Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[wxman57]

I don't trust the ECMWF solution of the storm stalling for 3 days before moving inland, given the predicted wind shear. I think it will most likely move ashore on the Alabama coast, not far west of Pensacola on Wednesday morning. However, don't focus on the landfall point, as heavy rain may extend hundreds of miles to the east, including even the FL Peninsula. Sheared TS at landfall, 45-50 kts.

[stormlover2013]

I wish we could get a dang invest, maybe we can get one today...

[TheStormExpert]

For us in Florida as wxman57 has been stating this is not a threat thanks to the semi-permanent high pressure system parked of the southeast. For the gulfcoast look out if this thing finds a pocket of low shear sst's are plenty warm for a potent storm.

For the peninsula this is likely not a direct landfall threat, but I would not rule out a FL panhandle landfall. 06z GEFS Ensembles have trended right again and stronger, though you have to take into account that the GFS loves to break down ridges too much.

I meant extreme southeast florida but yea panhandle sure this could come up your way. Lets get an invest first or a well established low level circulation.

Yeah I’m surprised this isn’t an invest yet too! We have an area of low pressure with a 30/60% chance of development, wonder what we’re missing?

[NDG]

UL forecast conditions for the GOM next week are not really that bad for this time of the year, per the GFS ensembles.

[SFLcane]

Is it early August?

[Aric Dunn]

And now what will visible show us this morning... hmmm

Radar is interesting but to far from where the circ would be to be conclusive.

[Dean4Storms]

I would make the case for now that everyone from Tampa northward then through the FL Panhandle to Eastern half of LA are all possibilities with the highest threat from New Orleans to Cross City, FL.

Would think for a South FL strike it would need to sit in the Western Carib. till mid to late next week. All depends on timing with any front and the Low's location.

[SFLcane]

Yep wxman57 lob-sided with most of wx on its east side. Could be a tornado threat across the FL peninsula with rainbands.

[jlauderdal]

I don't trust the ECMWF solution of the storm stalling for 3 days before moving inland, given the predicted wind shear. I think it will most likely move ashore on the Alabama coast, not far west of Pensacola on Wednesday morning. However, don't focus on the landfall point, as heavy rain may extend hundreds of miles to the east, including even the FL Peninsula. Sheared TS at landfall, 45-50 kts.

this is the most reasonable solution I have seen so far, models are ok but at the end of the day the day i will go with 57's forecast on this one

[SFLcane]

06z GFS does not even develop this...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1048191881631485952

[NDG]

First vis sat loop shows yet another weak LLC/eddy rotating around out of the high clouds north of the eastern Honduran coast. This still has a long way to go. IMO.

[SFLcane]

00z EPS..

[SFLcane]

Not much to see on that loop NDG this thing has a long way to go before it becomes a real problem for anyone.

[SFLcane]

On the other hand maybe we do have an invest

[SconnieCane]

LOL going for the exceedingly rare EPAC to ATL crossover.

[SFLcane]

If that is indeed were llc develops all bets are off on were this makes landfall i'd think.

[Frank P]

Well on the vis sat loops that area in the pacific looks like it has the best circulation of any in the gyre.. not surprised at all after just reviewing the loops.. still think it will all depend on timing issue as the case in most late season storms with forecasted front approaching... faster = NGOM, slower = FL Panhandle and areas eastward... so unless it gets up and starts to get running northward every passing day would let me to think it would be from the west panhandle and points eastward.. JMHO...

[stormlover2013]

what's sad is the nam has been pretty consistent short term on this but we know the nam is usually bad

[SFLcane]

Well on the vis sat loops that area in the pacific looks like it has the best circulation of any in the gyre.. not surprised at all after just reviewing the loops.. still think it will all depend on timing issue as the case in most late season storms with forecasted front approaching... faster = NGOM, slower = FL Panhandle and areas eastward... so unless it gets up and starts to get running northward every passing day would let me to think it would be from the west panhandle and points eastward.. JMHO...

Slowler movement -> more Eastward