TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#781 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:29 pm

been moving due west since yesterday

#782 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:29 pm

The question of not finding a discernable circulation arises the question, should a RECON investigate Irene? I think so.

sma10 · #783 Postby **sma10** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:29 pm

Thanks, Luis....

I was aware that it was only a test, but I wasn't sure if there was a rhyme or reason to choosing those specific coordinates. Perhaps those are the standard coordinates used during a test.....

#784 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:31 pm

That point - 23N/75W is their typical test point. It is meaningless.

sma10 · #785 Postby **sma10** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:31 pm

HURAKAN wrote:The question of not finding a discernable circulation arises the question, should a RECON investigate Irene? I think so.

I had actually posed the question earlier today when the first recon will be scheduled on this system. I know that when a cyclone or invest is heading toward the leewards/windwards, the NHC usually dispatches the first recon when the system crosses approximately 55W.

#786 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:32 pm

And something that ISN'T meaningless, a new McIdas loop with the 1815Z image:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ireneloopAug9.gif

Again, if you try downloading this with dial-up, Irene will be long gone by the time it finishes loading. ;-)

#787 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:33 pm

im pretty darn glad i got cable.

<RICKY>

MiamiensisWx · #788 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:35 pm

If you look closely at the general movement of the clouds there appears to be a very clear circulation. As I mentioned before, there is not yet a true center, but the general motion is a circular motion which may indicate a center trying to develop. If you look at the NHC's loop, do you notice something?

#789 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:41 pm

09/1745 UTC 22.2N 53.7W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

#790 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:42 pm

cycloneye wrote: 09/1745 UTC 22.2N 53.7W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

an ever so slight south and east reposition of the center right?

<RICKY>

#791 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:43 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
cycloneye wrote: 09/1745 UTC 22.2N 53.7W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

an ever so slight south and east reposition of the center right?

<RICKY>

yes .1s and .2 east

clfenwi · #792 Postby **clfenwi** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:44 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
cycloneye wrote: 09/1745 UTC 22.2N 53.7W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

an ever so slight south and east reposition of the center right?

<RICKY>

Compared to official position, yes. However, compared to the last position estimate by SSD, it is .4° west.

Would be interesting to know what the other agencies' estimates were.

#793 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:45 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
cycloneye wrote: 09/1745 UTC 22.2N 53.7W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

an ever so slight south and east reposition of the center right?

<RICKY>

That's insignificant, since it doesn't seem to have any well-defined center. It's not like we're tracking the tight eye of a hurricane here. It's just a broad swirl of clouds with a possible center somewhere out there - or maybe not.

#794 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
cycloneye wrote: 09/1745 UTC 22.2N 53.7W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

an ever so slight south and east reposition of the center right?

<RICKY>

That's insignificant, since it doesn't seem to have any well-defined center. It's not like we're tracking the tight eye of a hurricane here. It's just a broad swirl of clouds with a possible center somewhere out there - or maybe not.

thats exactly why i just asked a question......

<RICKY>

Sanibel · #795 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:47 pm

Good outflow developing NE quadrant...

#796 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:48 pm

Sanibel wrote:Good outflow developing NE quadrant...

yeah. its slowly getting organized and it will take some time.

<RICKY>

#797 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:51 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050809 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050809 1800 050810 0600 050810 1800 050811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 54.0W 22.7N 55.7W 23.2N 57.5W 23.9N 59.4W
BAMM 22.5N 54.0W 22.6N 56.0W 23.1N 58.1W 23.7N 60.1W
A98E 22.5N 54.0W 22.6N 55.3W 23.0N 57.0W 23.9N 58.9W
LBAR 22.5N 54.0W 22.4N 55.5W 23.1N 57.3W 24.1N 59.2W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050811 1800 050812 1800 050813 1800 050814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 24.8N 61.3W 26.6N 64.8W 27.4N 66.9W 27.4N 70.1W
BAMM 24.5N 62.0W 25.9N 65.2W 26.4N 67.4W 25.9N 70.4W
A98E 25.3N 61.0W 26.9N 65.0W 28.1N 67.8W 27.8N 70.1W
LBAR 24.9N 61.0W 27.2N 63.8W 28.7N 64.8W 28.9N 66.0W
SHIP 52KTS 59KTS 61KTS 60KTS
DSHP 52KTS 59KTS 61KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.5N LONCUR = 54.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 53.1W DIRM12 = 257DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 22.4N LONM24 = 50.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = M

18:00 Models.

#798 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:54 pm

looks like a slight northward shift.

<RICKY>

sma10 · #799 Postby **sma10** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:54 pm

Interesting run here....I'm starting to wonder if that east coast ridge might not end up being a lot stronger than expected. Notice the behavior of all 4 models from day 4 to day 5: motion expected to be either West or South West.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #800 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Aug 09, 2005 1:54 pm

Irene reminds me of the song "Go West"

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