Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[CyclonicFury]

This may have gone "poof" today but it's possible this wave will still have to be watched when it reaches the western Atlantic in about 8 days. It will likely be removed from the TWO and re-added some time next week. It's likely going to remain mostly devoid of deep convection until the time it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

[BobHarlem]

This may have gone "poof" today but it's possible this wave will still have to be watched when it reaches the western Atlantic in about 8 days. It will likely be removed from the TWO and re-added some time next week. It's likely going to remain mostly devoid of deep convection until the time it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

The 0Z CMC Canadian takes it and latches on on Aug 31st to this in the Bahamas and takes a hurricane into Miami on Labor day weekend. It's the Canadian, so I'd bet against it happening 3 times over.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This may have gone "poof" today but it's possible this wave will still have to be watched when it reaches the western Atlantic in about 8 days. It will likely be removed from the TWO and re-added some time next week. It's likely going to remain mostly devoid of deep convection until the time it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

The 0Z CMC Canadian takes it and latches on on Aug 31st to this in the Bahamas and takes a hurricane into Miami on Labor day weekend. It's the Canadian, so I'd bet against it happening 3 times over.

I think it's possible. The Canadian model isn't the best but it's significantly improved over the past few years as far as not having loads of ghost storms.

[cycloneye]

Even thou is possible,this wave will probably not me mentioned in the next few TWO's,the thread will remain open for the peeps to post comments about the wave as it moves thru the Atlantic. More important are those who live in the Leeward and Windward Islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico to post reports about the effects of wave as it moves thru the Caribbean Islands. There is the possibility that this wave may have some better conditions way downstream and NHC may have it back at the TWO and this is the reason this thread will remain open until of course it gets the invest designation. (If it gets tagged at all)

[gatorcane]

Even thou is possible,this wave will probably not me mentioned in the next few TWO's,the thread will remain open for the peeps to post comments about the wave as it moves thru the Atlantic. More important are those who live in the Leeward and Windward Islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico to post reports about the effects of wave as it moves thru the Caribbean Islands. There is the possibility that this wave may have some better conditions way downstream and NHC may have it back at the TWO and this is the reason this thread will remain open until of course it gets the invest designation. (If it gets tagged at all)

I think that’s a good idea. I think this is one wave that could get brought back by the NHC as conditions looks like they could be favorable down the road if it gets into the SW Atlantic/Bahamas.

[Gustywind]

Even thou is possible,this wave will probably not me mentioned in the next few TWO's,the thread will remain open for the peeps to post comments about the wave as it moves thru the Atlantic. More important are those who live in the Leeward and Windward Islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico to post reports about the effects of wave as it moves thru the Caribbean Islands. There is the possibility that this wave may have some better conditions way downstream and NHC may have it back at the TWO and this is the reason this thread will remain open until of course it gets the invest designation. (If it gets tagged at all)

That's an excellent post and fully agree with your opinion, congrats .

[jasons2k]

If - IF - it does make it all the way to the Islands or Bahamas, it will need to be watched very closely. Conditions look they will become more conducive for development and the Atlantic Ridge will be stout. This one may be westward bound before it's over.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD of wave:

A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 04N-
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist environment
and has 700 mb support. Scattered showers are from 11N-21N between
16W-26W.

[cycloneye]

This is the Canadian (CMC) that has this wave developing and tracks to GOM as a strong Tropical Storm but is the CMC.

[cycloneye]

No surprise.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Aug 24 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[wxGuy]

This is the Canadian (CMC) that has this wave developing and tracks to GOM as a strong Tropical Storm but is the CMC.

CMC is on to something

[canes92]

Even a tropical storm would be harsh for many in the Keys as lots are still recovering from Irma.

[facemane]

and the ridge is stout

Yeah, I'm not liking this at all. If a system does develop it isn't recurving

[blp]

For the first time 18z GFS develops this in the Gulf and brings it in over Louisiana.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A tropical wave is offshore the coast of Africa near 19W from
05N to 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is in a moist
environment, and is supported by 700 mb troughing. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm west of its axis from 05N to
07N. Scattered moderate convection is just inland the coast of
Africa within 30 nm of 14N16W.

[cycloneye]

Even thou is possible,this wave will probably not me mentioned in the next few TWO's,the thread will remain open for the peeps to post comments about the wave as it moves thru the Atlantic. More important are those who live in the Leeward and Windward Islands,BVI,USVI and Puerto Rico to post reports about the effects of wave as it moves thru the Caribbean Islands. There is the possibility that this wave may have some better conditions way downstream and NHC may have it back at the TWO and this is the reason this thread will remain open until of course it gets the invest designation. (If it gets tagged at all)

Adding to my earlier comment about letting this thread open,I have to say the models are hinting downstream that something may pop from this wave and that is another reason to mantain the thread running.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Both the FV3-GFS and operational GFS show development of this system once it reaches the GOMEX in 10-12 days.

[gatorcane]

Both the FV3-GFS and operational GFS show development of this system once it reaches the GOMEX in 10-12 days.

Saved image:

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18Z GFS ensembles are a little bit more enthusiastic as it approaches the Lesser Antilles:

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Both the FV3-GFS and operational GFS show development of this system once it reaches the GOMEX in 10-12 days.

Saved image:

also a nice 994mb low east of antilles as well