Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[wxman57]

Here's a 13Z Meteosat visible. Not much of anything near the center, currently. Don't look for too much change for 3-4 days.

[northjaxpro]

Nasty shear in the Caribbean right now that's gonna have to change. With these models in 2016 Iam still not onboard with development.

GFS model runs are depicting shear values to become quite conducive going out 5-7 days as it is showing an anticyclone establishing itself across the Western Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Nasty shear in the Caribbean right now that's gonna have to change. With these models in 2016 Iam still not onboard with development.

GFS model runs are depicting shear values to become quite conducive going out 5-7 days as it is showing an anticyclone establishing itself across the Western Caribbean.

Yea same way they were with hermine.

[Alyono]

Nasty shear in the Caribbean right now that's gonna have to change. With these models in 2016 Iam still not onboard with development.

The developing EPAC system should enduce a trough over the extreme eastern EPAC, which would allow for a ridge over the Caribbean

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Nasty shear in the Caribbean right now that's gonna have to change. With these models in 2016 Iam still not onboard with development.

I agree, it's been one struggling, disorganized storm after another this season. The models have done abhorrently bad with predicting TC genesis and development this season beyond 120 hours.

[northjaxpro]

Nasty shear in the Caribbean right now that's gonna have to change. With these models in 2016 Iam still not onboard with development.

The developing EPAC system should enduce a trough over the extreme eastern EPAC, which would allow for a ridge over the Caribbean

Yes, I would tend to think this as well.

[TheStormExpert]

Nasty shear in the Caribbean right now that's gonna have to change. With these models in 2016 Iam still not onboard with development.

The developing EPAC system should enduce a trough over the extreme eastern EPAC, which would allow for a ridge over the Caribbean

I thought a developing East Pacific storm would induce a butt load of shear throughout the Caribbean?

[KWT]

Well the models may have been overly optermistic with Hermine but the shear DID ease up with Hermine in the end and it DID end up a hurricane, so they weren't totally wrong with that.

Anyway this is a totally different system with a different set of potentials and you need to take each storm at its own merit. Just because the forecast busted for 1/2/3/4 storms, does not mean it will bust for storm 5 and having that attitude means you'll get caught out when that big one does come through...and it will...one day.

[northjaxpro]

Well the models may have been overly optermistic with Hermine but the shear DID ease up with Hermine in the end and it DID end up a hurricane, so they weren't totally wrong with that.

Anyway this is a totally different system with a different set of potentials and you need to take each storm at its own merit. Just because the forecast busted for 1/2/3/4 storms, does not mean it will bust for storm 5 and having that attitude means you'll get caught out when that big one does come through...and it will...one day.

Good post and observations.

[Alyono]

Nasty shear in the Caribbean right now that's gonna have to change. With these models in 2016 Iam still not onboard with development.

The developing EPAC system should enduce a trough over the extreme eastern EPAC, which would allow for a ridge over the Caribbean

I thought a developing East Pacific storm would induce a butt load of shear throughout the Caribbean?

It's far enough west and will be moving far enough north to get the Caribbean ridge

[gatorcane]

Well the models may have been overly optermistic with Hermine but the shear DID ease up with Hermine in the end and it DID end up a hurricane, so they weren't totally wrong with that.

Anyway this is a totally different system with a different set of potentials and you need to take each storm at its own merit. Just because the forecast busted for 1/2/3/4 storms, does not mean it will bust for storm 5 and having that attitude means you'll get caught out when that big one does come through...and it will...one day.

Also the GFS never showed a hurricane in the Bahamas like the Euro with Hermine. Now we have both GFS and Euro with a hurricane in the Western Caribbean.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, this season especially, to see both the EURO and GFS showing agreement concerning this potential system is definitely an eyebrow raiser for sure.

[Steve]

Upper Air @ 500mb shows why GFS now takes 39 up and out through North Florida. After the second high, it has a deep trough coming into the Central US that provides a way up and out. GFS, pre-tinkering, was always known to erode ridges in the East way too fast. We will have to see if that aspect of the model has changed.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=354

Also, Megi is forecast to still be moving WNW into China on the 29th. 7-10 days is 10-6 to 10/9. Don't look for any troughs in the Eastern US until at least the 8th/9th (other than the first one that comes down between the two ridges. So as often is the case, this would come down to timing. If it's faster, and say impacts to the US are around the 5th, 6th or 7th, there isn't likely going to be a recurve. After that, it's probably way more possible. But I feel like climatologically we are 3 or 4 weeks behind usual early fall patterns.

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeed ... wp2016.gif

[AutoPenalti]

Big Bend about get leveled with a CAT 5

http://s22.postimg.org/f34vynyxd/gfs_pr ... atl_48.png

That is an interesting development.

[SFLcane]

Being ensembles are east of op I'd say eastward shifts maybe forth coming. Good cluster over FL peninsula

[Steve]

Agreed AutoPanalti. I don't want no 926 creeping around the Gulf. That's probably a multi billion dollar threat unless impacts were sort of in the Hermine-impacted areas east of Tallahassee but west of Jacksonville. It looks too powerful to hit the Big Bend at that kind of strength. That would be rare. But 2016 is its own year, so you never know.

[sunnyday]

Why so many pages on a pouch? Is this one more likely to develop than others before it?

[cycloneye]

[robbielyn]

Agreed AutoPanalti. I don't want no 926 creeping around the Gulf. That's probably a multi billion dollar threat unless impacts were sort of in the Hermine-impacted areas east of Tallahassee but west of Jacksonville. It looks too powerful to hit the Big Bend at that kind of strength. That would be rare. But 2016 is its own year, so you never know.

can you imagine the gas prices if this were to head in to the western gulf where alot of the oil rigs are?

[Kazmit]

Why so many pages on a pouch? Is this one more likely to develop than others before it?

It looks like it could be a significant threat to land, and as a potential major hurricane as well. Just like 99L/Hermine's thread.