INVEST 96L

[sma10]

Re: dwg71's post

Yes, the western Atlantic trough is an issue that is becoming more and more of a deciding factor this season. While the trough was not very noticeable in May or June, since then it has continued to remain an active feature, and, because of the very slow movement of Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Harvey, the trough has only deepened, and seems to have created a long-term rift in the subtropical ridge, with a portion consisting of small high centered off the southeast U.S. coast, with the bulk of the ridge lying between Bermuda and the Azores.

Frank

Frank, would you say the U.S.E.C. can start breathing esaier regarding damaging landfalling hurricanes this year?

If you're talking about storms that form out east of 40W you may be right. But a Central Atlantic trough may or may not have any effect on anything that forms west of there.

[TS Zack]

Huge ridge building across the Western Atlantic. If it can stay weak for a day or so, it will get under that ridge.

[Frank2]

Re: sma10's post

We were not just speaking about the trough in the mid-Atlantic, but the continuing trough between Bermuda and the southeast U.S. coast, so, there are actually two major troughs for tropical systems to interact with at this time.

Frank

[Ivanhater]

Re: sma10's post

We were not just speaking about the trough in the mid-Atlantic, but the continuing trough between Bermuda and the southeast U.S. coast, so, there are actually two major troughs for tropical systems to interact with at this time.

Frank

like i said the pattern is changing, the alaska blocking high is causing a trough in the rockies and strong ridging over the southeast and atlantic....the pattern is changing!

[dwg71]

Re: sma10's post

We were not just speaking about the trough in the mid-Atlantic, but the continuing trough between Bermuda and the southeast U.S. coast, so, there are actually two major troughs for tropical systems to interact with at this time.

Frank

It appears to be being pulled northward already, at least the main convection:

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962005) ON 20050812 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050812 1800 050813 0600 050813 1800 050814 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.8N 42.5W 12.2N 44.5W 12.9N 45.7W 13.7N 46.5W
BAMM 11.8N 42.5W 11.9N 44.3W 12.3N 45.5W 12.8N 46.4W
A98E 11.8N 42.5W 11.8N 44.8W 11.9N 47.0W 12.2N 49.0W
LBAR 11.8N 42.5W 12.2N 44.5W 13.3N 46.1W 14.5N 47.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050814 1800 050815 1800 050816 1800 050817 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 47.1W 15.8N 48.3W 17.8N 50.3W 20.2N 53.0W
BAMM 13.0N 47.2W 12.8N 49.1W 12.7N 51.9W 11.7N 56.2W
A98E 12.6N 50.9W 13.7N 54.3W 15.1N 57.4W 17.3N 60.1W
LBAR 15.8N 48.2W 18.7N 49.7W 23.1N 53.0W 28.1N 55.7W
SHIP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 67KTS
DSHP 48KTS 56KTS 61KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 42.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 40.3W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 37.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00 Model Guidance.Only the BAMM goes west while the others go north.

[TS Zack]

Another headace on the way!

[Frank2]

Since you from Louisana, you'll know about this old ad - I could use a BC Powder right now!

[sma10]

Re: sma10's post

We were not just speaking about the trough in the mid-Atlantic, but the continuing trough between Bermuda and the southeast U.S. coast, so, there are actually two major troughs for tropical systems to interact with at this time.

Frank

I see one of the troughs you refer to (it appears to have dipped to approx 20N 50W). We'll see what effects it may have on the developing wave in the days to come. If you believe the GFS it will have a significant impact; if you believe the Euro the impact will be less.

The bottom line is that this year is no different than any other - it's all in the timing. If that trough just sits there for the next 8 weeks without moving there probably won't be any long trackers this year. But I'm not sure anyone can accurately predict that.

[x-y-no]

12Z Euro has the mid-atlantic trough picking it up.

[sma10]

12Z Euro has the mid-atlantic trough picking it up.

What is that feature just to the north of Puerto Rico on day 7?

[Frank2]

The bottom line is that this year is no different than any other - it's all in the timing.

True enough, and the timing so far this year (with the exception of Dennis as far as the U.S. is concerned, though even in that case, since it weakened just before landfall), seems to favor an "at sea" season.

Frank

[southerngale]

A little off topic, but y'all check this out.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=70388

[x-y-no]

12Z Euro has the mid-atlantic trough picking it up.

What is that feature just to the north of Puerto Rico on day 7?

That's the next wave in line ... which it seems to carry along far enough south and weak enough to get across. The 0Z had it tracking a little further south into the eastern Caribbean.

7 days is fantasyland, though.

[Weatherboy1]

that's the question that I think is important here. Either it will grab all of 96 and steer it almost due north (What the GFDL and the deep BAM model show) or it will just shear the heck out of it as the low-level impulse heads W. My guess is shear, not steer. But even if the wave manages to keep heading W instead of getting recurved, it could get ripped apart by the shear before developing into anything.

-Mike

[sma10]

12Z Euro has the mid-atlantic trough picking it up.

What is that feature just to the north of Puerto Rico on day 7?

That's the next wave in line ... which it seems to carry along far enough south and weak enough to get across. The 0Z had it tracking a little further south into the eastern Caribbean.

7 days is fantasyland, though.

X-Y: I thought it might be the next wave, but I had my doubts that it could have gotten that far west so quickly. While I do agree with you that 7 days is fantasyland, the Euro is well-known for its mid-range prowess.

[Blown Away]

http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php

It's crystal clear now!!

[superfly]

Looks like a low level broad circulation is very evident.

[TS Zack]

<img src="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif">

TAFB doesn't think so!

[deltadog03]

a new tropical wave in the SW carr??