TD#10=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[gkrangers]

BAMD left, BAMM mostly unchanged, LBAR recurves it almost immediately.

SHIPS intensity, slow strenghthening for the first 48 hours.

[WeatherEmperor]

Wow by that models I was very close.

nah. just a very very lucky guess. lol

<RICKY>

[sma10]

Wow by that models I was very close.

Actually you did excellent with your positioning -- Considering how difficult it is to find a sheared system's center on IR -- good job.

[boca]

Elysuim will this be a Florida threat possibility or Bermuda Outer Banks NC threat.

[sma10]

Wow by that models I was very close.

nah. just a very very lucky guess. lol

<RICKY>

Maybe that, too

[floridahurricaneguy]

elysium: your discussion is interesting and very possible. I dont really know as much as you so I cant say much about your discussion but it makes sense.

Deffinitely looks intersting though. TD 10 looks like it will throw us for a loop for a little bit.

Matt

[sma10]

BAMD left, BAMM mostly unchanged, LBAR recurves it almost immediately.

SHIPS intensity, slow strenghthening for the first 48 hours.

gk: count on another very difficult system to forecast. Consider: a relatively weak, sheared system moving slowly in the Central Atlantic -- it'll be another toughie.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I been watching these things long enough to know how to place a center. Also the flow is moving to the west south of there.

[sma10]

I just looked at the tracking history of Irene. Do you guys realize that by the time Irene reached the current longitude of TD10 she was already north of 20N? I didn't realize the disparity was that great.

[mahicks]

Skeeto...I love your model pic better than sfwmd's, but If I could ask for an upgrade or two it would be...

1. LAT/LONG numbers you could easily read and on every line.
2. Zoomed out a bit so you could get a better perspective.

I still love it like they are! Keep up the great work!

[SkeetoBite]

Skeeto...I love your model pic better than sfwmd's, but If I could ask for an upgrade or two it would be...

1. LAT/LONG numbers you could easily read and on every line.
In progress, barely visible in the full size images

2. Zoomed out a bit so you could get a better perspective.
Done!
I still love it like they are! Keep up the great work!

Every thumbnail above this post should have updated automatically with this change. Thank you for your feedback.

[mahicks]

Skeeto...I love your model pic better than sfwmd's, but If I could ask for an upgrade or two it would be...

1. LAT/LONG numbers you could easily read and on every line.
In progress, barely visible in the full size images

2. Zoomed out a bit so you could get a better perspective.
Done!
I still love it like they are! Keep up the great work!

Every thumbnail above this post should have updated automatically with this change. Thank you for your feedback.

OMG! You Rock! Thank You

[elysium]

T.D. 10 is now coming under the influence of the ridge to the north but there is also sheer from the trough in the vicinity. This won't be around very long, and no, there is nothing preventing further development. T.D 10 has actually gained convection the past hour and improved its outflow in spite of the remnant sheer. It won't likely be named, though, until tomorrow.

There is no way of knowing a whole lot more about where T.D. 10 might landfall. Remember that there is no ridge being forecasted to develop over S.E. Georgia/ N. Florida by any of the models I use. This is what I strongly suspect, however. The subtropical ridge east of 50W will still be the flimsy lackluster ridge we have become used to over the past couple weeks. That hasn't changed. And I don't think we will see anything generated in the east Atlantic after Jose that won't fish until at least September. The ridge is that bad on the east. The timing for Jose just happens to be a rare exception. Without the S. Georgia/ N. Florida ridge developing, Jose is total fish. If the western periphery wasn't building in so strongly this hour, information the models are not yet fully accounting for this hour, the southeastern ridge wouldn't be there on time for Jose anyway. And it would be hung up in the central states.

The ridge visable just now on WV building in powerfully over Bermuda will provide the initial westward drive, and do so more resolutely than is currently being forecast. Those models will shift left. Then the S.E. Georgia ridge drives it home. It just appears as though Florida has a better chance of being landfalled by Jose than does the rest of the eastern seaboard, however, since there is no way of determing how greatly the second trough will weaken the two bridging highs, there is much uncertainty. My best guess, however, is that the effect of this trough will be minimal to negligible. It appears as though a very strong ridge will set up over S.E. Georgia/ N. Florida, while the subtropical quickly fills back in.

[sma10]

Derek: I noticed on your page you're calling for a turn soon to the North. Are you calling for a recurve already?

[gkrangers]

BAMD left, BAMM mostly unchanged, LBAR recurves it almost immediately.

SHIPS intensity, slow strenghthening for the first 48 hours.

gk: count on another very difficult system to forecast. Consider: a relatively weak, sheared system moving slowly in the Central Atlantic -- it'll be another toughie.

I completely agree..said so in the climo thread I posted. Just readin the models at face value.

[boca]

Thanks Elysuim for replying to my question.

[Patrick99]

Is it now moving due north, or is that just the convection blowing off? I can't get any good satellite loops on it.

I think this is going to be pretty short-lived, because it appears to be getting completely owned by that low.

[gkrangers]

Is it now moving due north, or is that just the convection blowing off? I can't get any good satellite loops on it.

I think this is going to be pretty short-lived, because it appears to be getting completely owned by that low.

The convection is getting blown off to the northeast. It appears the circulation is to the SW of the convection...further SW than it was 6 hours ago.

[SouthFloridawx]

does anyone have a floater loop of the depression?

[SouthFloridawx]