TC Bondo (DISSIPATING)

[Chacor]

Bondo is about to make landfall. Currently -11.7, 49.1 - near the northern tip of Madagascar.

[Chacor]

273
WTIO30 FMEE 231208

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/3/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1200 UTC :
11.7S / 49.1E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/24 00 UTC: 12.6S/48.6E, MAX WIND=070KT.
24H: 2006/12/24 12 UTC: 13.6S/47.8E, MAX WIND=080KT.
36H: 2006/12/25 00 UTC: 14.9S/46.8E, MAX WIND=080KT.
48H: 2006/12/25 12 UTC: 16.4S/45.2E OVERLAND.
60H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 17.8S/43.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 19.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INTENSIFICATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING EYE ON THE VERY LAST SATELLITE
IMAGERY.
IT TRACKS NOW SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLES FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTSARDS ALONG COASTS OF MADAGASCAR
, THEN ACCELERATE UNDER THE STEERING EFFECT OF BOTH THE RIDGE WEST
TOMALAGASHY AND THE TROUGH ON THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANEL.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 49.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 05S HAS INTENSIFIED
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO DUAL-CHANNEL
OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05W WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. BY TAU
36, THE WEAKNESS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO A NEW POSITION OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RE-ORIENTS IN
RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 48. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. TC 05S WILL WEAKEN AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48 DUE TO COMPETING INFLUENCES OF GOOD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND DISRUPTION OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW BY THE TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 31200Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.//
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[P.K.]

Forecast takes Bondo back up to 85kts.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/3/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/23 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 48.7E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 300 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 050 NO: 050

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/24 06 UTC: 12.4S/48.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/12/24 18 UTC: 13.3S/47.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/12/25 06 UTC: 14.1S/46.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 15.0S/45.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 15.9S/44.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 16.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0+
SYSTEM RE-ORGANIZATION GOES ON WITH A BUILDING BANDING EYE IN A CURVED
BAND PATTERN OF 12 TENS.
BONDO COULD BE UPGRADED BACK TO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING VERY SLOWLY AND GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS
AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY
COASTLINE.
UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A WEAK VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR AND OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE CHANNEL, BONDO IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY.
THIS SCENARIO MAKES PEOPLE OF THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE EXPOSED
BUT AN UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
INDEED, PROXIMITY OF THE COASTLINE COULD REDUCE THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND
IN THIS WAY ITS POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.

[P.K.]

Back up to 70kts.

[Chacor]

There seems to be an eye feature in the eastern blob of convection in Bondo (yeah, there seem to be two separate blobs)

[JonathanBelles]

funny how it is going around madagascar. what are the water temps in that area?

[Chacor]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wm5shr.GIF

Low shear...

most models are initialising temps in the Mozambique Channel from 29-32 C.

[JonathanBelles]

heading into heavy shear.

[wxmann_91]

heading into heavy shear.

shear changes. It's heavy now, but not necessarily when it moves into that area.

[JonathanBelles]

heading into heavy shear.

shear changes. It's heavy now, but not necessarily when it moves into that area.

true, i was going on what i saw.

[Ptarmigan]

This tropical cyclone sure does not want to die. It was not even forecast to even strengthen. It shows how hard it is to forecast strengthening.

[P.K.]

Up to 75kts.

HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 24/12/2006 AT
1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 028/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 24/12/2006 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (BONDO) 960 HPA
POSITION: 13.2S / 47.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES
EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE , EXTENDING
VERY LOCALLY UP TO 250 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 20
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 35 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS
FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2006/12/25 AT 00 UTC:
14.1S / 46.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H, VALID 2006/12/25 AT 12 UTC:
15.0S / 45.8E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS ALONG MALAGASY COASTS.
IT REMAINS VERY SMALL WITH CYCLONINC CONDITIONS MAINLY PRESENT IN THE EYE
WALL, IN A 20NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
IT SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND MAKE LANDFALL AT THIS
INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS NEAR MAHAJENGA.

[Chacor]

Forecast to make landfall, but restrengthen to a Moderate TS after emerging over water.

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 47.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A SLIGHTLY DOMINANT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF MADAGASCAR IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE ISLAND. SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AIDED BY
ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WARM SEAS OF THE MOZ-
AMBIQUE CHANNEL. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT
INTERACTION WITH LAND AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD SUFFIC-
IENTLY OFFSET THESE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES TO PRODUCE A SLOW
WEAKENING. AFTER TAU 24, CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ARE
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MORE RAPID WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z AND
251500Z.//
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JTWC now expect rapid weakening (55 kt in 48 hours).

[Chacor]

Hmm, there's still an eye feature. RSMC MF have now issued 28 warnings, so it's relatively long-lasting.

[HURAKAN]

I know it's old, but not long ago the eye was still perfectly formed.

[Chacor]

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/25 18 UTC: 16.1S/45.8E OVERLAND.
24H: 2006/12/26 06 UTC: 18.2S/44.3E OVERLAND.
36H: 2006/12/26 18 UTC: 20.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2006/12/27 06 UTC: 23.3S/42.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP.
STORM
.
60H: 2006/12/27 18 UTC: 25.4S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2006/12/28 06 UTC: 26.5S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5+
BONDO KEEPS ON TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTS AND
SHOULD
MAKE A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MAHAJUNGA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THE INTERACTION WITH LAND DISORANIZES THE LOWER LEVEL INFLOW, THE
LANDING
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM "BONDO" RATHER QUICKLY ;
NEVERTHELESS,
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIPHERY OF "BONDO".
UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN
THE
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS,
GRADUALLY ACCELERATING.=

70 kt 965 hPa, T3.5/4.5 (W1.5/12HRS)

[P.K.]

Down to a STS.

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/3/20062007
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BONDO)

2.A POSITION 2006/12/25 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2S / 46.4E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.0 /W 1.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 120 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 020 SO: 030 NO: 030

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/12/26 00 UTC: 16.7S/45.1E OVERLAND.
24H: 2006/12/26 12 UTC: 18.8S/43.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2006/12/27 00 UTC: 21.6S/42.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
48H: 2006/12/27 12 UTC: 24.0S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
60H: 2006/12/28 00 UTC: 25.7S/42.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.
72H: 2006/12/28 12 UTC: 26.9S/42.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP.
DEPRESSION.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=3.5+, CI=4.0+
BONDO SHOULD MAKE A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MAHAJUNGA IN THE NEXT
FEW
HOURS.
LAND INTERACTION DISORANIZES THE LOWER LEVEL INFLOW. HOWEVER HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE LIKELY IN THE PERIPHERY OF "BONDO".
UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN
THE
SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS,
GRADUALLY ACCELERATING.
BONDO IS FORECASTED TO BE BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.=

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 46.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05S (BONDO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
EIGHT KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS TRACKING SOUTH-
WESTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE WESTERN PERI-
PHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME DEVIATIONS IN TRACK POSSIBLE AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS
OVER LAND BUT COULD REEMERGE OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WITH
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO RETAIN STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE,
AS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING VERTI-
CAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION
AFTER THE SYSTEM REENTERS THE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND
261500Z.//

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