Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[cycloneye]

Is now moving NW at 9 mph per 8 AM advisory.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Well I don’t think it will die off either. Many if the models have it going and staying for an extended vacation in Cuba. None of the intensity guidance have anything less than a STRONG TS. So there is model support for a Cuba landfall and continuation of the cyclone.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[Scorpion]

Its weakening, interesting.

[rnbaida]

Its weakening, interesting.

what do you mean?

[Scorpion]

When the pressure rises this much, there is something definitely wrong. I just can't pinpoint the problem yet.

[Emmett_Brown]

Its weakening, interesting.

Yup... i just dont think it is done organizing yet. Upper levels are still not great... shear is lessening, but still there, and the close proximity to land is affecting it IMO.

I see this crossing the peninsula of Haiti in the near term as a strong TS or borderline cat 1.

[johngaltfla]

Its weakening, interesting.

I think it's the interaction with Haiti. But that won't last long on that track. Once it's clear of that, I think we'll see the pressures dive a bit.

[rnbaida]

Why isnt the pressure dropping? the pressure was 997mb when winds were at 60mph...and winds are now 75mph and pressure is still 997mb.

[Tampa_God]

I agree with the track. Ernesto will strengthen into a Cat 2 storm before hitting Cube and enter the Gulf strengthening fast. Just wish the track didn't take the storm over my city.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Pressure is where it was at most of the day yesterday.

[rnbaida]

could we see another charley?

[Thunder44]

Why isnt the pressure dropping? the pressure was 997mb when winds were at 60mph...and winds are now 75mph and pressure is still 997mb.

Maybe because it moving too close to Hispanola now. Or they are missing the true center when they drop the dropsondes.

[HURAKAN]

Good post Hurakan:

Do you have the setup for that storm? I can see that track except with a NW movement up the coast rather than out to sea.

WIKIPEDIA:
Flora hit southeast Cuba near Guantanamo Bay also on the 4th, but a high pressure system to its north and another to its west caused Flora to drift over Cuba. It reached the Caribbean again on the 6th, but it again hit Cuba on the 7th. A shortwave trough finally pulled Flora to the northeast, bringing the hurricane into the Atlantic Ocean on the 8th.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Still N of the forecast points. They should have it going out to see just so they can move it back west for everybody on the board who want this thing to hit them.

[Thunder44]

Is now moving NW at 9 mph per 8 AM advisory.

That fits well the vortex fixes this morning.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I's say the inflow in being blocked by the high elevations on Hsp. Also might be still organizing .

[rnbaida]

i dont see how this can get to a cat 3 in the gulf... there is no way. if it spends 1 full day over or near cuba it will weaken by at least 20mph and then it will have 24-48 hours until it hits FL. I only see a high cat 1.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Good post Hurakan:

Do you have the setup for that storm? I can see that track except with a NW movement up the coast rather than out to sea.

WIKIPEDIA:
Flora hit southeast Cuba near Guantanamo Bay also on the 4th, but a high pressure system to its north and another to its west caused Flora to drift over Cuba. It reached the Caribbean again on the 6th, but it again hit Cuba on the 7th. A shortwave trough finally pulled Flora to the northeast, bringing the hurricane into the Atlantic Ocean on the 8th.

So instead of High pressure to Ernesto's west we have S shear and a high pressure to his NE blocking movment to far E.

[drezee]

The system is restructuring itself that is why the pressure is rising. Come on people, the NHC are not idiots. It is a hurricane. The system is restructing itself at the mid-levels right now. This is a common occurence. The low level pressure rises during these cycles and then drops rather rapidly after completion. Expect Ernesto to develop eand eye in the next 6-12 hours and proceed to intensify at a good clip thereafter.

[Air Force Met]

tell me why it wont die off? if it goes over the mountains, is it going to strengthen? you are making no sense!

OK...I'm up...and I will be the first to admit I am very surprised the GFS scored a coup. Crow served. IT's hard to trust it when a few days ago it hard the ridge to end all ridges over the GOM and now it has a trof.

Now you know why we don't trust it...but it is aligned with the others (or the others have aligned with it) and it started the correct trend. I give it props. That's why you NEVER say NEVER in weather.

I think you need to re-define your terms. Kill it means dissipate it in weather-speak. That clearly will NOT happen. If you think it will, cite one example. Cuba does not dissipate storms very efficiently...especially hurricanes...I don't care what path they take. It will weaken them...especially if they go lengthwise...but it by no means will kill it. You need to get the terminology correct. You mean to say weaken it.

Fredrick did not die off over Cuba...and he spent a GREAT deal of time over Hispainiola AND Cuba. Hispainiola is much more destructive than Cuba ever thought about being.

Look how much time Elena spent over Cuba:
Elena

Elena was a TD, not a hurricane...when she went over Cuba. How much better do you think a hurricane will hold together than a weak old depression?