Discussion of Intense Tropical Cyclones

[Monisae]

I got a good question for y'all, if reconnaissance never went into Hurricane Patricia 2015, (Like most WPAC storms), what would your estimates be? Feel free to provide explanations as to why!

I'm guess NHC will gave 150kt for Patricia if there's no recon because they never use polar, Patricia was cmg+ow on GEO and it went to 7.0 Dvorak.
Here's a good example how NHC underrated hurricanes in EPAC, they only gave 115kt for Simon 2014

[Hurricane2000]

I got a good question for y'all, if reconnaissance never went into Hurricane Patricia 2015, (Like most WPAC storms), what would your estimates be? Feel free to provide explanations as to why!

I'm guess NHC will gave 150kt for Patricia if there's no recon because they never use polar, Patricia was cmg+ow on GEO and it went to 7.0 Dvorak.
Here's a good example how NHC underrated hurricanes in EPAC, they only gave 115kt for Simon 2014
https://i.postimg.cc/wvqX6y05/simon-avhrr.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/W14tbmv1/simon-viirs.jpg

Nice images! Do you have any of Patricia?

[Hurricane2000]

Does anyone here know the lowest pressure measured in Hurricane Patricia 2015? Wikipedia says 879mb, CIMSS says 878.4mb, and people I've asked on X (Twitter) said it was 878mb. Could anyone here help clear things up? Thanks!

[ljmac75]

Does anyone here know the lowest pressure measured in Hurricane Patricia 2015? Wikipedia says 879mb, CIMSS says 878.4mb, and people I've asked on X (Twitter) said it was 878mb. Could anyone here help clear things up? Thanks!

I checked a recon archive (https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... m=Patricia) and it looks like the lowest dropsonde pressures were 885 with a 57 kt wind and 883 with a 47 kt wind, which would adjust to around 879 and 878 using the standard 1 mb pressure for every 10 kt wind rule in the eye. Lowest extrapolated pressure (pressure vs height extrapolation) was 878.4 mb.

[Hurricane2000]

Does anyone here know the lowest pressure measured in Hurricane Patricia 2015? Wikipedia says 879mb, CIMSS says 878.4mb, and people I've asked on X (Twitter) said it was 878mb. Could anyone here help clear things up? Thanks!

I checked a recon archive (https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... m=Patricia) and it looks like the lowest dropsonde pressures were 885 with a 57 kt wind and 883 with a 47 kt wind, which would adjust to around 879 and 878 using the standard 1 mb pressure for every 10 kt wind rule in the eye. Lowest extrapolated pressure (pressure vs height extrapolation) was 878.4 mb.

Thanks! Is there anywhere I can find the 878.4mb extrapolation?

[Travorum]

Does anyone here know the lowest pressure measured in Hurricane Patricia 2015? Wikipedia says 879mb, CIMSS says 878.4mb, and people I've asked on X (Twitter) said it was 878mb. Could anyone here help clear things up? Thanks!

I checked a recon archive (https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... m=Patricia) and it looks like the lowest dropsonde pressures were 885 with a 57 kt wind and 883 with a 47 kt wind, which would adjust to around 879 and 878 using the standard 1 mb pressure for every 10 kt wind rule in the eye. Lowest extrapolated pressure (pressure vs height extrapolation) was 878.4 mb.

Thanks! Is there anywhere I can find the 878.4mb extrapolation?

That recon archive has the HDOB message with the 878.4mb extrap here: https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... .4-181-166

[Hurricane2000]

I checked a recon archive (https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... m=Patricia) and it looks like the lowest dropsonde pressures were 885 with a 57 kt wind and 883 with a 47 kt wind, which would adjust to around 879 and 878 using the standard 1 mb pressure for every 10 kt wind rule in the eye. Lowest extrapolated pressure (pressure vs height extrapolation) was 878.4 mb.

Thanks! Is there anywhere I can find the 878.4mb extrapolation?

That recon archive has the HDOB message with the 878.4mb extrap here: https://tropicaleastpacific.com/recon/r ... .4-181-166

Thanks again!

