NW Carribean / Southern GOM / BOC (Is invest 96L)

[wxman57]

Shear is 40kts and increasing across the central Gulf:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[tailgater]

I see 1 small area of 40kt wind that is increasing but the area @ 200 miles west of Key West is under much lighter shear as it moves off to the east or ENE. Lots of covergence, divergence and some 850 mb vorticity. Maybe something to watch.

[Aric Dunn]

I see 1 small area of 40kt wind that is increasing but the area @ 200 miles west of Key West is under much lighter shear as it moves off to the east or ENE. Lots of covergence, divergence and some 850 mb vorticity. Maybe something to watch.

[img]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF[/ig]

the other thing is the BOC and the low south of that 40k streak is about 20kt lower than yesterday

[northjaxpro]

We may see a possibility of something brewing in the GOM, the Bay of Campeche and the NW Caribbean within the next week or so. Wind shear is just too strong across this region right now and the models really are not forecasting any significant drop in shear values until late this upcoming weekend into early next week. I'm inclined to think things should become at least marginally favorable for tropical cyclone development around June 15 or so.

[tailgater]

24 hr shear forecast


48 hr


Shear forecast are tricky from what I've heard, but I do think chances are very slim, but hey how many June systems aren't sheared?


this Buoy just had a gust of almost 39 kts.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

[Aric Dunn]

well shear continues to drop over the western area near the BOC. down to 10 to 20kts. which is marginal. but that area seems to be losing its convection pretty quick.

[thundercam96]

For The Next System That The GFS Points Out, What Is The Sheer Forcast For That Time Period ( June 18- 23)

[northjaxpro]

Aric, that MCS that moved through the Lower Rio Grande Valley last night and off shore into the BOC faded very fast today.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, that MCS that moved through the Lower Rio Grande Valley last night and off shore into the BOC faded very fast today.

yes it did. this morning it was there now dead.

[Aric Dunn]

not that it means much but that mid level circ has almost moved right on top of that weak surface low.
again does not mean much if the dynamic are not there but... that area is sitting over 86 degree sst's !!

[tailgater]

NAM shows no real development but a good bit of rain for SE Texas and most of the Northern gulf coast.
http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/eta45hr_sfc_prcp.gif

[cycloneye]

I know there is a bit of time for something to start showing some signs of organization in the BOC, but after seeing the models in the past few days,I thought it would be needed a thread for the Bay of Campeche as it may be the focal area as what may be left of Carlotta may be one of the contributors for any development in the next few days (If it occurs at all) as it swings into that body of water. To aliviate the traffic to the models thread from now on, any model run that shows something in the BOC and discussions by the NWS offices from Texas/Louisiana can be posted here. If nothing happens in the BOC after all, that is what this Talking Tropics forum is about, to discuss tropical weather.

[Rgv20]

Corpus afternoon discussion.

BY THURSDAY PWS
ARE FCST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES OVER THE MARINE AND
IMMEDIATE COAST. MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES FURTHER NEXT WEEK
FRIDAY AS MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES SHOW SFC TROF FEATURE MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM MIDWEEK TO THE END OF THE WEEK.

Brownsville afternoon discussion.

THURSDAY A WEAK SHEAR ZONE/TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE EAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE DUE EASTERLY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PWAT NUMBERS ALSO MOVE CLOSER
TO 2.00 INCHES AS WE ENTER WHAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE A MORE
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT OVERALL. CONTINUED CHANCE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS WELL. GFS/ECMWF DEVELOP AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY DAY 7 THAT FURTHER
ENHANCES SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FEATURE AND THE EXACT PLACEMENT/NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...IT
IS ALSO FAR TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ITS FUTURE. /68/

[cycloneye]

From this afternoon's HPC discussion:

CURRENT MJO IN PHASE 8 ENTERING PHASE 1 CONTINUES SHOWING
FAVORABLE VELOCITY POTENTAIL ANOMALIES AND H200 AND H850 OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC/ CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WRN
CARRIBEAN/GLFMEX. BROAD SCALE ANOMALOUS H850 WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
TROPICAL EPAC SUPPORTS BROAD SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AIDING IN
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY EPAC AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT WRN CARIB AND LOWER GLFMEX. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING VARIOUS FORMS OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH THE EPAC AND
WRN CARIB/LOWER GLFMEX BASINS AND EXPECT THAT SOME FORM OF
TROPICAL DVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR OR BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE PERIOD AND
THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

ROSENSTEIN

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdepd

[Rgv20]

Houston Afternoon discussion

THE
GFS SOLUTION STILL DEVELOPS A LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION /WEAK SFC
LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM AROUND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
...CLOSED-OFF UPPER LOW BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF ALSO PICKS UP
ON THESE LOWER SFC PRESSURES AND...ALBEIT MORE BROAD AND WEAK...DOES
MOVE THIS FEATURE UP THE MEXICO COAST THROUGH DAY 10. FWIW...THE
NOGAPS ALSO DEVELOPS A SFC LOW IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT
HR 144. ALL OF THIS TRANSLATES TO AN EARLY WEEK SOUTHEAST-TRANSITIONING
-TO-EASTERLY FETCH THAT WILL PUMP IN GULF MOISTURE INTO AN ALREADY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF THESE SOLUTIONS GAIN MORE CONSISTENCY IN
THE COMING DAYS THEN EXPECT A BAY OF CAMPECHE/SW GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM
WITHIN A WEEK AND HEIGHTENED SE TX RAIN/ISO STORM PROBABILITIES.
31

[somethingfunny]

FWD actually discusses another, earlier scenario:

THE UPPER LOW WHICH HELPED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEVERE
STORMS YESTERDAY WILL BECOME TRAPPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS LOW MAY MEANDER
WEST SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND WILL INTRODUCE 20 POPS
FOR THIS TIME FRAME. ANOTHER SLOW-MOVING TROUGH NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WEST AND MERGE WITH THIS LOW. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE GFS/NAM THAT THIS LOW WILL TRANSITION
INTO A WARM CORE LOW...WITH THE NAM EVEN CLOSING OFF A LOW AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE GULF SUNDAY BUT THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OUT
THERE AS A SOLUTION. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/SREF ALL WEAKEN THE TROUGH
AND KEEP A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES. NO MATTER WHAT SOLUTION ULTIMATELY
VERIFIES...THINK DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

HPC day seven graphic.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

Day 8 on 18z GFS. Ridge doesn't allow it to go more north and that is why is Mexico bound.

[bilhhh]

What is going on to make met say that? Don't see any clue hereon.

[cycloneye]

What is going on to make met say that? Don't see any clue hereon.

I think what you are trying to say is that there is nothing right now in the Bay of Campeche. All the talk about the models is because many of them have some sort of low pressure in the BOC after 7 days (Some develop but others only have weak low) Let's see what happens as the runs of the models go ahead and how is the pattern shaping up in the area.