Invest 95L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cajungal]

I know it is still very early and this thing is not even a depression yet, but it looks likely that this may get in the gulf.

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS shows that the system goes away from the Lesser Antilles.Above is the graphic in 7 days where they have it by then.The question is if they have the inicial point right as the system is just below 10n right now and may miss the trough.

[ronjon]

Looks increasingly that the disturbance (future storm?) will make its way into the Carribean Sea and pass south of PR and the Virgin Islands due to its low latitiude. Latest dynamical models keep it at low latitude in the Carribean. Does it get into the GOM and threaten US or take a path ala Emily?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_95.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks increasingly that the disturbance (future storm?) will make its way into the Carribean Sea and pass south of PR and the Virgin Islands due to its low latitiude. Latest dynamical models keep it at low latitude in the Carribean. Does it get into the GOM and threaten US or take a path ala Emily?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_95.gif

need to watch the global models on this one.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The 12z GFS shows that the system goes away from the Lesser Antilles.Above is the graphic in 7 days where they have it by then.The question is if they have the inicial point right as the system is just below 10n right now and may miss the trough.

Cyclone the GFS is so full of S@$% in this one i can smell it...Look out man its goin gt be south of you in 5 days

[CHRISTY]

i live in homestead local mets keep saying a tropical will be moving towards florida in the weekend there just not sure if its going to develope? could that be it the one you put one there???

[Steve H.]

Yeah, of the dynamical models I tend to prefer the BAMM, which takes it NNW. That being said, I don't believe this is an out to sea low by any means. The GFS has that in that position in 240 hours! Way too long/late. This we'll have to monitor closely into next week, as this could get close to Luis! Furthermore, the models are suggesting some development near the SE Bahamas that may go thru the Florida Straits into the GOM. If I were in the GOM coastal areas I would keep an eye on that potential.

[f5]

remember we wrote TD 10 off which became Katrina.Her distruction will never ever be forgotten.

[CHRISTY]

channel 7 news just said tropical wave bringing changes for the weekend?anybody has more info let me know!

[bvigal]

can someone please show me where to find those model text messages which include dvorak numbers?

[x-y-no]

0Z run of the European is similar to the GFS on this system, slowly developing it but taking it north out to sea after 7 days at about 60W.

[cycloneye]

can someone please show me where to find those model text messages which include dvorak numbers?

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

Is this what you are looking for my friend?

[bvigal]

can someone please show me where to find those model text messages which include dvorak numbers?

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/?C=M;O=D

Is this what you are looking for my friend?

Thanks Luis! Actually, I'm looking for the ones which are sometimes posted here, that include the Dvorak T-numbers.

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Ok the dvorak link is above.

[ronjon]

channel 7 news just said tropical wave bringing changes for the weekend?anybody has more info let me know!

Christy, the trop wave discussed by your local news is not 95L. it is another one forming NE of PR that is expected to cross S FL this weekend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[x-y-no]

channel 7 news just said tropical wave bringing changes for the weekend?anybody has more info let me know!

That wouldn't be 95L, but rather a piece cut off from the trough east of the Bahamas moving west under a building ridge.

Not much to it now, but the way this season has gone one has to watch for homebrew development. Odds are we just get some rain out of it.

[bvigal]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Ok the dvorak link is above.

You're the BEST, Luis!!!

I notice our 95L isn't even on there yet. Maybe that's good news for us.

[ronjon]

0Z run of the European is similar to the GFS on this system, slowly developing it but taking it north out to sea after 7 days at about 60W.

We'll see. It's at an awful low latitude to recurve at 60W. Also, the globals are pretty rapidly developing this system and swinging it up into the trough NW of there now. I don't expect rapid development or much development for another 10-15 deg of longitude, that's why I'm betting on the dynamical models or an average of the dynamical and globals to get this thing into the Carribean sea.

[DESTRUCTION5]

0Z run of the European is similar to the GFS on this system, slowly developing it but taking it north out to sea after 7 days at about 60W.

We'll see. It's at an awful low latitude to recurve at 60W. Also, the globals are pretty rapidly developing this system and swinging it up into the trough NW of there now. I don't expect rapid development or much development for another 10-15 deg of longitude, that's why I'm betting on the dynamical models or an average of the dynamical and globals to get this thing into the Carribean sea.

Agree...I say 70W before any NWD movment starts

[x-y-no]

0Z run of the European is similar to the GFS on this system, slowly developing it but taking it north out to sea after 7 days at about 60W.

We'll see. It's at an awful low latitude to recurve at 60W. Also, the globals are pretty rapidly developing this system and swinging it up into the trough NW of there now. I don't expect rapid development or much development for another 10-15 deg of longitude, that's why I'm betting on the dynamical models or an average of the dynamical and globals to get this thing into the Carribean sea.

Yeah, I'm not convinced this turns north that soon either. Still, the Euro if anything frequently has a westward bias, so I thought I'd offer this for consideration. When I get some time later, I'll take a look at the initialization to see if I believe it.