INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#81 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 31, 2007 11:20 am

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#82 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 31, 2007 11:29 am

Come on baby!

Image
0 likes   
Michael
Top
B'hamBlazer
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Birmingham, AL

#83 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 11:29 am

Here are the NAM 60hr precipitation totals...

Image

Certainly hope so...
0 likes   
Top
Opal storm

#84 Postby Opal storm » Thu May 31, 2007 11:32 am

Trust me you do not want THAT MUCH rain. 5-10 inches in a day will put you from a drought to extreme flooding in a snap. The ground is too dry to absorb that much water in so little time.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

#85 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu May 31, 2007 11:34 am

Opal storm wrote:Trust me you do not want THAT MUCH rain. 5-10 inches in a day will put you from a drought to extreme flooding in a snap. The ground is too dry to absorb that much water in so little time.


Honestly, it would be better than being on fire. In Florida, with all that sandy soil, the effect of dry soil doesn't have as much effect as it would where there is clay.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SWFLA_CANE
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 196
Joined: Tue Jun 06, 2006 6:41 pm
Location: Naples, Florida

#86 Postby SWFLA_CANE » Thu May 31, 2007 11:34 am

Cloud tops have warmed in the past few hours...wouldn't surprise me to see it go poof in the next 24 hours.
0 likes   
Top
Opal storm

#87 Postby Opal storm » Thu May 31, 2007 11:36 am

SWFLA_CANE wrote:Cloud tops have warmed in the past few hours...wouldn't surprise me to see it go poof in the next 24 hours.
The convection will pulse on and off, very normal in weak systems like this.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:
Contact windstorm99

#88 Postby windstorm99 » Thu May 31, 2007 11:39 am

some models

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TrekkerCC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 263
Joined: Sat Sep 06, 2003 10:19 pm
Location: North Central Texas (Dallas Area)

#89 Postby TrekkerCC » Thu May 31, 2007 11:40 am

Opal storm wrote:Trust me you do not want THAT MUCH rain. 5-10 inches in a day will put you from a drought to extreme flooding in a snap. The ground is too dry to absorb that much water in so little time.


When has the NAM ever been right this far out? :D I know that you folks in Florida need the rain, but I hope that it doesn't cause too many problems. The invest looks very nice right now. I am still a bit puzzled over the STDS, as it appears to me that the Gulf is very hostile right now (wind shear). Does any of the model guidance slacken the mid level shear over the gulf?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
windstorm99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1578
Age: 47
Joined: Sat May 26, 2007 8:10 am
Location: Miami, Florida
Contact:
Contact windstorm99

#90 Postby windstorm99 » Thu May 31, 2007 11:40 am

NHC graphic...

Image
0 likes   
Top
canes04
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 302
Joined: Sat May 22, 2004 5:41 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#91 Postby canes04 » Thu May 31, 2007 11:41 am

I'm sure all us Floridians are saying bring on rain!! The Lake is at an all time low.
Hopefully this forcast plays out. Bring it on!!
0 likes   
Top
B'hamBlazer
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Birmingham, AL

#92 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 11:42 am

How much of a rainfall deficit do yall have?
0 likes   
Top
Opal storm

#93 Postby Opal storm » Thu May 31, 2007 11:42 am

Will Barbara have any affects on 92L?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5336
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#94 Postby Nimbus » Thu May 31, 2007 11:42 am

This morning with the forecast shear, it looked more like it would be a fast moving hybrid storm.

The forecast MSLP now looks too symmetrical for a storm experiencing shear.

Those visibles are beginning to look a little scary the way the convection seems to be curling around and overcoming the shear.
0 likes   
Top
Scorpion

#95 Postby Scorpion » Thu May 31, 2007 11:44 am

I really dont want the rain now.... theres a few outdoor parties that I am attending this weekend
0 likes   
Top
B'hamBlazer
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:57 am
Location: Birmingham, AL

#96 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu May 31, 2007 11:44 am

What a huge area of convection that has flared up...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
jdray
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 853
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 10:07 pm
Location: NE Florida

#97 Postby jdray » Thu May 31, 2007 11:44 am

B'hamBlazer wrote:How much of a rainfall deficit do yall have?


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... addpcp.gif

Nice graph showing how much rain is needed in areas to bring Drought Indexes back to near normal levels.
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#98 Postby Rainband » Thu May 31, 2007 11:45 am

looks like a disorganized mess to me.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dizzyfish
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1519
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 7:56 am
Location: New Port Richey, FL

#99 Postby dizzyfish » Thu May 31, 2007 11:47 am

From the SPC....

...FL...

MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST IN BRINGING UPPER LOW INTO THE FL
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...AS THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES...MODELS BRING STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN THIS REGION
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
UNCERTAINTY EXIST REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY GIVEN EXPECTED
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. THIS ALONG WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING OF UPPER LOW PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK MAY BE
NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ivanhater
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 11162
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Jul 01, 2005 8:25 am
Location: Pensacola

#100 Postby Ivanhater » Thu May 31, 2007 11:47 am

Rainband wrote:looks like a disorganized mess to me.


Ya and there was almost nothing there 16 hours ago and now look....they all start out a mess :wink:
0 likes   
Michael
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cajungal, Kingarabian, LarryWx and 36 guests