Tropical Storm Ernesto #7 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Bella]

Here's a plot I made showing the latest dynamic models and the NHC track. NHC's track is left of all the 18Z dynamic guidance:
[img]
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto31.gif[/img]

not able to access link??

backtrack to the end of "gif"

[wxman57]

The link is fixed. The forum doesn't like it when the img tag gets on a separate line from the image link. I won't post the image again, but here's the link.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto31.gif

By the way, the models you're viewing are various iteration sof the GFDL and GFS, as well as a quite good consensus model - CONU.

[teal61]

Boy that llcc sure did'nt wast any time getting back under that convection. Has the shear eased up that much or is this gonna be one of those situations where it goes through cycles of building up then gets blown off ?

This is a public service announcement for my fellow storm2ker's in and around the Spring TX area. I was trying to post it on the gas price thread but lindaloo locked it before I got it in. (Please don't get mad at me)

I'm sure prices will skyrocket next week as this system enters the Gulf, although it will depend on how strong it becomes and the damage it causes to the oil platforms.

Really sucks because I just paid $2.46 a gallon here in Spring, lowest price I've seen in a while. I told my wife we were gonna keep both vehicles topped off over the weekend just in case things get whacko. Come to think of it, it really sucks when you think $2.46 is cheap for gas. I never thought I would ever say that.

For any of you folks who live in or near the Spring, TX area, I bought it at the Citgo on Kuykendahl at the back entrance to Bridgestone Subd. Better get it while you can.

[Epsilon_Fan]

so much for the "slow season" eh? Full scale panic mode already for a storm that is a week away from the Gulf. lol

[EmeraldCoast1]

Models, Models, Models.

Don't forget folks, that the MODELS and official forecast 6 days prior to its actual landfall had Katrina making landfall at Apalachicola/Big Bend area. A whole lot can and probably will change in the next 6-9 days prior to an eventual landfall somewhere along the GOM coast.

[Stormcenter]

Here's a plot I made showing the latest dynamic models and the NHC track. NHC's track is left of all the 18Z dynamic guidance:

Looks like a storm hooking toward the right to me at the end. I'm glad it's Friday and not Monday because then I would be concerned for LA. and points westward. The good thing as of right now we have nothing out there like Katrina right now and still talking 3-4 days away.

[Grease Monkey]

Never time to panic. Always should remain cool, calm, and collected.

[wxman57]

Models, Models, Models.

Don't forget folks, that the MODELS and official forecast 6 days prior to its actual landfall had Katrina making landfall at Apalachicola/Big Bend area. A whole lot can and probably will change in the next 6-9 days prior to an eventual landfall somewhere along the GOM coast.

You are correct. I have very low confidence in any landfall poing along the Gulf coast. Anywhere from Brownsville to Apalachicola is fair game.

[jasons2k]

Hey Teal, thanks for the tip. I'm more in The Woodlands and it's running closer to $2.60 for regular. I think I will keep mine topped-off too and make sure we have supplies just in case. If Houston gets in the cone you know there will be a panic.

[Furious George]

WXman57, excellent plot. But do you buy those model runs - and what do you think of the BAM model plots that are further west?

[Stormcenter]

so much for the "slow season" eh? Full scale panic mode already for a storm that is a week away from the Gulf. lol

I think EVERYONE on this board believed it would pick up eventuallly and we would have at least 1-2 storms to deal with. As long as it's nothing like last season.

[deltadog03]

BTW has anyone noticed that the LLC has gotten tucked back under the DEEP convection again?

[ROCK]

WXman57, excellent plot. But do you buy those model runs - and what do you think of the BAM model plots that are further west?

oh no, don't get him started on the BAM models........just joking of course...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Models, Models, Models.

Don't forget folks, that the MODELS and official forecast 6 days prior to its actual landfall had Katrina making landfall at Apalachicola/Big Bend area. A whole lot can and probably will change in the next 6-9 days prior to an eventual landfall somewhere along the GOM coast.

You are correct. I have very low confidence in any landfall poing along the Gulf coast. Anywhere from Brownsville to Apalachicola is fair game.

Has the forecast position of the ridge changed for next week since yesterday?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Models, Models, Models.

Don't forget folks, that the MODELS and official forecast 6 days prior to its actual landfall had Katrina making landfall at Apalachicola/Big Bend area. A whole lot can and probably will change in the next 6-9 days prior to an eventual landfall somewhere along the GOM coast.

You are correct. I have very low confidence in any landfall poing along the Gulf coast. Anywhere from Brownsville to Apalachicola is fair game.

Has the forecast position of the ridge changed for next week since yesterday?

Seeing a weaker one if you ask me

[canegrl04]

Well the waters in the GOM are notorious for making monsters.Last year,Katrina crossed over Florida,and still managed to gain the strength of a cat 5

[Furious George]

Models, Models, Models.

Don't forget folks, that the MODELS and official forecast 6 days prior to its actual landfall had Katrina making landfall at Apalachicola/Big Bend area. A whole lot can and probably will change in the next 6-9 days prior to an eventual landfall somewhere along the GOM coast.

You are correct. I have very low confidence in any landfall poing along the Gulf coast. Anywhere from Brownsville to Apalachicola is fair game.

Totally agree. Too many unknows at this point in time. It's good to here a pro met say that - I honestlly wouldn't believe anyone who tried to pinpoint it down to one landfalling state now - not w/ all the variables in place.

[Damar91]

I know what will be said now, but too bad, I have to say it. That "cone of death" keeps creeping more towards the Fl peninsula every update.

There is a higher chance of me winning 1 million bucks tomorrow than S FL being affected.

I think you are right on that. Probably a better chance of a Powerball win..

Pretty bold statement considering not even the pros know for sure where it's going. 2 days ago, most people thought it would continue due west into Mexico.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Imagine if the press got a hold of WXman's Plotted Map there in the 18Z..LOL

[MississippiHurricane]

deltadog03, I did not notice. Is the shear letting up?