Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/779695253087453184

[gatorcane]

Why so many pages on a pouch? Is this one more likely to develop than others before it?

It looks like it could be a significant threat to land, and as a potential major hurricane as well. Just like 99L/Hermine's thread.

But it is even more intriguing than Hermine since we have the GFS showing a CAT 5 in the Gulf. Plus overall models are even more bullish than Hermine.

By the way will the normally overbullish HWRF and GFDL show CAT 6s if the GFS is showing a CAT 5?

[AutoPenalti]

Why so many pages on a pouch? Is this one more likely to develop than others before it?

This is a threat to anyone located from Texas to SW Florida.

[toad strangler]

Why so many pages on a pouch? Is this one more likely to develop than others before it?

This is a threat to anyone located from Texas to SW Florida.

Mexico and the NE United States are in the game as well. It's WAY WAY too early to call that small of a impact zone.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/779703237054177280

[AJC3]

Well the models may have been overly optermistic with Hermine but the shear DID ease up with Hermine in the end and it DID end up a hurricane, so they weren't totally wrong with that.

Anyway this is a totally different system with a different set of potentials and you need to take each storm at its own merit. Just because the forecast busted for 1/2/3/4 storms, does not mean it will bust for storm 5 and having that attitude means you'll get caught out when that big one does come through...and it will...one day.

Also the GFS never showed a hurricane in the Bahamas like the Euro with Hermine. Now we have both GFS and Euro with a hurricane in the Western Caribbean.

You have that backwards. Several runs of the GFS had 99L becoming a sub-940MB low near or over the Bahamas well out past day 7, while the Euro showed squadoosh. Eventually they flip-flopped as the tracks shifted south toward and through the Florida straits - the ECM showed a much stronger system in the eastern GOMEX while the GFS trended much weaker.

[RL3AO]

Another look at the more favorable large scale environment due to a passing CCKW over the next few days from Dr. Schreck.

[northjaxpro]

NHC now up to 50% for TC development within 5 days. Given the agreement with the GFS and EURO, definitely not surprised by this at this time.

Should see invest designated very shortly I would think.

[TheStormExpert]

I am still very skeptical that a significant tropical cyclone will come from this. Been down this road way too many times in the past and this season as well. Not to mention the GFS was also showing Hermine bombing out to a Cat.5 for many days before dropping that solution. The Euro too did indeed have a Cat.1 hurricane into SE FL for many runs as well so what I'm seeing here seems kind of like Déjà Vu.

[Alyono]

I am still very skeptical that a significant tropical cyclone will come from this. Been down this road way too many times in the past and this season as well. Not to mention the GFS was also showing Hermine bombing out to a Cat.5 for many days before dropping that solution. The Euro too did indeed have a Cat.1 hurricane into SE FL for many runs as well so what I'm seeing here seems kind of like Déjà Vu.

how can this be de ja vu. TOTALLY different environmental conditions with the Kelvin wave coming through

[RL3AO]

I am still very skeptical that a significant tropical cyclone will come from this. Been down this road way too many times in the past and this season as well. Not to mention the GFS was also showing Hermine bombing out to a Cat.5 for many days before dropping that solution. The Euro too did indeed have a Cat.1 hurricane into SE FL for many runs as well so what I'm seeing here seems kind of like Déjà Vu.

I'm not silly enough to say "this is gonna be a major for sure", but I think this looks like it has a much more favorable large-scale environment (more moisture, more rising air, etc). Predicting the smaller scale upper lows that may shear this next week is difficult of course. I think this has a good chance of being a hurricane in the Caribbean next week though.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Weaker and further south it looks like so far this run on the GFS.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=vort850_uv200&runtime=2016092412&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=200

[centuryv58]

Weaker and further south it looks like so far this run on the GFS.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=vort850_uv200&runtime=2016092412&fh=102&xpos=0&ypos=200

Getting stronger with each pass.

[Alyono]

the intensification merely starts 6 to 12 hours later than the 6Z. It's really bombing out now in the east Caribbean

[mrbagyo]

The Gulf can support such lofty intensity - at least according to this Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity map by COLA

[RL3AO]

[img ]http://i.imgur.com/jhZwdfF.png[/img]

The Gulf can support such lofty intensity - at least according to this Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity map by COLA

It's September. Thats a given every year. It's the large scale atmospheric conditions that may be the most favorable of the season.

[cycloneye]

Just north of ABC islands at 956 mbs.

[Alyono]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 12.5N 55.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2016 96 12.5N 57.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 29.09.2016 108 13.1N 59.8W 1003 41
1200UTC 29.09.2016 120 13.2N 63.1W 998 52
0000UTC 30.09.2016 132 13.0N 65.8W 990 61
1200UTC 30.09.2016 144 12.5N 67.3W 987 58

[cycloneye]

Not following the ensembles so far.

[Emmett_Brown]

how are you guys viewing the hi res version of the GFS at Tidbits? I can't find it... for example, the pressure 186 hours is showing 990mb on the GFS map I'm viewing