Possible weak development east of FL this week? (Is 92L)

[Stormcenter]

Something else will spin up in GOM before all is said and done this season. IMO

[StarmanHDB]

Something else will spin up in GOM before all is said and done this season. IMO

Hopefully this doesn't happen, but I have a feeling that we will face a Wilma-type set up within the next month and a half....a SW Caribbean genesis with a north-northwest track taking it near the Yucatan Peninsula, then swept across the GOM into Southern Florida by a deep frontal system. I just hope that we don't get a Wilma-type bomb!

Yeah, that would be a bad thing!

[alienstorm]

Looks to me like the area to watch is just north of the Turks and Caicos Islands.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah. I agree. Don't think much will come of it given it is still partially upper level. NAM showed a closed 250 mb contour over it through at least day 4.

By Sunday morning, EC has a weak
low (1013mb) near 25N/85W just about stationary. Cold front is approaching from the west. That should pick it up and take it back across Florida late this weekend. Chances of a significant TC are low.

[wxman57]

I'm thinking by the start of next season we'll be saying "nearly 10 years without a Cat 3 or greater US hurricane impact". The second half of this season may be less active than the first.

[jlauderdal]

I'm thinking by the start of next season we'll be saying "nearly 10 years without a Cat 3 or greater US hurricane impact". The second half of this season may be less active than the first.

yes, there is no reason to think the season is going to all of a sudden get going

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well maybe a slight chance of some development this weekend:

ong term /Friday through Monday/...
NHC is monitoring a flare-up of thunderstorms associated with weak
surface trough. This feature may move across South Florida Friday into
the weekend. NHC is given the system a slight chance of
development.

As with any potential tropical system...there is a great deal of
uncertainty in its evolution and thus late week/weekend forecast
for South Florida. Regardless of any developing...deep moisture
will continue over the region through at least Sunday...keeping
rain chances high.

[gatorcane]

850MB vorticity chart below, still showing something there:

[poof121]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. An area of showers and thunderstorms just east of the central and
southeastern Bahamas is associated with a weak surface trough of low
pressure. Slow development of this system is possible during the
next few days as it moves west-northwestward or westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, saw the NWS discussion and still monitoring the models on this potential area of disturbed weather. Still need much more persistent, deep convection and reports of falling surface pressures to get too excited. But it is a dull season so I guess having something to watch is better than nothing!

[floridasun78]

Well maybe a slight chance of some development this weekend:

ong term /Friday through Monday/...
NHC is monitoring a flare-up of thunderstorms associated with weak
surface trough. This feature may move across South Florida Friday into
the weekend. NHC is given the system a slight chance of
development.

As with any potential tropical system...there is a great deal of
uncertainty in its evolution and thus late week/weekend forecast
for South Florida. Regardless of any developing...deep moisture
will continue over the region through at least Sunday...keeping
rain chances high.

that miami Area Forecast Discussion ??? i saw it please let know were from ty

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

In order for this to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone, it will need to produce sustained, deep convection (which will warm the upper atmosphere through latent heat release and dissipate the upper-level low) and develop a mid-level vortex that can work down to the lower levels to lower surface pressures. This process takes a long time, usually several days.

Florida will be in for locally heavy rainfall regardless.

[gatorcane]

We are approaching DMIN so the decreasing convection is not a surprise. It could easily flare up again tonight though as we approach DMAX...will be watching for that.

[jlauderdal]

Well maybe a slight chance of some development this weekend:

ong term /Friday through Monday/...
NHC is monitoring a flare-up of thunderstorms associated with weak
surface trough. This feature may move across South Florida Friday into
the weekend. NHC is given the system a slight chance of
development.

As with any potential tropical system...there is a great deal of
uncertainty in its evolution and thus late week/weekend forecast
for South Florida. Regardless of any developing...deep moisture
will continue over the region through at least Sunday...keeping
rain chances high.

that miami Area Forecast Discussion ??? i saw it please let know were from ty

http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/

[floridasun78]

i see area nw carribbean let see that be part system

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF showing the low over SE Florida in 72 hours heading WSW towards the SE Gulf:

[gatorcane]

deepest convection + the high vorticity seems to be located just NE of Mayaquana in the Turks and Caicos (southeastern-most island). That's somewhat SE of where the NHC has the X in their outlook graphic.

If something tries to get going here, would have more time over water before potentially impacting Florida.

Saved image:

[Nimbus]

If there is a buoy in the area you can watch the surface pressure yo yo up and down till it reaches 1010 or 1012 Mb's.
Convection usually becomes persistent enough to make a call at that point.

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing it up by NHC's mark. Could be a homebrewer coming together here. Good curvature up there.

[HURRICANELONNY]

If NHC put an x on the map. Why is it not an invest?