vbhoutex wrote:Been looking at both satellite loops and surface obs for a good while today. What I am seeing in the sat loops is a drift SW of the entire system-not sure where NHC is finding the NW component unless it is something they expect later on. Saw several outflow boundaries thrown out on both the NW and Se sides of this. If there is any type of circulation out there attm it is at the mid levels. Low level flow is still obviously offshore to me towards the SW.
The bouys and reporting stations in the area also indicate the SW drift of this system with their winds and how they are changing. I found no pressure falls, which isn't that unusual at this time of day, but I do not see any indication that this has made it down to the surface as more than a broad low pressure trof as NHC said.
It will have to persist for at least another 24-36 hours with good convection if it wants to have a chance to develop further, imo. I certainly won't rule it out because we have seen it happen in the past, but attm I don't see a lot of promise in this one.
I wonder if this would pull a Danny of 1997.Its funny its in the same locale too.
