ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Alyono]

Could those winds support warming in the Atlantic?

Those strong trade winds aren't directly related to the Atlantic. (I suppose, however, that this could POSSIBLY have an indirect significant effect on the Atlantic.)

Sorry, I wasn't being clear enough, I meant that patch of Orange and Red east of 60W, is that the type of wind that promotes warming?

may be the Atlantic el niño that was mentioned last month

[Kingarabian]

WWBs dont affect the Atlantic AFAIK.

They also correlate with ENSO and they only happen in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

[Kingarabian]

Before it flips back to negative wouldn't the MJO have to get to at least phase 4 if not phase 5?

Edit: More like phase 5 if not phase 6.

As I thought, it will take a little while longer for the SOI to go back to negative, at least another 7-10 days if the Euro is correct with its MJO forecast.

20 May 2017 1013.29 1009.50 17.33 -3.18

Ever since that one Euro run from about a week ago showing a sharp drop to well below normal SLP's at Tahiti, none have suggested an imminent return to solid -SOI's. We'll likely have a fall during the next couple of days, which MAY dip slightly into -SOI territory, but even if so they then look to quickly rise back into +SOI territory for the balance of May (at least) IF the latest guidance is correct.

We should see a neutral reading for the end of today. Looks like there will be lower pressures over Tahiti for the next couple of days so we could sneak out some negatives.

[Kingarabian]

Ever since that one Euro run from about a week ago showing a sharp drop to well below normal SLP's at Tahiti, none have suggested an imminent return to solid -SOI's. We'll likely have a fall during the next couple of days, which MAY dip slightly into -SOI territory, but even if so they then look to quickly rise back into +SOI territory for the balance of May (at least) IF the latest guidance is correct.

I see the 12z GFS and Euro continue to show consistent higher than normal pressures in about 5 days over Darwin. Although they still show above normal pressures over Tahiti compared to the 30-year average, I think those pressure values would be enough to get negatives. Because from the April into early May drop, pressures at Darwin and Tahiti would be higher than normal from the GFS and Euro, and still we would see negatives.

Then if the EPS weeklies are to verify, we will see a very negative June.

[Kingarabian]

Unless LongPaddock decide to user different pressures, we should see a negative drop today. Should be negative for the rest of the week. This will allow the trades to weaken and potentially setup a WWB for June.

[weathaguyry]

Unless LongPaddock decide to user different pressures, we should see a negative drop today. Should be negative for the rest of the week. This will allow the trades to weaken and potentially setup a WWB for June.

It came in at 2.47 today

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 will be 0.4C this week. Nino 4 and 3 nudged down a little bit and Nino 1.2 nudged up to 1.1C

[cycloneye]

Text of the CPC 5/22/17 update that has Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C.





http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[dexterlabio]

I remember someone mentioned here that the Nino regions tend to cool down (plus SOI rising to positive values) when the MJO pulse is in the Indian Ocean. So far the MJO signal is strong but is expected to enter the circle then be reborn in the Indian Ocean again before crossing to MC...perhaps we should expect more cooling or "anti-El Nino" effects over the next several days?

[dexterlabio]

Unless LongPaddock decide to user different pressures, we should see a negative drop today. Should be negative for the rest of the week. This will allow the trades to weaken and potentially setup a WWB for June.

This could be the case especially if strong MJO signal manages to move across the Pacific in the first half of June.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/866657934654279680



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/866658131132198912

[Alyono]

how is Ventrice getting -.4 when NOAA has +1.1?

[Hurricaneman]

how is Ventrice getting -.4 when NOAA has +1.1?

I think the CDAS temperature anomalies are wrong and he's going with those values

[Kingarabian]

how is Ventrice getting -.4 when NOAA has +1.1?

He's not the only one. Quite a few other mets on youtube and twitter go strictly by CDAS and don't know it's susceptible to these errors.

Raw values > Satellite estimates.

[Kingarabian]

Unless LongPaddock decide to user different pressures, we should see a negative drop today. Should be negative for the rest of the week. This will allow the trades to weaken and potentially setup a WWB for June.

It came in at 2.47 today

Yeah they went with a full millibar lower at Darwin despite the airport average being higher but had the same SLP that I calculated at Tahiti. Not going to question their numbers of course. A negative today for sure though.

[Ntxw]

It wouldn't be the first time satellite estimates are off for ENSO. I usually accept the weekly updates by measurements of the buoys, assuming they are not defective which from time to time can happen. In this case the satellites are likely in error.

[Kingarabian]

It wouldn't be the first time satellite estimates are off for ENSO. I usually accept the weekly updates by measurements of the buoys, assuming they are not defective which from time to time can happen. In this case the satellites are likely in error.

The Buoys @ 100W seem to have been broken for some time.

[Kingarabian]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/866734426067259392

[WeatherEmperor]

Here are 2 images from the 18th and 22nd of May. Notice 1+2 cooling ever so ever so slightly. Does this use satellite estimates too just like CDAS? How accurate are these??






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