Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Hurricaneman]

I'm going to say this, the magic number for this thing coming together is between 40 and 50W going by models

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[WeatherEmperor]

Model consensus growing. 00z Canadian is onboard...but much much slower than Gfs. Has a TS approaching the lesser antilles at 228 hrs heading due west into the Caribbean sea at low latitude.




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[USTropics]

00z CMC has quite a bit more land interaction, that's actually P39L emerging off the coast of Columbia at 228 hours (10N 75W) and a different system approaching the Leewards:

[cycloneye]

Nobody posted the 00z Euro? It has something interesting just south of PR at end of run.

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[cycloneye]

06z GFS after skirting the Venezuelan coast thru Caracas,it moves to water and goes boom south of Jamaica and then thru Yucatan Channel.

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS has landfall exactly where Hermine made landfall as a major

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Blown Away]

Nobody posted the 00z Euro? It has something interesting just south of PR at end of run.
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06z GFS at 240 hours... Think it's same system as Euro, just Euro is more north.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... 372 hours... Major just before landfall just east of Appalachicola or same location as Hermine...

[gatorcane]

For the sake of those in the Caribbean and possibly Gulf/Florida, hope the GFS is wrong. Looking at the GFS and ECMWF, if you split the difference, it would put this system through the Caribbean between South America and Hispaniola.

[cycloneye]

Blown Away and Euro is more slow than GFS with the same wave.

[cajungal]

Kind of reminds me of hurricane Lili. Same time frame too. If it even verifies and anything forms at all. The way this season has been going I have my doubts.

[Blown Away]

Seems this wave will track so low that it will likely not recurve before the islands which means if it does develop it will likely impact land somewhere for sure... I'm predicting this system will be the 2016 Storm2k winner for most posts...

[cycloneye]

Seems this wave will track so low that it will likely not recurve before the islands which means if it does develop it will likely impact land somewhere for sure... I'm predicting this system will be the 2016 Storm2k winner for most posts...

More than the 9,356 posts than the main discussion thread of Hermine had? By the way,that thread had an unprecedent number of views (845493) And it not include the Hermine models thread that had over 3,000 posts.

[Blown Away]

Seems this wave will track so low that it will likely not recurve before the islands which means if it does develop it will likely impact land somewhere for sure... I'm predicting this system will be the 2016 Storm2k winner for most posts...

More than the 9,356 posts than the main discussion thread of Hermine had? By the way,that thread had an unprecedent number of views (845493) And it not include the Hermine models thread that had over 3,000 posts.

WOW, 845,493 views, that's incredible... How does Storm2k get more of those folks to post?? That's really amazing, I see a handful of people posting and didn't realize so may just view...

Back on topic...

[abajan]

00z CMC has quite a bit more land interaction, that's actually P39L emerging off the coast of Columbia at 228 hours (10N 75W) and a different system approaching the Leewards:

http://i.imgur.com/dyC5oe7.png

Those are the Windward Islands to the west of that other system. The southern islands, from Grenada to Dominica, are the Windwards. The Leewards are all the islands in the archipelago to the east of Puerto Rico, down to Guadalupe (including Marie-Galante which is part of Guadalupe). Neither Trinidad & Tobago nor Barbados are considered to be part of either group. The Leeward Antilles are all those islands along the northern coast of Venezuela from Aruba to Margarita. All of the aforementioned islands, including Trinidad & Tobago and Barbados, are the Lesser Antilles (also known as the Caibbees).

But it gets more complicated, because Dominica is sometimes considered to be part of the Leewards, not Windwards, and Barbados is sometimes considered to be completely surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean while at other times the water along its west coast is thought to be part of the Caribbean Sea. Moreover, in Spanish, French and Dutch, all of the Lesser Antilles except the Leeward Antilles are called the Windward Islands and the Leeward Antilles are called the Leeward Islands!

Even though I've lived in Barbados all my life, only within the last few years did I learn about some of the foregoing.

[jlauderdal]

For the sake of those in the Caribbean and possibly Gulf/Florida, hope the GFS is wrong. Looking at the GFS and ECMWF, if you split the difference, it would put this system through the Caribbean between South America and Hispaniola.

we will take our chances in sofla with the gfs..anything beyond 72h

[SFLcane]

Careful not to get burned by 300+HR GFS. The way the models have been this season I'd be cautious of any solution Let alone 300 hrs. Example Karl um yea still waiting for those favorable conditions.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well this developing disturbance has a long way, really long way to go, before it's a hurricane in the central GOM. As we have seen in the synoptic patterns all year, this year is just not the same as recent years. However, the trend is building across the model ensembles such that this looks to be the one to watch. Might go and look at the storm analogs and see just how many "southern riders" have made this modeled route in early Oct when I get a minute. One thing that kind of stands out are the vigorous LLC's we have seen persist despite any convection and high shear (like 92L). If we do get a really well defined LLC over water and it tracks below 20 deg, it could be troublesome. I do think that once it gets near either the Windward or Leeward islands the track uncertainty is really high and the intensity is so variable it's not worth discussing much.

[WeatherEmperor]

Careful not to get burned by 300+HR GFS. The way the models have been this season I'd be cautious of any solution Let alone 300 hrs. Example Karl um yea still waiting for those favorable conditions.

+1 on this. Even Lixion Avila hinted at the NHC's disappointment with the models performance in regards to Karl in their 5am discussion. In terms of development for this wave, I'll believe it when I see it.

[centuryv58]

For the sake of those in the Caribbean and possibly Gulf/Florida, hope the GFS is wrong. Looking at the GFS and ECMWF, if you split the difference, it would put this system through the Caribbean between South America and Hispaniola.

Your advice makes the most sense so far, Thanks for the updates.