ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

NMME is bullish but the spring barrier period makes me not to believe it too much.

[Ntxw]

Peru has seen some devastating floods the past few days. Events like this for the country is more prone to occur during an El Nino. Could it be a harbinger of things to come? Having Nino 1+2 so warm and near their coastline certainly could have effected. Another similar episode happened in January.

https://watchers.news/2017/03/16/major-flooding-after-heavy-rains-hit-peru/

[Darvince]

Peruvian rainfall is most affected by Niño 1+2, so I don't think of this much as a harbinger of any Niño to come, rather more a failure of the upwelling in that area of the ocean which is much more volatile than the ENSO region anyways.

[Darvince]

Has anyone seen this? Any future followups on this and more study/investigation could possibly make ENSO forecasting a thing of the past, as we could know today, in 2017, what ENSO will be like all the way out to 2050 and beyond.

http://contextearth.com/2016/11/21/pres ... cember-12/

[cycloneye]

The Mid-March plume forecast of the ENSO models show borderline Weak to Moderate El Nino by ASO but again there is the spring barrier.

[Ntxw]

Repost from the Texas thread

ENSO update. SOI will rise the next week or two as we lose the bigger negatives in Feb being that it is a moving signal. Alone it is noisy but it context with other signals there is still no building yet of an El Nino. Much of the warming in the eastern basin is far too shallow and the walker cell circulation has not moved from the IO-Maritime continent. Within believable range another big burst of cooling trade winds is in the horizon, CFSv2 is pushing west winds back a bit more after early April.



There just can't be forging of El Nino until you get a succession of moderate to strong westerly wind bursts to slosh the Pacific and down-well a deep pool of above normal anomalies to flatten the thermocline or you will get an aborted event like 2012. Like with anything else, to get a good event of any kind there has to be a decent foundation in the Ocean and it's just not there yet nor is it building at this time. Tao/Triton buoys verifies this and we are in a state of neutral looking to remain so this spring.

[gigabite]

Has anyone seen this? Any future followups on this and more study/investigation could possibly make ENSO forecasting a thing of the past, as we could know today, in 2017, what ENSO will be like all the way out to 2050 and beyond.

http://contextearth.com/2016/11/21/pres ... cember-12/

I went to the site. there is a lot of interesting things being done with excel sheet macros. The solver macro is an Add In that comes with Excel. It could be useful to refine the long range hurricane forecasting. This is the link for the Add In instructions: https://support.office.com/en-us/articl ... 4772f078ca

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,Is big news if this pans out.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/843089657424465920




Michael Ventrice‏
 
Atmosphere is moving into the strongest La Nina base state observed since 2012. Forecast projects the index to push down to -1.1 sigma

[1900hurricane]

That makes sense at the current moment. Anomalous trades are currently being observed across the tropical Pacific, and while I don't have enough insight into the global patterns, the US pattern is certainly more Ninaish than anything at the moment. With that said, I'm still at the moment expecting a weaker El Nino to manifest itself by late next Autumn, which is still a ways away. At the moment, spring predictability barrier aside, it appears to me that we may be incrementally trending back towards a more El Nino direction by April.

[Kingarabian]

Hard for me to believe that any La-Nina will develop this year when you look at how warm the Nino regions are.

This is March 16, 2009 (moderate Nino year):



This is March 15, 2014 (weak Nino year):



And this is March 16, 2017:

[Hurricaneman]

Its true that the ENSO is heading for an El Nino but the atmosphere is not responding in kind, the atmosphere is more like a La Nina but thats why 2004 is an analog as that year had a similar thing going on with the atmosphere not responding to the El Nino but who knows what will happen by May or later

[Ntxw]

Well the atmosphere is in a more Nina like state because probably it's still lagging effects of the recent Nina. There's no Nino yet in the ocean to couple, so the atmosphere is just feeding back from what's been. Still need WWBs to start the changes which None is forecast the next 2 weeks.

[Ntxw]

3.4 warmed to 0.3C this update. Nino 1+2 is 2.6C, nino 3 is 0.8C, and nino 4 is 0.0C

[cycloneye]

3.4 warmed to 0.3C this update. Nino 1+2 is 2.6C, nino 3 is 0.8C, and nino 4 is 0.0C

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/844187177022083072

[Kingarabian]

Something else has to be going on @ Nino 1+2. For all its volatility, it has sustained moderately warm if not strong values for nearly 2 months now.

[Ntxw]

Last burst of trades this week. Then warmer west u winds anomalies showing near Nino 3.4 region

[Ntxw]

Something else has to be going on @ Nino 1+2. For all its volatility, it has sustained moderately warm if not strong values for nearly 2 months now.

Convection in this region can correlate with strong Caribbean shear

[Hurricaneman]

looks like the subsurface is seeing less positive anomalies which might indicate the El Nino might not come

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... zteq.shtml

And the SOI seems to be in the positive which would back up those claims

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/845319175996391424