2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[AlphaToOmega]

I'm beginning to think that we'll see Bonnie form over the 4th of July weekend offshore of the Carolinas, starting out as thunderstorms along the trailing end of a cold front. Very common occurrence in early July. Arthur (2014) formed in early July in the same manner. Not saying a hurricane taking Arthur's track, just that it's the place most likely to produce Bonnie over the next couple of weeks. In addition, I'm taking a vacation day July 5th to have a 4-day weekend. The tropics generally develop a storm to spoil my vacation days. Don't tell the tropics I'm taking tomorrow off.

If that happens, 2022 would have a slower start than 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, or 2021. This season sure is off to a slow start.

[CyclonicFury]

I'm beginning to think that we'll see Bonnie form over the 4th of July weekend offshore of the Carolinas, starting out as thunderstorms along the trailing end of a cold front. Very common occurrence in early July. Arthur (2014) formed in early July in the same manner. Not saying a hurricane taking Arthur's track, just that it's the place most likely to produce Bonnie over the next couple of weeks. In addition, I'm taking a vacation day July 5th to have a 4-day weekend. The tropics generally develop a storm to spoil my vacation days. Don't tell the tropics I'm taking tomorrow off.

If that happens, 2022 would have a slower start than 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, or 2021. This season sure is off to a slow start.

More like a normal start. The 1991-2020 average date of the second named storm is July 17th. The pre-July activity we saw in 2020 and 2021 was unusual, not the norm.

[toad strangler]

I'm beginning to think that we'll see Bonnie form over the 4th of July weekend offshore of the Carolinas, starting out as thunderstorms along the trailing end of a cold front. Very common occurrence in early July. Arthur (2014) formed in early July in the same manner. Not saying a hurricane taking Arthur's track, just that it's the place most likely to produce Bonnie over the next couple of weeks. In addition, I'm taking a vacation day July 5th to have a 4-day weekend. The tropics generally develop a storm to spoil my vacation days. Don't tell the tropics I'm taking tomorrow off.

If that happens, 2022 would have a slower start than 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, or 2021. This season sure is off to a slow start.

More like a normal start. The 1991-2020 average date of the second named storm is July 17th. The pre-July activity we saw in 2020 and 2021 was unusual, not the norm.

It's amazing what a smallish string of years will do to the mind. New "normals" take a lot longer time to happen in climatology.

[Stormcenter]

Since it was bought up. I will say Bonnie forms in the GOM
right before the 4th Of July.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm beginning to think that we'll see Bonnie form over the 4th of July weekend offshore of the Carolinas, starting out as thunderstorms along the trailing end of a cold front. Very common occurrence in early July. Arthur (2014) formed in early July in the same manner. Not saying a hurricane taking Arthur's track, just that it's the place most likely to produce Bonnie over the next couple of weeks. In addition, I'm taking a vacation day July 5th to have a 4-day weekend. The tropics generally develop a storm to spoil my vacation days. Don't tell the tropics I'm taking tomorrow off.

If that happens, 2022 would have a slower start than 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, or 2021. This season sure is off to a slow start.

1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004, 2005, and 2010 had “slow” starts then as well

[jlauderdal]

I'm beginning to think that we'll see Bonnie form over the 4th of July weekend offshore of the Carolinas, starting out as thunderstorms along the trailing end of a cold front. Very common occurrence in early July. Arthur (2014) formed in early July in the same manner. Not saying a hurricane taking Arthur's track, just that it's the place most likely to produce Bonnie over the next couple of weeks. In addition, I'm taking a vacation day July 5th to have a 4-day weekend. The tropics generally develop a storm to spoil my vacation days. Don't tell the tropics I'm taking tomorrow off.

the wxman57 300+ model suite

[MHC Tracking]

I'm beginning to think that we'll see Bonnie form over the 4th of July weekend offshore of the Carolinas, starting out as thunderstorms along the trailing end of a cold front. Very common occurrence in early July. Arthur (2014) formed in early July in the same manner. Not saying a hurricane taking Arthur's track, just that it's the place most likely to produce Bonnie over the next couple of weeks. In addition, I'm taking a vacation day July 5th to have a 4-day weekend. The tropics generally develop a storm to spoil my vacation days. Don't tell the tropics I'm taking tomorrow off.

If that happens, 2022 would have a slower start than 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, or 2021. This season sure is off to a slow start.

Not really, no. This is a normal start to a season, and perhaps even a slightly above normal one considering we had the strongest June TC since 2012. I feel like the brief era of preseason TC's has "spoiled some"

[zzh]

Keep an eye on this AEW that will reach ~50W in ~12 day. About 40% of EPS members are on board.

[skyline385]

That's a lot of members on the EPS, GEFS actually has fewer than the EPS.

[Kingarabian]

Based on todays Euro run, could have a SECONUS system and a MDR system in about 10 days.

[captainbarbossa19]

Based on todays Euro run, could have a SECONUS system and a MDR system in about 10 days.

Euro is showing something weak in the GOM by day 10 too.

[Kingarabian]

Based on todays Euro run, could have a SECONUS system and a MDR system in about 10 days.

Euro is showing something weak in the GOM by day 10 too.

Yeah just seen. Those are super tricky and timing has to be super right. Usually as they show signs of development they move inland.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/ifFhr5y.png
Keep an eye on this AEW that will reach ~50W in ~12 day. About 40% of EPS members are on board.

Well that’s certainly interesting, considering this is the first time at least so far this season that the Euro has been more bullish on a particular system in the Atlantic than the GFS…

[aspen]

18z GFS has a 994mb tropical storm in the SW MDR at 246 hours.

It also tries again with a 93L-like system, forming near Nicaragua in about a week, but gets pulled up into the Gulf like Alberto ‘18.

Edit: peaks again 989mb and hits South America. Its track and timing is very similar to Bret ‘17.

[NotSparta]

I'd probably expect development in the MDR in July, not so sure about this signal the EPS and GFS show. Can be overdone sometimes. Means perhaps just a particularly strong wave that maybe gets tagged but I wouldn't think much more than that if anything

[skyline385]

18Z GFS with the MDR wave, also that is a very strong Azores high

[skyline385]

18Z GEFS with more CAG bias

[captainbarbossa19]

18Z GEFS with more CAG bias

https://i.imgur.com/5jtLm0y.png

If the GFS and ensembles were right, the entire Gulf coast would already be destroyed this season. Meanwhile, the Euro is like:

[Deshaunrob17]

18z GFS has a 994mb tropical storm in the SW MDR at 246 hours.

It also tries again with a 93L-like system, forming near Nicaragua in about a week, but gets pulled up into the Gulf like Alberto ‘18.

Edit: peaks again 989mb and hits South America. Its track and timing is very similar to Bret ‘17.

Lol in 2020 I got to a point where I stopped looking at the Euro and EPs and I mainly paid attention to Gefs and GFS. This year I'm nearing the point where ill stop looking at GFS and GEFS. Lol I'm a give it a couple more weeks

[skyline385]

18z GFS has a 994mb tropical storm in the SW MDR at 246 hours.

It also tries again with a 93L-like system, forming near Nicaragua in about a week, but gets pulled up into the Gulf like Alberto ‘18.

Edit: peaks again 989mb and hits South America. Its track and timing is very similar to Bret ‘17.

Lol in 2020 I got to a point where I stopped looking at the Euro and EPs and I mainly paid attention to Gefs and GFS. This year I'm nearing the point where ill stop looking at GFS and GEFS. Lol I'm a give it a couple more weeks

The GFS certainly isnt helping itself with runs like these