2015 Global model runs discussion

perk · #741 Postby **perk** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:45 am

tolakram wrote:Weatherbell maps show 992MB at 204 hours as it comes ashore near Matagorda Bay. Pretty far out, things will certainly change.

Yeah the Euro shifted a little to the west on that run.

#742 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:49 am

GFS is more west, barely offshore, but shows it in the same general area.

perk · #743 Postby **perk** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 7:57 am

tolakram wrote:GFS is more west, barely offshore, but shows it in the same general area.

SE Texas could be in for a lot of rain(if)this happens ,because we are suppose to get a lot of rain towards the end of this week.

CYCLONE MIKE · #744 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:06 am

Baton Rouge mentioned the possibility but they aren't buying into it

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INSTEAD
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN INTERESTING HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM ALONG THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE GULF. THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWING UP IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS PATTERN CONTINUE IN SUBSIQUENT RUNS BEFORE
PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT BEHIND IT.

perk · #745 Postby **perk** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 9:13 am

CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Baton Rouge mentioned the possibility but they aren't buying into it

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INSTEAD
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN INTERESTING HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM ALONG THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE GULF. THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWING UP IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS PATTERN CONTINUE IN SUBSIQUENT RUNS BEFORE
PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT BEHIND IT.

The Houston/Galveston NWS is taking an interest in it and that's who i am rolling with.

MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING ALOFT
OVER TX/MEXICO THE LAST FEW RUNS...DOING SO THEN BACKING OFF. NOW
BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE TOWARDS A VERY WET
SOLUTION STARTING LATE NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE GFS EXPANDING NORTHWARD
INTO SETX EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS 6
HOURS OR SO SLOWER BUT MORE INTENSE...PW SURGING TO 2.5-2.6"!
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A VERY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PERHAPS
INITIALLY A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT)
THAT QUICKLY WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO SETX. THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED.

#746 Postby **WPBWeather** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:34 am

perk wrote:
CYCLONE MIKE wrote:Baton Rouge mentioned the possibility but they aren't buying into it

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL. MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON
BRINGING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INSTEAD
ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP AN INTERESTING HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM ALONG THE
TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE GULF. THIS IS THE
FIRST TIME THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWING UP IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS PATTERN CONTINUE IN SUBSIQUENT RUNS BEFORE
PUTTING TOO MUCH WEIGHT BEHIND IT.

The Houston/Galveston NWS is taking an interest in it and that's who i am rolling with.

MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING ALOFT
OVER TX/MEXICO THE LAST FEW RUNS...DOING SO THEN BACKING OFF. NOW
BOTH THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEGUN TO COALESCE TOWARDS A VERY WET
SOLUTION STARTING LATE NEXT SUNDAY FOR THE GFS EXPANDING NORTHWARD
INTO SETX EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS 6
HOURS OR SO SLOWER BUT MORE INTENSE...PW SURGING TO 2.5-2.6"!
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP A VERY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (PERHAPS
INITIALLY A COASTAL TROUGH ON THE TAIL END OF THE REMNANT FRONT)
THAT QUICKLY WRAPS UP AND MOVES INTO SETX. THIS SCENARIO MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. STAY TUNED.

Maybe even central LA folks may have to watch this one.

#747 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 10:52 am

I saw 990mb at landfall. However, I am not buying this one

perk · #748 Postby **perk** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:32 am

Alyono wrote:I saw 990mb at landfall. However, I am not buying this one

Please do elaborate.

Sambucol · #749 Postby **Sambucol** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:17 pm

perk wrote:
Alyono wrote:I saw 990mb at landfall. However, I am not buying this one

Please do elaborate.

That's a low pressure. Don't like that at all.

Hammy · #750 Postby **Hammy** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:18 pm

Regarding the Euro, doesn't it tend to have a west bias on the track, especially on northward moving systems?

FlaStormFanatic · #751 Postby **FlaStormFanatic** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:35 pm

Any of you guys think that could be our next named storm? If the models verify, it could be impressive.

#752 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:36 pm

The 12Z GFS has no Gulf or Texas storm.

Weatherlover12 · #753 Postby **Weatherlover12** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:37 pm

This hurricane season has been boring. I guess we have to wait till 2016 for action. Even tho hurricane season ends nov 30. It's just disappointing to prepare for something and then it doesn't come. Yes, I live I'm FL and it's been 10 years... I'm still hyped over tropical weather still. Everyone here is more complacent now. Some has forgot that FL gets tropical systems. Idk when the next time we'll get something. But whenever I'll be skeptical and prepared.
Just wanted to share this thought

#754 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:38 pm

FlaStormFanatic wrote:Any of you guys think that could be our next named storm? If the models verify, it could be impressive.

It will have to overcome a lot, gulf shear being one of them. Though the models have been showing disturbed weather in this part of the basin for some runs now. We may or may not see a named system out of it, but it won't happen quickly, there will be a surge of moisture in the western and northern gulf sometime soon be it connected with a trough digging into the middle of the country.

#755 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:59 pm

gatorcane wrote:The 12Z GFS has no Gulf or Texas storm.

yeah, it does. Forms on the coast similar to 6Z at 168 hours

perk · #756 Postby **perk** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:05 pm

gatorcane wrote:The 12Z GFS has no Gulf or Texas storm.

It sure does show a 1009mb low around Corpus at hour 180,what GFS are you looking at.

#757 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:07 pm

Oh yeah it does you are right, its right along the coast. I missed it.

#758 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:43 pm

12Z EC is forming an EPAC system, which seems to be keeping the Gulf low in check

#759 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:52 pm

Alyono wrote:12Z EC is forming an EPAC system, which seems to be keeping the Gulf low in check

Yep, bombs out the EPAC system with just weak low pressure in the WGOM.

#760 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Sep 07, 2015 1:54 pm

EC has been maybe the worst of the models in terms of inconsistency this year. perhaps we should stop giving its solutions beyond 5 days ANY weight as it has been no more useful than the Canadian

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