fully and instead just waves of rain for Florida from the broad moisture. Air travels clockwise around high pressure so the longer it takes to get it's act together into a decent storm the more likely it will get caught into the ridge's flow and wander west (western gulf). After going through the globals Sunday-ish is when I would say the ridge will fully set influence and will miss the trough to the east if it has not already made a landfall.

[caneman]

Up to this point I would say the GFS has been far more consistent while the Euro has been all over the place. I don't buy any of them yet. I don't even know that we will see much development out of this. Too many variables and too far out.

[psyclone]

Clearly there's a good deal of uncertainty here. regardless of what scenario ultimately unfolds, it is likely that some portion of peninsular Florida receives torrential rain from this mess.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I took some video of the breezy squalls moving over St. Petersburg:
http://youtu.be/zjSkBOWESv0

As for eventual track and intensity there is too much uncertainty. I do think we will
have a lot of rain over Florida tomorrow and Friday, but beyond that is up in the air.