Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic

[TomballEd]

GFS is not immediately recurving it.

[TampaWxLurker]

GFS has it basically stalling out in the Bahamas for a few days so far on the run.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I believe it's back on the UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 27.4N 58.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.08.2025 144 28.5N 58.4W 1014 32
0000UTC 12.08.2025 156 30.3N 57.9W 1013 32
1200UTC 12.08.2025 168 32.7N 56.7W 1008 49

[TampaWxLurker]

GFS shows strong TS/weak Cat 1 into Cape Canaveral (980 mb at landfall) 270 hours out, then riding up or just inside the coast to Jacksonville.

[abajan]

2 PM:

A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves
generally west-northwestward across the central tropical or
subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro like recent runs has this as no more than a weak sfc low and then recurves the weak disturbance safely well out in the ocean. So, it is totally disagreeing with the GFS’s FL hit.

[WaveBreaking]

12Z GEFS also agrees with the latest Euro. Weaker members than the 6Z run and more OTS tracks.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS also agrees with the latest Euro. Weaker members than the 6Z run and more OTS tracks.

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/gefs/sessions/gefs_2025-08-05-12Z_144_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png

Thanks. The 12Z EPS also agrees with the Euro (op and AI) and the GEFS regarding having little from this AOI. That’s a huge change from Friday, when it had ~50% of its members with a TC and with a good portion threatening the Caribbean/Bahamas/Conus from this lead AEW.

[Blown Away]

Maybe a group of the 12z ECENS see the same pattern, just slower, than the Operational GFS? I noticed the 12z GFS stalled/wobbled just before hour 240, maybe this is the model stating to correct being too fast? The 12z GEFS/ECENS still not to excited to match the GFS Operational. Something to watch in future GFS/GEFS/ECENS runs. JMHO...

[BobHarlem]

The 12z Canadian goes right over Bermuda.

[floridasun]

been looking at models runs none got mind set how strong were going we days watch see if become ts or Hurr it waits and see game

[StormWeather]

I personally worry that this could be a sleeper wave, that it’s development could sneak up on us.

[Nimbus]

I personally worry that this could be a sleeper wave, that it’s development could sneak up on us.

Southeast coast of Florida has been lucky avoiding major hurricanes since Jeanne 21 years ago, and Andrew 33 years ago. Historically South Florida should expect a major hurricane every 9 years, people are not prepared for a major and it would be a nightmare.

[LarryWx]

1. The GFS continues as of today’s Happy Hour run to not safely recurve this as it grazes the Conus E coast from NC to ME followed by a direct hit on Nova Scotia. The storm then goes into Newfoundland.

2. The 12Z JMA once again also doesn’t recurve this. It has it just N of PR moving WNW at the end (192 hrs).

[Nimbus]

1. The GFS continues as of today’s Happy Hour run to not safely recurve this as it grazes the Conus E coast from NC to ME followed by a direct hit on Nova Scotia. The storm then goes into Newfoundland.

2. The 12Z JMA once again also doesn’t recurve this. It has it just N of PR moving WNW at the end (192 hrs).

Hopefully there is a kink in the jet stream next week to reposition the blocking ridge but I don't like what I'm seeing in my crystal ball. Probably just the water vapor loop with an uncomfortably zonal steering pattern. Usually I don't try to project where stuff will be 10 days out.

[BobHarlem]

Most concentrated run of the Euro ensembles yet here

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Bermuda paying attention to this one.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Most concentrated run of the Euro ensembles yet here
https://i.imgur.com/XxQ0T0B.png

If that is the case, we should have some idea in 3 days if it is correct

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET has a recurve well out in ocean like on the prior run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 33.3N 53.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 144 33.9N 52.9W 1013 30
1200UTC 12.08.2025 156 36.1N 50.9W 1013 33
0000UTC 13.08.2025 168 39.2N 51.6W 1011 30

[LarryWx]

It looks like the 0Z 8/6 GFS has a chance to be the first GFS run since way back at 18Z on 8/2 without a TC from this though it’s still trying late well to the north.