2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1269991318391934979

[Shell Mound]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1269991318391934979

There seems to be a pronounced EC trough that causes most of the activity to either a) curve OTS or b) affect land masses to the south of the U.S.

[StruThiO]

There seems to be a pronounced EC trough that causes most of the activity to either a) curve OTS or b) affect land masses to the south of the U.S.

I don't buy it until it's August and I'm personally seeing it.

[SFLcane]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1269991318391934979

There seems to be a pronounced EC trough that causes most of the activity to either a) curve OTS or b) affect land masses to the south of the U.S.

Really? What time machine are you using to look ahead 3 months from now. Steering currents are not predictable even 5 days out without much confidence.

[Shell Mound]

Shell Mound, I guess if the S2K poll was still open you would have changed the numbers (Again) from the 20/13/8 ACE: 260

No, I am not changing my numbers. I am merely posing some questions about the EC run and its reliability in terms of forecasting synoptic conditions and SSTs two to three months ahead. Also, the NMME also seems to agree with the EC in terms of a quasi-negative AMO “horseshoe,” or a blend of EOF3/EOF4, along with drier-than-normal conditions over most of the U.S. Thus, both model suites seem to suggest that most of the activity may miss the mainland U.S., but prove quite destructive elsewhere, e.g., the Caribbean and Bahamas. I would appreciate some input on the likelihood of the bolded and italicised sections, based on the NMME/EC output.

...the June ECMWF monthly output for September 2020 suggests a strong +NAO (hence stronger trades and higher MSLP over the MDR/Caribbean) and a lot of anticyclonic wave-breaking (AWB) due to a pronounced mid-oceanic TUTT over the central subtropical Atlantic. Note that the ITCZ is displaced well to the south of its typical location. This pattern also results in a cooler MDR vs. June 2020, including current conditions. The fact that the subtropical ridge is situated farther north due to the strong +NAO could also allow more storms to either a) curve out to sea or b) continue westward into Central America. Again, this is not a forecast, but a summary of the latest ECMWF forecast for September 2020. Nevertheless, the past several ECMWF runs have been rather insistent on cooling down the MDR/Caribbean by September 2020. How reliable is the long-range ECMWF for synoptic-level forecasting, e.g., in terms of the NAO?

[toad strangler]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1269991318391934979

There seems to be a pronounced EC trough that causes most of the activity to either a) curve OTS or b) affect land masses to the south of the U.S.

Really? What time machine are you using to look ahead 3 months from now. Steering currents are not predictable even 5 days out without much confidence.

Most MDR storms are going to re curve by default because that what the Atlantic Basin does normally. We ALL know that. It isn't going out on a limb to suggest this. It's the safest position one could hold.

[SFLcane]

There seems to be a pronounced EC trough that causes most of the activity to either a) curve OTS or b) affect land masses to the south of the U.S.

Really? What time machine are you using to look ahead 3 months from now. Steering currents are not predictable even 5 days out without much confidence.

Most MDR storms are going to re curve by default because that what the Atlantic Basin does normally. We ALL know that. It isn't going out on a limb to suggest this. It's the safest position one could hold.

Well based alone on this model it would imply something like 2017. a broad East US trough Everything is east coast or Western gulf. Just takes 1

[TheStormExpert]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1269991318391934979

There seems to be a pronounced EC trough that causes most of the activity to either a) curve OTS or b) affect land masses to the south of the U.S.

What are you talking about!? All of the eastern U.S. with the exception of Florida is drier than normal on that graphic. Not to mention forecasting the 500mb pattern like I said before months in advance is not easy.

[cycloneye]

:crazyeyes:

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1269991318391934979

Not 2017 again. There are still blue tarps.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1270042452360036353

[FireRat]

Holy Guacamole!!
Thats a lotta green, damn 2020 you Rat of a year, you!

Seriously though, this continues to look like one heck of a season as time goes on. We can only hope that there are good enough throughs in place to steer any Cape Verde monsters out to sea before the islands or southeast US! It will be interesting to see how the SAL is looking come August into September

[aspen]

Looking at all of these increasingly favorable predictions for the 2020 season, I would’ve updated my prediction to 20/10/6, 220 ACE if the poll was still open. The transition to +AMO along with the continued forecast guidance suggesting a moist MDR leads me to believe that long-trackers like Ivan, Irma, and Luis are firmly on the table now.

[AnnularCane]

I'm thinking my 17/9/4 prediction may have been a little low. But when I make a Final prediction, I tend to keep it that way.

[ScottNAtlanta]

:uarrow: Holy Guacamole!!
Thats a lotta green, damn 2020 you Rat of a year, you!

Seriously though, this continues to look like one heck of a season as time goes on. We can only hope that there are good enough throughs in place to steer any Cape Verde monsters out to sea before the islands or southeast US! It will be interesting to see how the SAL is looking come August into September

Actually SAL should be picking up now through July...it usually retreats somewhat come August. I dont think its going to be a very big SAL year though. There was a lot of moisture from west winds all spring, and a robust wave train already looks to be setting up

[Hurricaneman]

When you have a strong wave train in early June that’s only a precursor to a high octane season and after all that’s gone on this year we don’t need that

[TheStormExpert]

I’m thinking my 19/9/4 with an ACE of 150 might be too low. In all honesty an historical active Atlantic Hurricane Season would just be in line with the already historic 2020 year we’ve had so far.

[EquusStorm]

2020 says hey, let's keep the category five streak and perhaps the category five landfall streak going. Going to be a nail-biting season it seems

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1270130674805149697



 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1270133683400462337



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1270046741623181314




Note that the lingering +PMM/+PDO tendency could actually increase the risk of landfalls in FL and the Gulf due to the STR* elongating southwestward. The current trend toward cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña, combined with neutral to slightly positive PMM/PDO, a strong +AMO developing, a vigorous WAM, and a neutral to slightly positive IOD, is actually the worst possible outcome overall in terms of blended impacts (high ACE and overall activity + risk of landfalls in FL, the Gulf, and parts of the Caribbean basin). Think 2004 or 1933 in terms of ACE, 2012 in terms of overall NS, and 1780, 1900, and/or 2017 in terms of track(s).
*STR: Subtropical ridge (Bermuda–Azores High)

[SFLcane]

Just keeps getting better! Euro predicting a stronger then normal Bermuda high for Aug,Sept,Oct

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1270336893717286912

[toad strangler]

Just keeps getting better!

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1270336893717286912

The ultimate face palm would be if it sets up W based