Western Caribbean Area of Interest: (Is INVEST 90L)

[Alyono]

MUCH weaker so far. Not even a closed low any longer on the GFS

Canadian still has the EPAC TC with now only a disorganized low that is too weak to be classified in the Gulf

12Z models coming in weaker. Even ICON was slightly weaker

The GFS was likely overdoing it (as usual) and is now playing catchup. Wouldn't be surprised if in the end this doesn't even get classified a TC.

the most likely scenario has always been no TC out of this. More likely, either moisture or an extratropical low

Maybe a 1 in 4 chance of a TC or STC at this time

[Hypercane_Kyle]

TD/weak-TS mostly likely outcome, IMO. Windshear and land interaction will keep it down; however rain will be a huge issue for FL as it has been a deluge the last few weeks.

[Bocadude85]

TD/weak-TS mostly likely outcome, IMO. Windshear and land interaction will keep it down; however rain will be a huge issue for FL as it has been a deluge the last few weeks.

Flooding and a severe weather threat are what these early season tropical disturbances usually bring with them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 35kt TS out of this.

[Patrick99]

Climo says west. I've seen this a 100 times. By the time we get within 96 hrs. Whatever forms. Models will trend west. Just my opinion of what models trend as we get closer in hours.

Keep in mind that there isn't a whole lot of May 21-31 genesis climo to go by here - only five systems of at least TS strength are known to have formed in the WCARIB and SE GOMEX (between 13-23N and 80-88W) during that 10 day period since 1851. So most (if not all) of your '100 times' fell much later in the season, when climatological tracks do go farther west.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/may_21_31.png

The models are definitely detecting some kind of pattern that would turn the system NNE or NE once in the NW Caribbean. For example, the latest 06Z GEFS animation from hours 78 to 192 shows this well, but, we are still far enough out that I agree they can shift back into the Gulf:

If I didn't know any better, looking at that setup and track, I would think we were in mid-October/November.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensemble mean has a bullseye over South Florida at 156 hours. Whatever comes of this, looks like the potential for some more significant rainfall on already saturated grounds across Florida, not to mention potentially dampening Memorial Day Weekend plans.

[SFLcane]

MUCH weaker so far. Not even a closed low any longer on the GFS

Canadian still has the EPAC TC with now only a disorganized low that is too weak to be classified in the Gulf

12Z models coming in weaker. Even ICON was slightly weaker

The GFS was likely overdoing it (as usual) and is now playing catchup. Wouldn't be surprised if in the end this doesn't even get classified a TC.

the most likely scenario has always been no TC out of this. More likely, either moisture or an extratropical low

Maybe a 1 in 4 chance of a TC or STC at this time

Why cause one cycle coming in weak? Things could change on 18z. We in Florida don’t need a named storm for problems with heavy rainfall. Still waiting on the euro

[PSUHiker31]

I would like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that last year the GFS would frequently latch onto something in the extended medium range and long range only to drop it in the majority of the medium range until 48-72 hours prior to development. Especially in situations like this.

It's best to stick to the consistency of the Euro.

[Alyono]

The GFS was likely overdoing it (as usual) and is now playing catchup. Wouldn't be surprised if in the end this doesn't even get classified a TC.

the most likely scenario has always been no TC out of this. More likely, either moisture or an extratropical low

Maybe a 1 in 4 chance of a TC or STC at this time

Why cause one cycle coming in weak? Things could change on 18z. We in Florida don’t need a named storm for problems with heavy rainfall. Still waiting on the euro

that's all I ever gave this system is developing

[CyclonicFury]

I would not be surprised if we see a poorly organized system that gets a name anyway. Usually these gyre systems have TS winds even if they are very poorly organized.

[LarryWx]

I have yet to be in the likely to develop camp nor in the hurricane camp (both based on climo), but I did go into the "increasing threat of a TS to FL" camp yesterday when I noted the near unanimous ageement of the models for a tropical low to form in the NW Caribbean near day 7 (5/24). If anything, today that TS threat has fallen back some but there still is a low (more than minute) chance imo. I'm near 5% for a FL TS hit currently. Weak model progs along with climo and knowing that the Gulf has recently not been all that warm are keeping it down as there's a much greater chance that there will either be something weaker than TS, maybe even nothing organized, or maybe even a miss of FL.

Climo to keep in mind: There have been only 5 TS and no H on record to form in the W. Car. or GOM during 5/21-31 since 1851. So, that's only 5 in 167 years or 1 in 33 chance/3% of there even being a genesis. Only 1 of those 5 hit FL. So, only 1 in 167 years had a FL TS hit or well under 1%. So, even going with a 5% chance of a FL hit in 2018 in deference to the model consensus of a threat of something is WAY, WAY above the longterm climo based chance.