[Hurricane2000]

Does anyone here know where I can find the source for the 878mb reading in Typhoon Meranti 2016? If my memory serves correctly, it was taken at Itbayat Municipal Hall and was 877.9mb, rounded to 878mb. However I can't seem to find the original source anywhere, only the 883mb reading. Thanks

[mrbagyo]

Does anyone here know where I can find the source for the 878mb reading in Typhoon Meranti 2016? If my memory serves correctly, it was taken at Itbayat Municipal Hall and was 877.9mb, rounded to 878mb. However I can't seem to find the original source anywhere, only the 883mb reading. Thanks

here you go

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=118290&start=260


original source : https://philsensors.asti.dost.gov.ph/site/data

[Hurricane2000]

Thank you

[Hurricane2000]

It's likely been brought up before, but I think it deserves more discussion, it's Cyclone Phailin 2013! This storm had a really good structure as well as a very warm and dry eye thanks to Polar Satellites. Also not to mention the buoy measurement of ~920mb after peak and possibly not in the eye! Someone estimated Phailin to have 190mph winds and a pressure in the 890s! What do you think? How strong was Phailin really?
Edit: Some people say this could have rivaled the 1999 Odisha Cyclone!

[Hurricane2000]

I've done some more research and Phailin could have had winds of 190mph and a pressure in the 890s!

[Ptarmigan]

Looking at the satellite image of Phailin, it looks like a very intense storm. The satellite image of Phailin is similar to other intense tropical cyclones I have seen in the past.

[Hurricane2000]

Hurricane Olivia 1982 seems to be majorly underestimated, it had 2 peaks, one with a pinhole eye and very good outflow, and another with medium sized eye. I'll post images of it when I get home

[Hurricane2000]

Olivia 1982 at its first peak Insane

[kevin]

In a similar fashion as I did for storms like Jova and Gaemi, here is my analysis of the potential peak intensity of Humberto since there is a good chance it'll be upgraded a bit in post-season analysis. I first calculated the expected wind speed of hurricane Humberto based on the different satellite estimates and then used this wind speed value with the KZC wind-pressure relationship to find the associated pressure.

ADT
2025SEP27 214019 6.9 926.1 137.4 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.02 -72.98 EYE 18 IR 33.8 22.93 61.23 ARCHER GOES19 31.1
2025SEP27 224019 7.0 923.7 140.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.63 -71.83 EYE 18 IR 82.6 22.98 61.37 ARCHER GOES19 31.1
2025SEP28 041019 7.0 923.4 140.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 17.05 -67.56 EYE 15 IR 82.6 23.40 62.43 ARCHER GOES19 30.9

Raw T# peaked at 7.1 with a peak in CI# of 7.0. T#7.0 thus seems reasonable and I used its associated peak intensity value of 140 kt, 923 mb for the ADT intensity estimate.

AiDT
20250928 011019 140 139 140
20250928 014019 140 139 140
20250928 021019 140 139 140
20250928 024019 140 139 140
20250928 031019 140 139 140

During the same time period AiDT peaked with a peak strength of 139 kt.

AMSU
Unfortunately I can't find the live AMSU archive for Humberto. At 29Sep2025, 0629UTC AMSU had 129kt/931mb, but the peak intensity was likely the day before for which I can't find the data. Considering that other estimates around 0600UTC 29Sep were 115 - 127 kt, I'd assume that AMSU at peak intensity was in the 140 - 145 kt range.

D-MINT
20250927 2012 UTC SSMISF18 939 hPa 133 kts 126 kts 140 kts

D-MINT had a peak intensity of 133 kt, 939 mb.

D-PRINT
20250928 0140 UTC 935 hPa 140 kts 133 kts 147 kts
At a similar time D-PRINT peaked at 140 kt, 935 mb.

SATCON
2025 AL 08 271.021 2025SEP28 003019 23.08 61.66 3 938 132

In terms of wind speed SATCON peaked at 132 kt, 938 mb (a few hours later there was a slightly lower pressure estimate of 936 mb). SATCON also shows a slightly stronger 134 kt peak yesterday, but since it doesn't align with all the other peak estimates I used this one.

