2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

GFS with Western Caribbean development last couple of runs.

[crownweather]

GFS with Western Caribbean development last couple of runs.

European model too, especially in the ensembles for next week.

[CourierPR]

GFS with Western Caribbean development last couple of runs.

European model too, especially in the ensembles for next week.

How far out in time is the genesis?

[crownweather]

GFS with Western Caribbean development last couple of runs.

European model too, especially in the ensembles for next week.

How far out in time is the genesis?

180 hours on the Euro and 192 hours on the GFS model.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS with the strongest signal yet for said Caribbean development. This run sends a strengthening storm into the W GOM

[Dean4Storms]

12z GFS eventually takes what little is left of Karen well east of FL out to sea but develops a Hurricane up out of the Western Carib and across the southern Gulf toward Mexico.


Edit: Gets hung up in the western BOC but beginning a north move by 348hr

[SFLcane]

12z GFS with the strongest signal yet for said Caribbean development. This run sends a strengthening storm into the W GOM

Long range...Past few runs from the GFS has high pressure driving whatever is there into CA or in this case Mexico.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS with the strongest signal yet for said Caribbean development. This run sends a strengthening storm into the W GOM

Long range...Past few runs from the GFS has high pressure driving whatever is there into CA or in this case Mexico.

This is a long range thread
Anyhow, the 12Z GFS stalls a Cat 4ish 'cane in the SW GOM in the very long range and then moves it out to the ENE at 384 hrs fantasy range.

[HurricaneBelle]

12z GFS eventually takes what little is left of Karen well east of FL out to sea but develops a Hurricane up out of the Western Carib and across the southern Gulf toward Mexico.


Edit: Gets hung up in the western BOC but beginning a north move by 348hr

Appears to be trying to replicate Opal's track

[SFLcane]

12z GFS with the strongest signal yet for said Caribbean development. This run sends a strengthening storm into the W GOM

Long range...Past few runs from the GFS has high pressure driving whatever is there into CA or in this case Mexico.

This is a long range thread
Anyhow, the 12Z GFS stalls a Cat 4ish 'cane in the SW GOM in the very long range and then moves it out to the ENE at 384 hrs fantasy range.

That ENE movement you can keep. Hopefully not a trend.

[LarryWx]

GFS with Western Caribbean development last couple of runs.

Some support by the 12Z GEFS for hours 336-384 with about 25% of members with 999 mb or stronger fwiw. Fairly similar to the prior two runs.

[Hammy]

Latest GFS eerily similar to a CFS run from months ago around the same time near the end of the run.

[SFLcane]

Very little signal on GEFS though.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF has a low pressure area in the Western Caribbean by 168 hours.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Believe it or not, I can’t, the gfs hasn’t been pushing back the formation date every run. Went and looked back and the gfs has been showing this forming around the October 6th timeframe since Sunday. This might be a real storm, but we’re are still talking 8 days out.

[catskillfire51]

Euro shows an area of low pressure hitting the Texas Coast at 216

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1176948367865319424

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1176976914461777920

[AnnularCane]

Since the girls have been getting gypped all season, I'm guessing this will be Nestor, and Melissa will be something weak and short-lived elsewhere.

[Ivanhater]

Getting to that time of year. Michael came from this type of setup