Strong tropical wave ssw of Cape Verde islands

[cycloneye]

Conditions are favorable in that area.

[KWT]

Yeah this one could well be a TD before 25W if it keeps this presentation up, very impressive, most of the convection is on the southern side.

The remains of Danny relaly should create enough of a weakness to lift this up quite a bit, the only way this stays south is if it dies pretty much and stays as a weak wave.

[littlevince]

Visible loop

(Big file 3,5Mb)

[HURAKAN]

Visible loop

(Big file 3,5Mb)

Thanks. It looks great. I think it's well on its way to depression status. Give it a few more days and we could have Erika before August is out.

[Dean4Storms]

Dang, this wave is popping fast. Let us hope that the HP ridge does not build.

[KWT]

Yeah it looks pretty decent there Hurakan, sure does look like a developing system.

[cycloneye]

The trend has been for NHC to have invests up for systems as soon is code orange.So not yet 94L for this.

[Sanibel]

This one has CV hurricane written all over it. It's all a matter of where it goes.

[StormClouds63]

I often get fooled by this impressive waves just off the west coast of Africa ... however, this one seems to have held together, and its size is already impressive. We'll see. I have no idea where the position of the Bermuda High will be in several days. The trend has been re-curvature, but it's too early to know.

[cycloneye]

Impressive

[Ivanhater]

12 z Euro sort of develops this wave, the most important thing about this run is it builds the ridge in tandem with the progress of this system..


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[KWT]

Yeah it is looking pretty impressive I have to admit, long way to track this one it seems.

As for the ECM, whilst the ridge is strengthening by that point it seems to be somewhat too far north to be a real threat to the US, its even further north then Bill was at that point.

[Sanibel]

The timing of this one is right in the slot for peak season.

[otowntiger]

Yeah it is looking pretty impressive I have to admit, long way to track this one it seems.

As for the ECM, whilst the ridge is strengthening by that point it seems to be somewhat too far north to be a real threat to the US, its even further north then Bill was at that point.

I agree KWT. That's what I"m seeing. Unless that high is extremely strong I don't see how a CV tracker at that lattitude can be forced so far west without going fishing. It would certainly be an anomaly if it did threaten the CONUS after getting so far north.

[Ivanhater]

Long-term Synopsis for Wed Aug 26th

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 09 2009

DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION.

[cycloneye]

This image loop is small in size but you can see how this wave is organizing.

[Bocadude85]

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Yeah it is looking pretty impressive I have to admit, long way to track this one it seems.

As for the ECM, whilst the ridge is strengthening by that point it seems to be somewhat too far north to be a real threat to the US, its even further north then Bill was at that point.

I agree KWT. That's what I"m seeing. Unless that high is extremely strong I don't see how a CV tracker at that lattitude can be forced so far west without going fishing. It would certainly be an anomaly if it did threaten the CONUS after getting so far north.

The thing to look at is the ridge building in. Many storms have developed at this lattitude and made it all the way across.

[KWT]

Convection seems to be developing very well right now, looks like a probable developer IMO.

Will still be interesting to see where this ends up but I think a recurve is odds on...still the Bermuda high does strengthen around 6-7 days time, maybe just too late to steer this one westward enough but it may be close.

Who said the cape verde season is weak, this may be our 3rd storm from this region and we are not even half way through Cape Verde season.

[gboudx]

It's code yellow.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON NEWLY-FORMED
TROPICAL STORM DANNY...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN
THE BAHAMAS.

1. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[GeneratorPower]

Long-term Synopsis for Wed Aug 26th

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR SEP 03 - 09 2009

DURING WEEK TWO, THE GFS AND CANADIAN BASED ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST TROUGHS
OVER WESTERN ALASKA, ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS PREDICTED FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE CONUS. A WEAKNESS IN THIS
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST FOR THE GULF COAST REGION.

That could be trouble.