Wind blend
The above estimates show a peak intensity sometime between 20:00z Sep 27 and 04:00 Sep 28. I would indeed blend this to 140 kt.

KZC relationship
Now I use the KZC relationship to find a potentially more accurate pressure value associated with the wind speed of 140 kt. For this I used the following input values during peak intensity of 03:00z.
Vmax = 140 kt
C = 11 kt
R34 = 98 nm
Lat = 23.4 deg
Background pressure = 1011 mb

This then results in a pressure estimate of 923 mb.

Conclusion
The official peak intensity for hurricane Humberto is 140 kt, 924 mb. Based on a blend of all available satellite estimates and the KZC relationship, I estimate that Humberto's peak intensity was indeed around those values, I'd say 140 kt, 923 mb in the early hours of September 28. If there is evidence that Humberto's peak was 145 kt or 150 kt, this would result in a KZC pressure of 918 mb or 913 mb, respectively. Another reason which could warrant a lower peak pressure would be if the R34 (gale-force radius) was significantly larger than 98 nm at peak intensity. At the moment the R34 of Humberto is 128 nm (based on the latest recon) which would also shave off another 2 - 3 mb if that was the case at peak intensity as well. But all in all, the current peak intensity estimate seems very reasonable to me.

[Ubuntwo]

Conclusion
The official peak intensity for hurricane Humberto is 140 kt, 924 mb. Based on a blend of all available satellite estimates and the KZC relationship, I estimate that Humberto's peak intensity was indeed around those values, I'd say 140 kt, 923 mb in the early hours of September 28. If there is evidence that Humberto's peak was 145 kt or 150 kt, this would result in a KZC pressure of 918 mb or 913 mb, respectively. Another reason which could warrant a lower peak pressure would be if the R34 (gale-force radius) was significantly larger than 98 nm at peak intensity. At the moment the R34 of Humberto is 128 nm (based on the latest recon) which would also shave off another 2 - 3 mb if that was the case at peak intensity as well. But all in all, the current peak intensity estimate seems very reasonable to me.

It's worth noting that recon measured 928 mb in Humberto mid-ERC, and pressure rises average ~15 mb during ERCs in intense tropical cyclones. A rise of only 5 mb from peak to that recon pass would be abnormal, especially considering the level of deterioration noted by the time recon arrived and the rate of filling observed. Extrapolation of this observation strongly suggests <=920 mb at peak with Humberto.

[aspen]

Conclusion
The official peak intensity for hurricane Humberto is 140 kt, 924 mb. Based on a blend of all available satellite estimates and the KZC relationship, I estimate that Humberto's peak intensity was indeed around those values, I'd say 140 kt, 923 mb in the early hours of September 28. If there is evidence that Humberto's peak was 145 kt or 150 kt, this would result in a KZC pressure of 918 mb or 913 mb, respectively. Another reason which could warrant a lower peak pressure would be if the R34 (gale-force radius) was significantly larger than 98 nm at peak intensity. At the moment the R34 of Humberto is 128 nm (based on the latest recon) which would also shave off another 2 - 3 mb if that was the case at peak intensity as well. But all in all, the current peak intensity estimate seems very reasonable to me.

It's worth noting that recon measured 928 mb in Humberto mid-ERC, and pressure rises average ~15 mb during ERCs in intense tropical cyclones. A rise of only 5 mb from peak to that recon pass would be abnormal, especially considering the level of deterioration noted by the time recon arrived and the rate of filling observed. Extrapolation of this observation strongly suggests <=920 mb at peak with Humberto.

Humberto was quite likely <920 mbar, but I wonder if its EWRC-induced pressure rise was less than normal for a system of its intensity due to how long the inner eyewall was maintained for. Even the pressure gradient during that first recon pass wasn’t quite as broad as I expected. Perhaps its central pressure was only 10 or so mbar less than reported, rather than 15+ mbar.

