BOC system

[KWT]

Interesting Ronjon, yeah the 12z GFS does weakly develop something because as Ivanhater said there is enough of a weakness to drag the system north-west enough to keep it close to water. Funnily enough the 12z NAM has the low in pretty much the same place...

[Ivanhater]

HPC day 3

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO = nada.

Does have a wave or two from the ATL but nothing comes of it.

[KWT]

Until the ECM shows something I'm not going to get my expectations up for this region but at least there is some convection down there and the HPC does suggest something might develop down there and they obviously take time to look thorugh the models and make what they believe is the right call...

We shall see, odds no more then 5-10% IMO anything develops from this.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro

[KWT]

Ah so the ECM does at least keep the low semi-closed for its run, thats very interesting thing to see indeed, so whilst I wouldn't describe the ECM as being onboard, it does sort of buy the ticket for the train...

[Ivanhater]

18z NAM really likes it

[KWT]

Then again the NAM might just be even more over the top in developing systems than the CMC!

If anything does develop it'll probably be another fairly southerly system, probably close to where the ECM takes it.

[Ivanhater]

GFS Ensemble

[KWT]

A weak low that is probably going to head inland, but still the ensembles showing something is another interesting step.

Convection weakening somewhat near where any weak eddy is right now, but there is convection developing a little further north now.

[Weatherfreak000]

KWT, you don't need to remind everyone this probably will not develop, we already know. No offense to you.


Anyway,




Notice the TW entering the Caribbean here? Well check out latest satellite loops. Vorticity is present in the area models are forecasting. I believe the players are coming into focus here. It has been 72 hours on the forecast of the models and the Tropical Wave that should amplify the lower pressure is present.

As of now, considering the vorticity is highest at about 80W 15N I would say if it can get going in that area like all the invests before it we could definitely see this develop.


Edit: The vorticity associated with the wave on the TWO is RATHER impressive. I can definitely see potential there too. CMC being the best long range model out there seeing this developing in the Florida Straits is a pretty dramatic pattern for late July as the high pressure could push this into the GOM.

[KWT]

That tropical wave may well help to enhance this region, right now its just a classic deep Caribbean region of convection. We've seen several times before a tropical wave entering this area and providing a spark.

I wouldn't rule it out of course for possibly weak development, I just personally can't see it reaching TC status, but I'm far from a weather god sadly, which is a shame

[Ivanhater]

18z Para GFS says Bonnie

[Ivanhater]

[Nimbus]

The ULL over the Bahamas is continuing to move west and that may provide an outflow path if anything develops. Looks like that may be helping an anticyclone build over the southwestern Caribbean as well. Interesting to see if the NHC starts talking it up in the advisories.

[Ivanhater]

Getting stronger

[Ivanhater]

[Scorpion]

Carbon copy of Alex

[Cyclone1]

Fun fact: Every storm we have from now on is going to take that path.*

*apparently.

[KWT]

Quite an easy call track wise if this one does get going, I'm not even sure it'll end up getting into the BoC like the models expect but if it does I can see some development in there.

Certainly has been a westerly start to the season...

GFS is interesting though for sure!