2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[SFLcane]

Cansips Trends on MSLP for Sept.

https://i.ibb.co/TwShB8T/1ec56cbb-24a1-4dc0-9986-b1f644001dc5.gif

https://i.ibb.co/mRbp4W7/9b46362f-20a5-4718-860b-3639dc84a008.gif

Looks over cooked there but the Atl should be very favorable this season.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've been looking at the GOM and the Loop Current in particular and it is starting to look like it might try to pinch off a warm eddy at some point. They generally move slowly west when they do pinch off. This can lead to RI for storms that pass over it. This happened in 2005.

[skyline385]

Probably the first signal of the season on EPS weeklies coinciding with the MJO passage



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1786531319423639912

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1786761102929346829

[weeniepatrol]

OHC.

[cycloneye]

OHC.

https://i.imgur.com/yKoms2o.gif

Here is 2010. Wow, 2024 dominates easy.

[JetFuel_SE]

OHC.

https://i.imgur.com/yKoms2o.gif

Wonder how the current OHC compares to the peak OHC in those seasons.

[LarryWx]

OHC.

https://i.imgur.com/yKoms2o.gif

Here is 2010. Wow, 2024 dominates easy.

https://i.imgur.com/a3m4yt6.jpeg

Luis,
When considering what level each color represents, I think 2024 and 2010 are likely closer together than how it appears. Example: yellow is ~100 on 2010 but only ~85 on 2024.

[skyline385]

OHC.

https://i.imgur.com/yKoms2o.gif

Here is 2010. Wow, 2024 dominates easy.

https://i.imgur.com/a3m4yt6.jpeg

Luis,
When considering what level each color represents, I think 2024 and 2010 are likely closer together than how it appears. Example: yellow is ~100 on 2010 but only ~85 on 2024.

Yea i remember Brian McNoldy talked about it on Twitter, the scale was expanded around 2017 iirc

[skyline385]

Probably the first signal of the season on EPS weeklies coinciding with the MJO passage

https://i.ibb.co/W3y2HfT/ps2png-worker-commands-78bc46dfbc-8m6lz-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-w-BJHjc.png

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1786531319423639912

Same EPS run as above

[cycloneye]

ECMWF has a very active season proyected in this May run with ACE around 250. Yikes.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seaso ... 0&zone=atl

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow....um, I don't really have much to comment on aside from praying that whatever forms this year stays on out to sea.

In tropical weather, it's more often than not a bad idea to exaggerate or turn things into hyperbole. Could cause additional, unnecessary panic, etc. You know what I mean.

But given the indicators for this season, I'm confident to say that this might be that rare exception, and I'll say it right now as bluntly as I can.

2024 has the potential to go down in history and be a season that wx people talk about and reference extensively in future years. Much like 1933. 2004. 2005. 2017. And 2020.

[Hurricane2022]

But given the indicators for this season, I'm confident to say that this might be that rare exception, and I'll say it right now as bluntly as I can.

2024 has the potential to go down in history and be a season that wx people talk about and reference extensively in future years, Much more than 2004. 2017. 2020. And even 2005 and 1933.

[Teban54]

The EC seasonal forecast is even more aggressive with MDR warmth. It's just getting absurd at this point.
 https://twitter.com/daniloevan11/status/1787112555128696935

[skyline385]

Not a big fan of the ridging shown at all, all seasonal models seem to be trending towards strong ridging

[LarryWx]

The EC seasonal forecast is even more aggressive with MDR warmth. It's just getting absurd at this point.
https://twitter.com/daniloevan11/status/1787112555128696935?s=19

One can also see that the Euro restrengthened La Niña as was shown in Luis’ post. The Euro had significantly warmed ENSO from its Mar forecast to its Apr forecast and now has reversed that/significantly cooled it back.

[blp]

What a difference

April Forecast:


May Forecast:

[cajungal]

It is beyond our control. All we can do is prepare for the worse and hope for the best that gloom and doom is wrong. But if another Ida comes for my area, I don’t think I can remain here.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1787144219838058525

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/WeatherProf/status/1787216343625814314