Thinking Extreme Southern Gulf Next Week

[gtalum]

I have to hand it to you BerwickBay. Whatever happens to 92L now, you sure made a nice call way early!

[LAwxrgal]

BerwickBay, while you're at it... what are the lotto numbers?

[Berwick Bay]

First, I must thank so many of you for those very kind words. Now upon looking at the latest visible loop which I posted on the invest thread, I think this system is going to surprise many and be upgraded to Depression status perhaps later tonight. The loop shows quite a bit more organization, with a storm headed north toward the west tip of Cuba. Need I say it one more time?? I look for an upgrade very near the west tip of Cuba at the extreme southern end of the Gulf (to depression status). If so this would confirm in detail my forecast of ten days ago for depression status within the last days of May at the southern entrance to the Gulf. Lets see how it works out.

[N2FSU]

Nice work Berwick!

[gatorcane]

First, I must thank so many of you for those very kind words. Now upon looking at the latest visible loop which I posted on the invest thread, I think this system is going to surprise many and be upgraded to Depression status perhaps later tonight. The loop shows quite a bit more organization, with a storm headed north toward the west tip of Cuba. Need I say it one more time?? I look for an upgrade very near the west tip of Cuba at the extreme southern end of the Gulf (to depression status). If so this would confirm in detail my forecast of ten days ago for depression status within the last days of May at the southern entrance to the Gulf. Lets see how it works out.

I would have to agree. Even with 20K+ of shear it could easily form into a depression.

Sat presentation is looking better this afternoon.

Also, this type of situation in June is very typical.

[sunnyday]

You did such a neat job prediciting this one. I agreed with your idea all along. Now, however, I have a feeling, and that's all it is, of course, that the rain will go to the north and west of south Florida. Max Mayfield said something similar. What do you think of that possibility?

[Berwick Bay]

Sunnyday, I really haven't looked much at the future course for this system. Which is strange. In seasons gone by, I attempted to forecast direction. With this storm (for the first time) I made an attempt at forecasting tropical formation in a specific area, well in advance of the time frame involved. I think this is a much harder thing to do than predicting course. My hunch about rainfall is that the storm is large enough, that even if it took more of a northerly course (instead of NNE), that Miami and S Fl would still get significant rainfall (being on the east or messy side of the system).

[sunnyday]

Thanks for the info. You really did a great job with this.

[hawkeh]

Good forecast, you nailed it.