2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1537758489346461698




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1537762168682254336




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1537764825635377152

[MGC]

18Z GEFS with more CAG bias

https://i.imgur.com/5jtLm0y.png

If the GFS and ensembles were right, the entire Gulf coast would already be destroyed this season. Meanwhile, the Euro is like:

I think the GFS is due for some kind of intervention or perhaps a stint in an asylum. Today's 12Z run has another potent hurricane headed for the north gulf coast. Sad thing is I think the GFS will be correct eventually.....MGC

[toad strangler]

18Z GEFS with more CAG bias

https://i.imgur.com/5jtLm0y.png

If the GFS and ensembles were right, the entire Gulf coast would already be destroyed this season. Meanwhile, the Euro is like:

I think the GFS is due for some kind of intervention or perhaps a stint in an asylum. Today's 12Z run has another potent hurricane headed for the north gulf coast. Sad thing is I think the GFS will be correct eventually.....MGC

More spurious SA vort action and at well over 300 hours I wouldn't give it another second of thought

[Category5Kaiju]

When the GFS constantly keeps spitting out major GoM hurricanes in June run after run after run

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TyBTime/status/1537821621137854465

[zzh]

[skyline385]

Not a fan of this ensemble run with some of those MDR runners

[skyline385]

EPS with similar MDR runners

[aspen]

The GFS won’t give up with its WCar storm. The time frame has moved up, with development starting on Wednesday.

Sure the GFS has a seriously problematic WCar/CAG bias, but at least with 93L, it correctly predicted an area with potential to develop. This might be a similar case, and ends up buried in Central America.

[wwizard]

Sad thing is I think the GFS will be correct eventually.....MGC

Sure. If you throw enough stuff against a wall something will eventually stick.

Didn’t I read somewhere that the GFS had some sort of upgrade this year? If so, sounds like they need another to fix the bugs in this one. Anything past 7 days is pretty much useless with this thing.

[Hammy]

Sad thing is I think the GFS will be correct eventually.....MGC

Sure. If you throw enough stuff against a wall something will eventually stick.

Didn’t I read somewhere that the GFS had some sort of upgrade this year? If so, sounds like they need another to fix the bugs in this one. Anything past 7 days is pretty much useless with this thing.

GFS has long-term problems with spinning up the CAG, and the upgrades don't seem to be helping that, even if they're helping with past tendencies to spin up endless tropical storms in the MDR. There seems to be a constant over-amplification of troughs (GFS always shows more snow/colder temps in the Southeast than what occurs, recurves storms too far east/too early, as other examples) along with developing things too quickly--even things that do end up developing--the end result of which is excessive false positives on the Caribbean side of Central America.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro has some east coast action in about 5 days or so:

[Kingarabian]

A MDR system in about 8-10 days is becoming more believeable. A big reason is due to the trades slowing down significantly for an extended period of time in the area.

[MHC Tracking]

00x ECMWF ensembles hinting at potential development off the Eastern Seaboard. GEFS has a signal but not one as strong as ECENS. Might lean towards ECENS more given better responses to quick spinups near the US East Coast in the past (see Bill 2021, Danny)

[Category5Kaiju]

A MDR system in about 8-10 days is becoming more believeable. A big reason is due to the trades slowing down significantly for an extended period of time in the area.

https://i.imgur.com/fGR2ea2.png
https://i.imgur.com/c9CF77s.png

Genuinely curious, but I wonder how this predicted period of relaxed trades compares to the time when we had Dennis and Emily, Bertha (2008), or Elsa of last year

[skyline385]

MDR activity continuing to pick up, there is one member in the Gulf already (rest are CAG phantoms)

[Category5Kaiju]

[cycloneye]

Two strong waves on operational ECMWF.

[skyline385]

Loop of the 12Z EURO with two potential systems, those ensembles members are finally starting to materialize now

[captainbarbossa19]

Two strong waves on operational ECMWF.

https://i.imgur.com/c12jm7g.gif

What is interesting is that instead of the wave getting weaker in the Caribbean, it is getting stronger.