2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

Indeed looks like some subtropical development off the SE US Coast / Bahamas is looking possible.The 12Z Euro is showing a more defined area of low pressure while the 18Z GEFS looking more bullish. The Euro turns it west under a 500MB ridge into Florida but long-range, while the GFS sends it OTS:

[AJC3]

Gang,

If anyone is looking for the several posts that were in this thread that started talking about seasonal climatology, they've been moved over to the appropriate thread. Feel free to continue the discussion over there, but let's keep it civil and not escalate the snark.

Thanks.

[plasticup]

GFS and Navy are persistent with this development off the Georgia coast on May 16th. That's only 5 days out now. Time to start paying attention?

[plasticup]

12z GFS has a potential Bermuda threat:

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1259847373351727110

[GCANE]

CMC, NAVGEM, JMA also on board now.
CMC is showing a pretty aggressive warm core riding the Gulf Stream.

[Kazmit]

Seems like consolidation would happen in 5, maybe 4, days from now. If trends continue I think we'll see a mention from the NHC tomorrow.

[CyclonicFury]

This afternoon's WPC discussion suggests an NHC mention is likely coming within the next few days if models hold:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussio ... isc=pmdepd

Elsewhere, the trailing end of a stationary frontal boundary is
forecast to linger in the vicinity of South Florida and the
Bahamas through late in the week, before an area of low pressure
along the boundary forms and moves northeastward away from the
state. This boundary is expected to focus showers and
thunderstorms, with the potential for locally heavy rains across
South Florida Thu and Fri, before activity begins to shift east of
the state over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center and
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) are monitoring this
area for potential development as a sub-tropical or tropical
system by this weekend. The late afternoon fronts update will
reflect the forecast evolution of the system from the 17Z
coordination call today.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1260605725228793858

[Dean4Storms]

The ECM Ensembles have several members with Lows over the Western Gulf by early to mid next week with one member producing a 990mb storm. Graphic I saw of the ECM ENS was at 20% on TD development over the NW Gulf of Mexico next week.

[TheStormExpert]

The ECM Ensembles have several members with Lows over the Western Gulf by early to mid next week with one member producing a 990mb storm. Graphic I saw of the ECM ENS was at 20% on TD development over the NW Gulf of Mexico next week.

Yep, wouldn’t that be something if we saw Bertha too before the official start of the season! Of course if wouldn’t be the first time since it has occurred twice within the past decade where we’ve seen two named storms prior to June 1st, both 2012 and 2016 for anyone who forgot.

[TheStormExpert]

Just an FYI, the Euro has not been performing well. Definitely not living up to its old self!

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1260922489657602048

[tolakram]

That performance is typical for the globals when in a seasonal transition. See how they all dip?

[TheStormExpert]

That performance is typical for the globals when in a seasonal transition. See how they all dip?

Yes, but if I recall the Euro wasn’t performing to well even last season. It seemed to be all over the place unless it was within 3-5 days of occurring.

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, the 12z Today dropped that chance to 10% so looking doubtful on a Gulf development next week.

Looking at the MJO, the long term 500mb pattern and the JMA it is fair to say that early to mid-June might produce an early season storm, but we all know how the tropics can be.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Just an FYI, the Euro has not been performing well. Definitely not living up to its old self!

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1260922489657602048

Ok so I thought I knew how to read these charts but apparently not? Looks like the Euro has been marginally better than the GFS/CMC. Numbers for 90 days, 30 days, and 7 days are all highest. Higher number is better right? Plus just looking at the chart it would still appear to be tops overall for 500mb. So maybe it hasn't been as good as usual but it doesn't look to have been worse than GFS/CMC as the tweet implies.

EDIT- I see it now 'Hurricane Updates' apparently misunderstood the original tweet. The original was just talking about 1 data point and said all models have been pretty poor last 1.5 months. National Hurricane Updates or whoever that is turned it into its been worse than the GFS/CMC the last 1.5 months. Carry on nothing to see here lol.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS seems to show a western Caribbean monsoon trough past 15 days. Let’s see if it comes in in time or even starts to hint at development in the early part of June

[Cpv17]

Is that a wave hitting the upper TX coast on the 12z Euro?

[TheStormExpert]

Just posted this too in the indicators thread.

A TC in the Western Caribbean or East Pacific seems likely at this point during the first week of June.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1262359461290745857

[NDG]

My feeling that it will be pulled towards the NW Caribbean/southern GOM due to persistent troughiness over the south central US/MS river valley.