90L Invest SW Caribbean

[Cookiely]

Well IT is not looking too impressive this morning, but then we've said that a lot this season when the storms were in their infancy.

[Geomagnetic Man]

Im with FLoydbuster on this one for sure! These storms even if its a guy, were called female....Twister the movie..."She's shifting" "She's gonna bury you" WTF is all that about? Maybe its saying what bit**es females are that cause destruction in ones life? Who knows, it could very well mean that, but storms DO NOT need to be said, he or she...Im sure people can type more of Katrina will slam the coast, instead of She will slam the coast..Its not that hard....Also, if we were physically saying the gender from the storms, they would all be Girls..Umm..something in the middle of the storms classifies those storms as girls, and not boys, LOL...Well..Unless you got a tall towering cumulus cloud...Ah, weather can be so funny at times! But anyway, like I said, im with Floyd and the other guy before me that agrees with him! I could call this post a girl or boy if I want right? He is a good post...hmm, I like that, not!

GeoMan James

[Thunder44]

Dvorak numbers:

26/0545 UTC 10.7N 80.7W T1.0/1.0 90

[Cookiely]

This is from the Miami NWS discussion.
A DISTURBANCE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS BOUNDARY IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN MAY SLOWLY DEVELOP. MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT
SOME VARIETY OF A LOW OVER THIS AREA...AND PULL IT GENERALLY
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THUS INTRODUCED
SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO DAY 7. WAY TO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER
THIS WILL DEVELOP INTO ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. CLIMATOLOGY DOES
STILL SHOW A LOW PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY IN NOVEMBER. WHILE
WE MAY BE ENJOYING THE FALL-LIKE AIRMASS NOW...IT MAY NOT BE HERE
TO STAY QUITE YET. THE ONE THING THAT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN IS
GRADUAL WARMING AND MOISTENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

5:30 AM TWO.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like a small possiblity of a US threat. Thats good news.

[cycloneye]

26/1145 UTC 10.5N 80.3W T1.0/1.0 90 -- Atlantic Ocean

[mtm4319]

Not too shabby looking right now. I wouldn't be shocked to see a TD by 5pm.

(Edited to change link to the correct satellite pic of 90L)

[Noah]

Can this be a florida threat?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20051026 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051026 1200 051027 0000 051027 1200 051028 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.5N 80.5W 11.1N 81.7W 12.1N 82.9W 12.9N 84.0W
BAMM 10.5N 80.5W 11.2N 81.8W 12.0N 82.7W 12.7N 83.6W
A98E 10.5N 80.5W 10.6N 81.1W 10.9N 82.0W 11.3N 83.1W
LBAR 10.5N 80.5W 11.3N 81.2W 12.9N 81.9W 15.0N 82.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051028 1200 051029 1200 051030 1200 051031 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 85.2W 14.3N 87.2W 14.0N 89.6W 14.0N 92.7W
BAMM 13.2N 84.4W 13.3N 86.4W 12.2N 89.0W 11.5N 92.5W
A98E 11.9N 84.4W 12.1N 87.9W 12.3N 91.9W 12.8N 95.8W
LBAR 17.3N 83.2W 22.6N 81.2W 29.0N 74.1W 32.8N 62.4W
SHIP 48KTS 51KTS 46KTS 33KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 25KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.5N LONCUR = 80.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 80.1W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 78.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


12:00z Models.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the BAM models go to the EPAC while LBAR has other ideas.

[Nimbus]

These models are still early divergent guesses.



I figured the front remnants would pull it north some for starters.

[Hyperstorm]

This system is VERY close to being upgraded to a tropical depression with a persistent burst of convection over what appears to be a tiny LLC. It could very well be officially one over the next 12-18 hours.

This is a relatively small system, which most likely has a tiny surface circulation similar to Alpha. These types of systems I fear the most, since they tend to experiment drastic changes in intensity in a matter of hours. Conditions aloft are not expected to be as favorable as for the wave approaching the Caribbean Sea, but they should be favorable enough for intensification. Even more so, the fact that this is a relatively small system means that it will be susceptible to rapid bursts of intensification/weakening.

As long as this system remains over water, the potential is there for it to strengthen into a hurricane. The GFDL forecast of a 950mb hurricane is not out of the question with such warm waters and slow movement.

Some global models forecast this system to linger near the Nicaragua/Honduras coastlines before being picked up by southwesterly flow at the upper-levels over the SE United States. The tropical models move this into Central America. It will be VERY interesting (to say the least), to watch how this developing system interacts with Invest 91L.

Regardless, this system has the potential to strengthen and cause significant flooding over Central America in the days to come...

[Canelaw99]

Is Beta a female?? Was Alpha a male? Let's hope Beta doesn't follow in her sisters footprints and be a trouble maker.

Yes, Alpha was a male, so Beta will be female. Be careful, the women have been nasty this year!

And let's not forget that most of the nasty women this year have ended with an a....KatrinA, RitA, WilmA....

[Canelaw99]

Not too shabby looking right now. I wouldn't be shocked to see a TD by 5pm.

That's 91L - wrong system for this thread

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 261400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 26 OCT 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z OCT 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-151

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 14N AND 82W AT 28/2000Z.


For friday afternoon a plane is sceduled to task 90L but as they say (If Necessary)

[Brent]

Actually that flight is on Friday. Today is the 26th.

[cycloneye]

Actually that flight is on Friday. Today is the 26th.

Yep I edited that.

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF WESTERN PANAMA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[mtm4319]

Not too shabby looking right now. I wouldn't be shocked to see a TD by 5pm.

That's 91L - wrong system for this thread

Floater 1 is now over 90L, but Floater 2 was over 90L this morning. 91L does look pretty shabby to me. Looking at 90L now, though, it doesn't look as good as this morning.