Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles

[Sanibel]

It's exiting now. We'll see if it still has anything.

[cycloneye]

Decreased to 10%.


A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal
shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for development of this system during the next several
days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

[Sanibel]

Looks like a bust. There's more to that wave to the west than this thing. Fooled by another land-cane. Unless of course that wave is part of this pouch.

[galaxy401]

Interesting they said that conditions might be conductive yesterday and now suddenly conditions will remain unfavorable. The dry air is holding its dominance in the Atlantic.

[tropicwatch]

Its been worse:

[Hurricaneman]

I looked at the GFS and if you follow the vorticity it seems to break into 2 pieces east of the lesser antilles with one piece developing in the BOC at day 13 and the othe piece does almost nothing so based on how the GFS does I wouldn't believe it until other models come aboard but its something to watch for next week

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[BigA]

Conditions in the MDR have definitely been worse, as seen in the graph of tropical Atlantic stability anomalies. (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html) The stability anomaly is less negative than it's been any time since February!

That said, given the complete collapse of model support, I think development is a long shot, certainly in the short to medium term. May have a better chance when it gets farther west.

[cycloneye]

No more mention. (For now)

[gatorcane]

Good blowup of convection, let's see if it persists. Also the wave out in front (to the left on this loop) is flaring up. Link below:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Sanibel]

There might still be some spin to it.

[cycloneye]

Maybe a merge with the wave in front?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Hammy]

Maybe a merge with the wave in front?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Definitely looks like a westward surge in convective development.

[gatorcane]

models not too enthusiastic any longer but convection is firing off nicely tonight and like folks have mentioned, the two waves may merge. Something to watch since we are closing in on the climatological peak of the Atlantic hurricane season which is Sept 10th.

[gatorcane]

Saved image, that is some of the deepest convection I have seen of any wave in the Eastern Atlantic so far this season. You can see the very cold cloud tops and it appears this burst is expanding. I am curious what the 00Z models do with this area as we may see some showing some gradual development again. Wouldn't surprise me if this area becomes an invest sometime in the next few days:

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS sees this as a Texas landfall, but its 16 days out so way too far out to know whats going to happen but one thing is if you look at the GFS fully, it almost does the same thing as 99L except a little farther east

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Frank2]

I'd keep an eye on the wave - we'll see...

[abajan]

Certainly seems like it bears watching. Nice blowup of convection for sure.

[cycloneye]

NHC didn't mention this wave at 8 AM TWO maybe waiting for persistance of the convection but so far it has maintained for the past 12 hours.

[gatorcane]

NHC didn't mention this wave at 8 AM TWO maybe waiting for persistance of the convection but so far it has maintained for the past 12 hours.

The models didn't show anything coming out of this again in the overnight runs (and why the NHC didn't mark this area in the Outlook as they seem to rely heavily on the models), but putting the models aside, the area certainly has maintained deep convection throughout the night.

Not sure why the global models are so lackluster on this as conditions look on the favorable side for this wave from what I can see. Needs to be watched IMHO.

Saved image:

[Siker]

It's certainly far south enough to be logical for the islands to keep an eye on. Not much in the way of 850mb vorticity but we'll see how it evolves: