Tropical Wave in the East-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 92L)

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave located just east of the Lesser Antilles is
also producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. This wave is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20
mph during the next several days, and environmental conditions
could become a little more conducive for development when the system
is over the central or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[gatorcane]

Euro sends this and 91l into the Yucatan and BoC

[northjaxpro]

Looking at the wind shear analysis, this wave is traversing just underneath a belt of 25-30 Kt shear as it traverses w/nw. Shear drops off to about 10 Kt south of Puerto Rico in current analysis. It remains to be seen if this wave enters this low pocket of shear in the next couple of days. But, it is possible with 91L there, that low pocket of shear may not be there in the next few days. We will wait and see how this shakes down.

There is still a puncher's chance that this wave could develop over the next few days .

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, accompanied
by locally rainfall and gusty winds. This wave is forecast to move
westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days, and
environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development when the system is over the central or western Caribbean
Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[edu2703]

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Kinda surprised that they increased the formation chances despite the lack of model support. I would keep it at 20%.

Obviously, the NHC guys are the experts and always see something else that the models don't.

[Hurricaneman]

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Kinda surprised that they increased the formation chances despite the lack of model support. I would keep it at 20%.

Obviously, the NHC guys are the experts and always see something else that the models don't.

I see it this way, it has the look like its going to develop sometime later, may have to watch this as it may be the case where this is not being modeled well, we'll have to see if the models come back aboard with this feature

[SFLcane]

Not much else to say about this wave tonight so I’ll go ahead and post the Nogaps which takes this wave Into the NW Caribbean Sea and into the GOM before hooking NE across SFL.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS Ensemble are rather bullish on this compared to the Operational and Para versions

[edu2703]

00z Euro develops this wave in the gulf after showing almost no development for 91L

[TheStormExpert]

Not much else to say about this wave tonight so I’ll go ahead and post the Nogaps which takes this wave Into the NW Caribbean Sea and into the GOM before hooking NE across SFL.

https://i.imgur.com/qjE6u4q.gif

The NOGAPS sure loves striking Florida for some odd reason.

[edu2703]

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
accompanied by locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. This wave
is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next
several days, and environmental conditions could become a little
more conducive for development when the system is over the central
or western Caribbean Sea early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[SFLcane]

Would not surprise me to see this wave move into Central America without much development.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro develops this wave in the gulf after showing almost no development for 91L

https://s1.gifyu.com/images/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_fh0-240cb8e76a390c722c3.gif

If this TW develops like the EURO is showing I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see a strong hurricane moving into NW Caribbean and/or over Yucatan and then ultimately make a NE turn and cross somewhere between the FL Panhandle and Cuba...

[gfsperpendicular]

GFS brings this into Jamaica as a TD/weak TS in 84 hours:


Lots of spread elsewhere: Euro and CMC nada until the Gulf, albeit at different times. Para and NAVGEM track it over Hispaniola and Cuba, respectively then bring a well-defined vort into the east coast of Florida at TD or TS strength.

[toad strangler]

End of 00z Euro was is interesting with that NNE turn in the W GOM. Something to watch for at 12z.

[SFLcane]

End of 00z Euro was is interesting with that NNE turn in the W GOM. Something to watch for at 12z.

More like a NW turn towards the gulf coast. Don’t see any trofs to force an abrupt NE turn. We will see though to far out to speculate

[toad strangler]

End of 00z Euro was is interesting with that NNE turn in the W GOM. Something to watch for at 12z.

More like a NW turn towards the gulf coast. Don’t see any trofs to force an abrupt NE turn. We will see though to far out to speculate

10 days is way too far out to believe a trough less map in mid October. That's why it's a bit interesting. That's all I meant. And that is NOT a NW turn at the end of the 00z Euro.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1312027268009594882

[SFLcane]

HWRF develops this..