Tropical Wave Over the Far Eastern Atlantic: (Is Invest 97L)

[BobHarlem]

96L Exits a lot sooner this run (roughly hour 135) vs the 6z (312h) not sure of the impact that will do on the african wave.'

More intense than earlier runs north of the Caribbean

[TampaWxLurker]

Looking at the 700-300mb Relative Humidity chart on this GFS run at 132 hours (as far as that has loaded), it looks like it's starting to entrain dry air from the big dry airmass that's been in front of it for most of its trip in the model to this point. Could keep a lid on intensity until it clears the dry air mass when it gets further west.

[cycloneye]

Too close for confort for our members in the NE Caribbean islands including me in San Juan if that verifies.

[Cpv17]

Too close for confort for our members in the NE Caribbean islands including me in San Juan if that verifies.

Way too far out to get a good feel of where it’s going. Even ensembles at this range could change drastically run to run.

[BobHarlem]

Coming in south and a little slower than the 6z here, about the same intensity. It does get over the Bahamas this run.




looks like Straits or S. Florida this run.

[LAF92]

Shooting the gap

[BobHarlem]

Shooting the gap

[Jxdama]

Shooting the gap

https://i.imgur.com/PXsjbV7.png

misses florida to the south........strong high pressure to the north this run

[chris_fit]

Shooting the gap

https://i.imgur.com/PXsjbV7.png

[BobHarlem]

Middle of the Gulf here

[Fancy1002]

Middle of the Gulf here
https://i.imgur.com/ZaxzJce.png

So the three most likely scenarios are either a medium hurricane going out to see before, reaching the states, a medium to strong hurricane hitting the south east states or skirting along the coast, or a strong monster storm heading into the gulf and going who knows where.

[Ian2401]

NHC has no choice but to at least lemon it at 2pm given how quick the GFS spins it up

[SconnieCane]

So everything from a harmless recurve to the Gulf is still on the table. That tracks. Welcome to hurricane season!

[BobHarlem]

Freeport, TX landfall

[jlauderdal]

Middle of the Gulf here
https://i.imgur.com/ZaxzJce.png

324 is out there but looking backwards, the ridging on the euro and gfs suites looks stout enough to get something west of 70. Remember, the most dangerous storms typically get going w of 60.

[AutoPenalti]

So everything from a harmless recurve to the Gulf is still on the table. That tracks. Welcome to hurricane season!

The main change here seems to be the lack of any lows forming in the subtropics, 96L escapes or just doesn't develop and we have a whole different synoptic set up.

[StormWeather]

Freeport, TX landfall
https://i.imgur.com/g5vLMVk.png

How common is it for a storm to form south of the CV islands and just off the coast Africa and making it all the way west into the Gulf for a landfall in Mexico or Texas?

[Cpv17]

Middle of the Gulf here
https://i.imgur.com/ZaxzJce.png

So the three most likely scenarios are either a medium hurricane going out to see before, reaching the states, a medium to strong hurricane hitting the south east states or skirting along the coast, or a strong monster storm heading into the gulf and going who knows where.

I mean, all options are still on the table. Central America to Bermuda.

[Cpv17]

Freeport, TX landfall
https://i.imgur.com/g5vLMVk.png

How common is it for a storm to form south of the CV islands and just off the coast Africa and making it all the way west into the Gulf for a landfall in Mexico or Texas?

In August that’s a fairly common track.

[SconnieCane]

Freeport, TX landfall
https://i.imgur.com/g5vLMVk.png

How common is it for a storm to form south of the CV islands and just off the coast Africa and making it all the way west into the Gulf for a landfall in Mexico or Texas?

Pretty rare, but not unheard of. Irma formed pretty close to Africa, and got into the Gulf (albeit only just with its Marco Island landfall).

I'm leaning toward this one taking a bit longer to form, which would actually increase the threat to land somewhere in the western basin as other posters have touched on.