The 5 W Car/GOM 5/21-31 geneses on record since 1851:

- 5/30/2008
- 5/28/1959: hit LA at 40 knots
- 5/25/1953: hit FL at 40 knots
- 5/27/1890
- 5/29/1865

[Dylan]

So storm cancel?

Y’all are funny. We all know that the models have a terrible time handling tropical cyclones before they even develop, especially when its of this type of genesis (CAG). The GFS and it’s ensembles are still all over it, along with the latest European. It would be ridiculous to expect anything more than a disorganized tropical storm. I wouldn’t put too much stock on one model run with a storm that might exist in a week from now. My thoughts from yesterday remain the same.

[Bocadude85]

12z Euro has a decent TS going into the Eastern Florida panhandle

[Florida1118]

Euro at 216:

[LarryWx]

Be careful even with the Euro as it, too, has had a history of being too strong at times once it has a TC genesis, especially north of 25N. Even going from 1004 mb at hour 192 to 997 mb near Apalachicola a day later with cool GOM there looks questionable to me for May 27th though I fully realize it probably is already weakening then from an even lower modeled SLP between hour 192 and hour 216.

[cycloneye]

There seems to be a general consensus on this among the main models in terms of something forming regardless of in what form of intensity it will turn out to be and what track it takes. However,there is still some days ahead for all of this to change.

[stormlover2013]

yeah still over a week away

[LarryWx]

yeah still over a week away

That's the key. We're still talking about something that is about 8-9 days out even if it something, and moreover, this would be in late May, when only 1 in 167 years has had a FL TS hit from the NW Caribbean or Gulf. Assuming that one knows 167 years of late May climo, to go any higher than, say, a 10% chance for a FL TS hit as of now would be crazy imo. I'm sticking to a 5% chance, which itself is 8 times the longterm climo based chance of 0.6%.

If, say, there were already a TC in the W Caribbean and if, say, the models were unanimously showing a TS hit on FL in 3 days, I might then go with a FL TS hit being likely despite only 1 in 167 years having had that kind of hit. But right now with it being modeled ~8 days out and still nothing close to a TC yet, no way I'd go anywhere close to likely!

[ronjon]

I have yet to be in the likely to develop camp nor in the hurricane camp (both based on climo), but I did go into the "increasing threat of a TS to FL" camp yesterday when I noted the near unanimous ageement of the models for a tropical low to form in the NW Caribbean near day 7 (5/24). If anything, today that TS threat has fallen back some but there still is a low (more than minute) chance imo. I'm near 5% for a FL TS hit currently. Weak model progs along with climo and knowing that the Gulf has recently not been all that warm are keeping it down as there's a much greater chance that there will either be something weaker than TS, maybe even nothing organized, or maybe even a miss of FL.

Climo to keep in mind: There have been only 5 TS and no H on record to form in the W. Car. or GOM during 5/21-31 since 1851. So, that's only 5 in 167 years or 1 in 33 chance/3% of there even being a genesis. Only 1 of those 5 hit FL. So, only 1 in 167 years had a FL TS hit or well under 1%. So, even going with a 5% chance of a FL hit in 2018 in deference to the model consensus of a threat of something is WAY, WAY above the longterm climo based chance.

The 5 W Car/GOM 5/21-31 geneses on record since 1851:

- 5/30/2008
- 5/28/1959: hit LA at 40 knots
- 5/25/1953: hit FL at 40 knots
- 5/27/1890
- 5/29/1865

They're rare Larry no doubt but I think with this much model support - pretty much every major global model (GFS, FV-3 GFS, GEM, ECM, NAVGEM. and ICON) are on-board with low pressure development. So these globals are sniffing out an environment conducive for development. To me with this much model support in 5-7 days, something will develop and become either a TD or TS. i think Hurricane unlikely given the time of year. Track uncertain but somewhere in the SE GOM in 5-6 days and then from therefter too far away to know.

[CyclonicFury]

yeah still over a week away

That's the key. We're still talking about something that is about 8-9 days out even if it something, and moreover, this would be in late May, when only 1 in 167 years has had a FL TS hit from the NW Caribbean or Gulf. Assuming that one knows 167 years of late May climo, to go any higher than, say, a 10% chance for a FL TS hit as of now would be crazy imo. I'm sticking to a 5% chance, which itself is 8 times the longterm climo based chance of 0.6%.

If, say, there were already a TC in the W Caribbean and if, say, the models were unanimously showing a TS hit on FL in 3 days, I might then go with a FL TS hit being likely despite only 1 in 167 years having had that kind of hit. But right now with it being modeled ~8 days out and still nothing close to a TC yet, no way I'd go anywhere close to likely!

Early June has had plenty of Florida TS hits though. A few days will not make a huge difference. But I agree that it is still a bit out but it looks very likely that at least some sort of low will form.

[gatorcane]

EPS mean shifts west to Central GOM.