A safe estimate I’d go with is 145 kt/918 mbar. Realistically, it probably hit somewhere around 150 kt. Outside (but not zero) chance it went full Dorian.

[Ptarmigan]

Olivia 1982 at its first peak Insane
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ab/Olivia_1982-09-21_0000Z.png

Olivia looks impressive. That looks like a Category 5 to me.

[Hurricane2000]

In a similar fashion as I did for storms like Jova and Gaemi, here is my analysis of the potential peak intensity of Humberto since there is a good chance it'll be upgraded a bit in post-season analysis. I first calculated the expected wind speed of hurricane Humberto based on the different satellite estimates and then used this wind speed value with the KZC wind-pressure relationship to find the associated pressure.

ADT
2025SEP27 214019 6.9 926.1 137.4 6.9 7.1 7.1 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.02 -72.98 EYE 18 IR 33.8 22.93 61.23 ARCHER GOES19 31.1
2025SEP27 224019 7.0 923.7 140.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.63 -71.83 EYE 18 IR 82.6 22.98 61.37 ARCHER GOES19 31.1
2025SEP28 041019 7.0 923.4 140.0 6.3 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT ON FLG OFF OFF 17.05 -67.56 EYE 15 IR 82.6 23.40 62.43 ARCHER GOES19 30.9

Raw T# peaked at 7.1 with a peak in CI# of 7.0. T#7.0 thus seems reasonable and I used its associated peak intensity value of 140 kt, 923 mb for the ADT intensity estimate.

AiDT
20250928 011019 140 139 140
20250928 014019 140 139 140
20250928 021019 140 139 140
20250928 024019 140 139 140
20250928 031019 140 139 140

During the same time period AiDT peaked with a peak strength of 139 kt.

AMSU
Unfortunately I can't find the live AMSU archive for Humberto. At 29Sep2025, 0629UTC AMSU had 129kt/931mb, but the peak intensity was likely the day before for which I can't find the data. Considering that other estimates around 0600UTC 29Sep were 115 - 127 kt, I'd assume that AMSU at peak intensity was in the 140 - 145 kt range.

D-MINT
20250927 2012 UTC SSMISF18 939 hPa 133 kts 126 kts 140 kts

D-MINT had a peak intensity of 133 kt, 939 mb.

D-PRINT
20250928 0140 UTC 935 hPa 140 kts 133 kts 147 kts
At a similar time D-PRINT peaked at 140 kt, 935 mb.

SATCON
2025 AL 08 271.021 2025SEP28 003019 23.08 61.66 3 938 132

In terms of wind speed SATCON peaked at 132 kt, 938 mb (a few hours later there was a slightly lower pressure estimate of 936 mb). SATCON also shows a slightly stronger 134 kt peak yesterday, but since it doesn't align with all the other peak estimates I used this one.

Wind blend
The above estimates show a peak intensity sometime between 20:00z Sep 27 and 04:00 Sep 28. I would indeed blend this to 140 kt.

KZC relationship
Now I use the KZC relationship to find a potentially more accurate pressure value associated with the wind speed of 140 kt. For this I used the following input values during peak intensity of 03:00z.
Vmax = 140 kt
C = 11 kt
R34 = 98 nm
Lat = 23.4 deg
Background pressure = 1011 mb

This then results in a pressure estimate of 923 mb.

Conclusion
The official peak intensity for hurricane Humberto is 140 kt, 924 mb. Based on a blend of all available satellite estimates and the KZC relationship, I estimate that Humberto's peak intensity was indeed around those values, I'd say 140 kt, 923 mb in the early hours of September 28. If there is evidence that Humberto's peak was 145 kt or 150 kt, this would result in a KZC pressure of 918 mb or 913 mb, respectively. Another reason which could warrant a lower peak pressure would be if the R34 (gale-force radius) was significantly larger than 98 nm at peak intensity. At the moment the R34 of Humberto is 128 nm (based on the latest recon) which would also shave off another 2 - 3 mb if that was the case at peak intensity as well. But all in all, the current peak intensity estimate seems very reasonable to me.

Are you going to do one of these for Ragasa?