rainstorm wrote:my 12/8/4 seems way too high. conditions are unfavorable everywhere
Does it now?
12/7/6
It may take a while
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donsutherland1 wrote:Rainstorm,
1982, 1983, 1994, and 1997 all featured El Niños. The MEI for those years (May-June through September-October) was as follows:
1982 +1.632
1983 +1.171
1994 +0.808
1997 +2.573
2004 has no El Niño. It is a neutral year. So far, the MEI is averaging 0.286.
That's a world of difference. So odds are strongly against a 1982, 1983, 1994, or 1997-type season.
Seeing that 1994 had an elnino, and 1995 was one of the most active season's on record, does not bode well for us next year.
with a weak elnino this year, into early 2005, could that not signal a "worse" atlantic tropical season than this??
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Quotes from rainstorm...Talk about having crow for Thanksgiving,Christmas,New Years & St.Patty's Day.
Charley developed shortly after the above statement
Was pretty animated about a dud season..I think what has taken place is mother nature's way of saying SHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!
my 12/8/4 seems way too high. conditions are unfavorable everywhere
maybe downgrade to 7/4/1
i think everyone will downgrade. maybe a 94 or 97 type season? or 82 or 83
another thing is the west pac has heated back up, which will limit the africa waves
with both the east and west pac getting active, its going to be awhile for anything in the atlantic
Charley developed shortly after the above statement
if an el nino hits at the peak of the season, with all the other negative factors, i think we will see 7/4/1. there will be nothing for awhile
Was pretty animated about a dud season..I think what has taken place is mother nature's way of saying SHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!
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