Models Develop a Disturbance Near Florida (Is invest 90L)

[NDG]

At 00z

[wxman57]

wxman,
I always respect your opinion. Do you think this will be a flood event in the general sense for SE Florida?

For now, it looks like the heavier rain will be east of you, offshore as the low develops. with cold (cool) air advecting southward west of the low center, that could lessen rainfall amounts across the FL peninsula west of the center.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
The non-tropical low is now over Central Cuba.
Since there is nothing else to track...I track this ULL or MLL
whatever it is LOL.

[tailgater]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 1041 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

14.12 GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE IN SOMEWHAT CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH MASS FIELD EVOLUTION OF A LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN GLFMEX BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWERING CONFIDENCE MATERIALIZES IN THE MASS FIELDS BY LATE TUE AS SPAGHETTI PLOTS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WED/THU. IN RESPONSE TO THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SPECTRAL MODELS ARE FORMING A CLOSED SFC LOW ANYWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL TAKE ON CHARACTERISTICS OF A HYBRID /SUB-TROPICAL ENTITY. WITH THE SPREAD...THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW. IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL BE OVER THE SE U.S INTO WED/THU. DUE TO THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT NATURE OF HOW THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION UNFOLDS...WILL LEAVE THE EXTENDED RANGE GRIDDED FORECASTS WE RECEIVED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...IN TACT. /10

[NDG]

Interesting how the gfs during the day today has been trending more and more westward with this potential forming hybrid/subtropical feature. But I am sure it will keep flip flopping for the next couple of days.

[Ivanhater]

00z keeps it hanging around all Memorial Day weekend...I will not be happy...

[HURAKAN]

[ronjon]

Looks like a rather deep trough will be setting up in the eastern GOM early next week which will likely spawn some sort of low pressure system. Initially cold core but may transition to a hybrid system with time - especially if it stays over the GOM or straits. ECM much slower and further south than CMC and GFS. Set up looks to bring an extended period of potentially heavy rain to the FL peninsula - a nice start to end our 3 year drought.

From NWS Tampa Bay AFD:

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN HANDLED FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY BY THE MODELS...WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STRENGTH. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM CUBA NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OR
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW. STILL...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST...A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...AND SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH...IT IS LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS will wake up those in the GOM, something large heads towards LA, but its 240 hours out now. The 00Z run is much different than this run. It makes you wonder now what the GFS is seeing and how accurate these runs are:

[Wx_Warrior]

Something large and the gulf waters are what, 80 deg now?

[gatorcane]

Euro has a much different idea than the GFS:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9051500!!/

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters says,anything will develop.

An early season Atlantic named storm looking less likely


Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:46 PM GMT on May 15, 2009

The possibility of a May subtropical storm forming near Florida next week now appear dim, according to the latest suite of runs by the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF global dynamical computer models. Yesterday's runs indicated that a small area of low shear air might develop over Florida next week, between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to the south. However, the latest set of runs are showing a much reduced area of low shear, too small for a subtropical storm to form. Perhaps a better chance for a subtropical storm to form is in the mid-Atlantic a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. There, a large upper-level cold low has cut off from the jet stream, and it may spin in place long enough over the next week to develop a warm core and be classified as Subtropical Storm Ana. It is unlikely that a subtropical storm forming that far out in the Atlantic this early in the year would pose a threat to any land areas, with the possible exception of Bermuda.

[Vortex]

I respect Jeff but his change in tune is as close to night and day. While, he very well may me right the flopping of model consensus regarding shear should be ingested for another day or so before such a change to his tune.

[rockyman]

James Spann (ABC33/40 in Bham) talks about this potential system in his morning video blog:

http://www.alabamawx.com

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS run is following on the heals of the 06Z run, with a pretty impressive system in the Central GOM for May heading WNW to NW under a ridge...and only 120 hours out. The difference with the 06Z and 12Z, is that the 12Z develops it much quicker and in the short-term.

Folks that live along the GOM, take note.



Here we are at 240 hours, WGOM:

[Vortex]

12Z CMC brings quite a system into southern florida before a bend to the west.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Ed Mahmoud]

At GFS hour 180:

Still looks cold core aloft based on 250 mb heights/winds, but shear doesn't look prohibitive:

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather.

[Derek Ortt]

yeah, that impressive 1008mb depression

[Vortex]

12Z UKMET on board

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation